The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with Dungannon Swifts holding a 43% chance of victory, Bangor 30%, and a draw 27%. The expected total goals hover around 2.8, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% probability. Bangor, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.07 conceded, while Dungannon Swifts on the road average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Recent form underlines the narrative: Bangor has suffered five straight defeats, losing 0-4 to Carrick Rangers, whereas Dungannon Swifts are on a three-game winning streak, beating Cliftonville FC 2-0. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (93.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away +2 handicap (86.8%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.4%), and Under 4.5 (84.3%). These picks reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, defensive encounter with the Swifts edging the match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bangor win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win
42.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bangor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.00
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.77
0.71
2.07
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.64
1.64
0.94
2.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
3.50
0.75
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.30
2.00
1.20
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
Under 2.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.0%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Bangor goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.9%
7.0%
3.6%
1.4%
1
6.4%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.9%
7.5%
5.8%
3.0%
1.2%
3
2.1%
3.2%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bangor goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Bangor is 0.24 points worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Bangor is 0.09 goals worse than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Bangor is 0.29 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bangor or Draw
57.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
42%
covers Bangor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor or Dungannon Swifts
72.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
42%
covers Bangor + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
69.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
27%
42%
covers Draw + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bangor over/under 0.5
Over
72.4%
Under
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
78.8%
Under
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bangor, so a minus line means Bangor give that many goals of a start and Dungannon Swifts receive them. At -1, Bangor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bangor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bangor)
Bangor -2
4.6%
Draw -2
9.0%
Dungannon Swifts +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bangor)
Bangor -1
13.6%
Draw -1
16.9%
Dungannon Swifts +1
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bangor)
Bangor +1
57.7%
Draw +1
20.5%
Dungannon Swifts -1
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bangor)
Bangor +2
78.2%
Draw +2
13.1%
Dungannon Swifts -2
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bangor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.92
0.21
1.00
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
1.07
0.64
0.25
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bangor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bangor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.85
0.50
1.07
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.57
1.00
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.00
1.75
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bangor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Bangor and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown