Baník Ostrava II are tipped to lift the trophy at home, the model picking a home win with a 45 % chance, a draw at 27 % and an away win at 28 %. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13 %. Baník’s home form shows they average 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against similar opposition, while Žastí nad Labem, playing away, average 1.69 goals scored and 1.92 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.2 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7 %, Under 5.5 at 93.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.5 %, Home +2 handicap at 88.3 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 88.2 % and Under 4.5 at 85.3 %. Baník are coming off a defeat to Arsenal Česká Lípa, while Žastí are unbeaten in their last five, having beaten Dukla Praha 3-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baník Ostrava II win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Baník Ostrava II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.19
1.06
1.71
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.53
1.09
1.27
1.12
1.88
vs Weaker (11)
2.00
0.82
1.40
0.60
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ústí nad Labem
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
1.79
1.14
1.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.40
1.82
1.00
1.57
1.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
1.67
1.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Ostrava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.4%
No
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
7.1%
2-2
5.3%
Baník Ostrava II goals ↓
Ústí nad Labem goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.1%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.2%
13%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.0%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.8%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Baník Ostrava II goals (down), columns = Ústí nad Labem goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ústí nad Labem
2.33
Karviná
2.00
Slavia Praha II
2.00
Příbram
2.00
Táborsko
1.83
Dukla Praha
1.67
Kladno
1.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.33
Baník Ostrava II
1.17
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Opava
1.00
Vlašim
1.00
Prostějov
0.83
Hanácká
0.67
Třinec
0.67
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Baník Ostrava II is 1.17 points worse than Ústí nad Labem in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Slavia Praha II
2.67
Karviná
2.00
Dukla Praha
1.83
Baník Ostrava II
1.83
Ústí nad Labem
1.83
Příbram
1.83
Vlašim
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.50
Táborsko
1.33
Opava
1.33
Prostějov
1.33
Kladno
1.33
Vysočina Jihlava
1.17
Třinec
1.00
Hanácká
0.50
Viktoria Žižkov
0.50
Baník Ostrava II and Ústí nad Labem are level in goals scored per game (both 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Táborsko
0.67
Ústí nad Labem
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava
1.00
Karviná
1.17
Kladno
1.17
Baník Ostrava II
1.33
Příbram
1.33
Dukla Praha
1.50
Prostějov
1.50
Vlašim
1.50
Opava
1.67
Slavia Praha II
1.67
Třinec
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.00
Hanácká
2.17
Viktoria Žižkov
2.50
Baník Ostrava II is 0.50 goals worse than Ústí nad Labem in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Baník Ostrava II or Draw
71.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Baník Ostrava II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II or Ústí nad Labem
71.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Baník Ostrava II + Ústí nad Labem
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ústí nad Labem
57.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Ústí nad Labem
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 1.5
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 2.5
Over
18.5%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5
Over
69.0%
Under
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Baník Ostrava II, so a minus line means Baník Ostrava II give that many goals of a start and Ústí nad Labem receive them. At -1, Baník Ostrava II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Baník Ostrava II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Baník Ostrava II)
Baník Ostrava II -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.2%
Ústí nad Labem +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Baník Ostrava II)
Baník Ostrava II -1
21.6%
Draw -1
21.3%
Ústí nad Labem +1
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Baník Ostrava II)
Baník Ostrava II +1
71.1%
Draw +1
16.7%
Ústí nad Labem -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Baník Ostrava II)
Baník Ostrava II +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.4%
Ústí nad Labem -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Baník Ostrava II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.79
0.27
0.64
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.18
0.20
0.20
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ústí nad Labem
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.36
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.60
0.91
0.36
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.20
1.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Ostrava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Baník Ostrava II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.94
0.56
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.74
0.82
0.64
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.64
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ústí nad Labem) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ústí nad Labem
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.79
0.79
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.80
0.91
0.64
0.71
0.93
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.33
1.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Baník Ostrava II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baník Ostrava II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ústí nad Labem over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (26)
€11m
KAR (24)
€7m
DP (29)
€7m
VLA (22)
€4m
BOI (17)
€3m
TÁB (23)
€3m
PRO (25)
€3m
VJ (18)
€3m
VŽ (22)
€3m
ÚNL (22)
€3m
OPA (21)
€3m
HAN (24)
€2m
PŘÍ (21)
€2m
KLA (11)
€2m
AČL (9)
€1m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Baník Ostrava II and Ústí nad Labem have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (11)
€4m
DP (13)
€3m
SPI (8)
€3m
VLA (8)
€2m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
BOI (6)
€1m
OPA (7)
€1m
TÁB (7)
€1m
VJ (4)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
VŽ (5)
€1m
AČL (3)
€0m
KLA (4)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Baník Ostrava II and Ústí nad Labem have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (5)
€2m
DP (6)
€1m
VŽ (9)
€1m
VJ (6)
€1m
VLA (5)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
PRO (7)
€1m
TÁB (6)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
ÚNL (6)
€1m
HAN (7)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
BOI (3)
€1m
KLA (2)
€1m
AČL (2)
€0m
TŘI (0)
€0m
Baník Ostrava II and Ústí nad Labem have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SPI (13)
€6m
KAR (9)
€2m
DP (10)
€2m
BOI (8)
€2m
TÁB (10)
€1m
VLA (9)
€1m
PRO (11)
€1m
VJ (8)
€1m
VŽ (8)
€1m
HAN (10)
€1m
OPA (9)
€1m
PŘÍ (7)
€1m
KLA (5)
€1m
ÚNL (8)
€1m
AČL (4)
€0m
TŘI (3)
€0m
Baník Ostrava II and Ústí nad Labem have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Czech-Republic: FNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Czech-Republic: FNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Slavia Praha II
Karviná
Příbram
Táborsko
Dukla Praha
Kladno
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Vysočina Jihlava
Vlašim
Opava
Prostějov
Třinec
Hanácká
Viktoria Žižkov