TransINVEST Vilnius are the clear favourites, with the model picking an away win. The match is expected to see about 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% chance. Banga, playing at home against a stronger side, has not scored in their last five matches and concedes an average of one goal per game. TransINVEST Vilnius, on the road against a weaker opponent, average 3.6 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded. The home win probability is 26%, a draw 28%, and an away win 45%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.4%) and Under 4.5 (88.0%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Banga win
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius win
45.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Banga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
0.85
1.15
1.47
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.43
vs Similar (17)
1.47
1.06
1.38
1.25
1.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
0.87
2.14
0.93
2.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.70
0.90
1.50
0.75
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (20)
3.00
0.85
2.40
1.00
3.60
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Banga goals ↓
TransINVEST Vilnius goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
10%
8.4%
4.2%
1.6%
1
7.0%
14%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.5%
6.7%
5.0%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Banga goals (down), columns = TransINVEST Vilnius goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.67
Kauno Žalgiris
2.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.38
Banga
1.38
Panevėžys
1.38
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
Hegelmann Litauen
0.75
Šiauliai
0.38
Banga and TransINVEST Vilnius are level in average points per game (both 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Suduva Marijampole
2.33
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.17
Kauno Žalgiris
2.00
Banga
1.25
Hegelmann Litauen
1.25
Džiugas Telšiai
1.14
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.12
Panevėžys
1.12
Šiauliai
0.75
Banga is 0.12 goals better than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kauno Žalgiris
0.20
Suduva Marijampole
0.33
Panevėžys
1.00
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.33
Banga
1.50
Džiugas Telšiai
1.57
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Šiauliai
2.62
Banga is 0.25 goals worse than TransINVEST Vilnius in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Banga or Draw
54.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
45%
covers Banga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banga or TransINVEST Vilnius
71.7%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
45%
covers Banga + TransINVEST Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius
73.6%
Avg Implied -
26%
28%
45%
covers Draw + TransINVEST Vilnius
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Banga over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Banga, so a minus line means Banga give that many goals of a start and TransINVEST Vilnius receive them. At -1, Banga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Banga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Banga)
Banga -2
3.2%
Draw -2
7.4%
TransINVEST Vilnius +2
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Banga)
Banga -1
10.6%
Draw -1
15.8%
TransINVEST Vilnius +1
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Banga)
Banga +1
54.7%
Draw +1
22.1%
TransINVEST Vilnius -1
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Banga)
Banga +2
76.8%
Draw +2
14.1%
TransINVEST Vilnius -2
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Banga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.71
0.41
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.62
0.75
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
1.00
0.43
1.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.45
1.20
0.50
1.90
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Banga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.46
0.54
0.76
0.65
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.00
0.60
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (TransINVEST Vilnius) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
TransINVEST Vilnius
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.56
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Banga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Banga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
TransINVEST Vilnius over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (27)
€10m
FZV (29)
€7m
PAN (28)
€6m
ŠIA (28)
€6m
SM (26)
€6m
BAN (22)
€6m
HL (22)
€6m
TV (24)
€5m
DT (22)
€5m
Banga and TransINVEST Vilnius have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (11)
€4m
SM (10)
€2m
BAN (7)
€2m
TV (8)
€2m
FZV (9)
€2m
PAN (8)
€2m
HL (6)
€2m
ŠIA (7)
€2m
DT (5)
€1m
Banga and TransINVEST Vilnius have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FZV (8)
€3m
PAN (7)
€2m
DT (7)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
ŠIA (10)
€2m
HL (7)
€2m
BAN (5)
€1m
SM (5)
€1m
TV (5)
€1m
Banga and TransINVEST Vilnius have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KŽ (12)
€4m
FZV (12)
€3m
ŠIA (11)
€3m
PAN (13)
€2m
TV (11)
€2m
HL (9)
€2m
SM (11)
€2m
BAN (10)
€2m
DT (10)
€2m
Banga and TransINVEST Vilnius have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Lithuania: A Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: A Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Suduva Marijampole
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
Hegelmann Litauen
Šiauliai
FK Trakai