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Banga vs Suduva Marijampole Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 15:45
Final 0-3
Banga
Banga
Vs
36%
31%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

This Lithuania: A Lyga match between Banga and Suduva Marijampole is finely balanced, with Banga coming off a win and Suduva Marijampole also having a recent victory. Despite this, Banga's home form against stronger opponents has been somewhat concerning, with an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suduva Marijampole, on the other hand, has been impressive away against weaker teams, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding none.

The model predicts a home win for Banga, with a 36% chance of this outcome, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance of an away win. The expected total goals is 2.3, and the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%.

The model's selection is the Under 3.5 total goals, with an 80.6% probability, and a 4% edge. This selection is also the most likely outcome, with 80.6% probability. The Under 3.5 total goals is also the model's selection. Banga has a 36% chance of winning, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 33% chance of losing. The model's selection, Under 3.5, has a 80.6% probability and the model's selection, Home win, has a 36% chance of winning, the model's selection, Under 3.5, has a 80.6% probability.

Results analysis

The away team, Suduva Marijampole, pulled off a stunning upset with a 0-3 win over the home side, Banga, extending their winning run to three games, having previously defeated Banga 3-0. This result comes as a surprise, given that the home team had been coming off a defeat, but their recent form had shown a note-worthy resilience. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 36%. The model's call was wrong. The model's other selection, Under 3.5, hit, with a probability of 80.6%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Banga win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied 36.5% · @ 2.45
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.59
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 2.94
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.10
Dafabet
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Suduva Marijampole win✓ Hit
32.9%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.70
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.75

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BangaBanga

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D31W22D60W00D40W00D31W01L31WH·PAN18/10A·ŠIA22/10A·FK 26/10H·DAI02/11A·KAU08/11A·VIL21/04A·DŽI20/05A·TRA12/07A·DŽI19/07A·ŠIA03/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.031.001.001.321.05
vs Stronger (11)0.271.450.001.400.501.50
vs Similar (18)1.610.831.830.671.500.92
vs Weaker (1)4.000.00--4.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L00D00D21W10W22D12L22D00D51WH·FK 29/09A·FK 04/10A·DŽI18/10H·DAI23/10H·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.101.601.201.331.00
vs Stronger (7)1.001.001.001.251.000.67
vs Similar (21)1.521.101.821.181.201.00
vs Weaker (2)2.501.50--2.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.36+0.8%
Under 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.73-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.5%
@ 2.17-2.6%
Under 2.5
60.5%
@ 1.58+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Under
Unibet
1.67
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.4%
@ 3.94-3.7%
Under 3.5
80.6%
@ 1.18+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
@ 1.87-1.5%
No
52.7%
@ 1.78+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
No
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betfair
1.80

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.35+6.7%
0-0
11.7%@ 6.87+5.5%
1-0
10.7%@ 6.48+4.1%
0-1
10.1%@ 6.79+3.8%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.96+3.0%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.52+2.9%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.54+3.0%
0-2
6.3%@ 11.66+2.7%
Banga goals ↓
Suduva Marijampole goals →
01234
012%10%6.3%2.3%0.6%
111%15%7.3%2.7%0.7%
27.0%7.7%4.3%1.6%0.4%
32.7%3.0%1.7%0.6%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = Suduva Marijampole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Banga is 1.29 points worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 2.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Banga is 1.08 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Banga is 1.17 goals worse than Suduva Marijampole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D21W20W00D20W00D11D01L21WH·PAN18/10A·ŠIA22/10A·FK 26/10H·DAI02/11A·KAU08/11A·VIL21/04A·DŽI20/05A·TRA12/07A·DŽI19/07A·ŠIA03/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.370.450.450.630.32
vs Stronger (11)0.090.450.000.400.170.50
vs Similar (18)0.780.330.830.500.750.25
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D00D00D00D01L00D01L00D30WH·FK 29/09A·FK 04/10A·DŽI18/10H·DAI23/10H·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.430.530.600.470.27
vs Stronger (7)0.140.570.250.750.000.33
vs Similar (21)0.570.380.640.550.500.20
vs Weaker (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BangaBanga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W31W01L40W00D20W00D20W00D10WH·PAN18/10A·ŠIA22/10A·FK 26/10H·DAI02/11A·KAU08/11A·VIL21/04A·DŽI20/05A·TRA12/07A·DŽI19/07A·ŠIA03/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.550.550.680.74
vs Stronger (11)0.181.000.001.000.331.00
vs Similar (18)0.830.501.000.170.750.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Suduva Marijampole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D21W10W21W12L21W00D21WH·FK 29/09A·FK 04/10A·DŽI18/10H·DAI23/10H·KAU27/10H·ŠIA02/11A·HEG08/11A·MIN28/04H·TRA06/07H·HEG20/07
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.671.070.600.870.73
vs Stronger (7)0.860.430.750.501.000.33
vs Similar (21)0.950.711.180.640.700.80
vs Weaker (2)1.501.00--1.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suduva Marijampole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.6%1.18
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+3.7%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Banga and Suduva Marijampole have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
BAN wins
1
Draws
6
SM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Banga vs Suduva Marijampole · H/A from BAN
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/25HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-1
17/08/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN2-1
11/05/25HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-1
09/03/25ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN1-0
27/10/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN2-0
02/08/24HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole1-0
01/06/24ASuduva Marijampole Vs BAN1-0
10/04/24HBAN Vs Suduva Marijampole0-0

BangaBanga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26AŠiauliai Vs BAN1-3
19/07/26ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BAN1-0
12/07/26ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BAN1-3
20/05/26ADžiugas Telšiai Vs BAN0-0
21/04/26AVilniaus Vytis Vs BAN0-4
08/11/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs BAN0-0
02/11/25HBAN Vs Dainava6-0
26/10/25AFK Trakai Vs BAN2-2
22/10/25AŠiauliai Vs BAN1-3
18/10/25HBAN Vs Panevėžys2-2

Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/26HSM Vs Hegelmann Litauen5-1
06/07/26HSM Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-0
28/04/26AMinija Vs SM2-2
08/11/25AHegelmann Litauen Vs SM2-1
02/11/25HSM Vs Šiauliai2-2
27/10/25HSM Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-0
23/10/25HSM Vs Dainava2-1
18/10/25ADžiugas Telšiai Vs SM0-0
04/10/25AFK Trakai Vs SM0-0
29/09/25HSM Vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Banga
Banga
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.16
HomeLLLDW1.00
AwayWDWLW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%26%33%
AVG goals2.162.092.22
Over 1.5 %64%65%63%
Over 2.5 %34%26%41%
Over 3.5 %20%13%26%
Scored1.060.961.15
Conceded1.101.131.07
BTTS34%30%37%
Clean Sheet30%26%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
Lithuania: A Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDW1.66
HomeWWDDW1.88
AwayDDDLD1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.482.252.69
Over 1.5 %68%58%77%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.481.461.50
Conceded1.000.791.19
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet42%50%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Suduva MarijampoleSuduva Marijampole616
83%
2.7
142+12
2.7
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2122.30.3
-
2FK Zalgiris VilniusFK Zalgiris Vilnius612
67%
2.0
138+5
3.5
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2332.21.3
-
3Kauno ŽalgirisKauno Žalgiris511
60%
2.2
101+9
2.2
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4242.00.2
-
4PanevėžysPanevėžys811
38%
1.4
98+1
2.1
88%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.11.0
-
5TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius811
38%
1.4
910-1
2.4
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.2
-
6BangaBanga811
38%
1.4
1012-2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.21.5
-
7Džiugas TelšiaiDžiugas Telšiai78
29%
1.1
811-3
2.7
71%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.11.6
-
8Hegelmann LitauenHegelmann Litauen86
12%
0.8
1016-6
3.2
100%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.22.0
-
9ŠiauliaiŠiauliai83
12%
0.4
621-15
3.4
88%
75%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2230.82.6
-
10FK TrakaiFK Trakai00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →

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