Barnet’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels optimism as they host Cheltenham, who are returning from a defeat. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% chance. Home advantage is clear: Barnet average 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition, while Cheltenham average 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded on the road. The favoured result is a Barnet win, with a 58% chance, followed by a draw at 22% and a Cheltenham win at 20%. Suggested picks include “Away under 2.5 HT goals” at 99.2%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” at 98.5% with a 6% edge, “Under 7.5” at 97.9%, “Away under 3.5 goals” at 96.7% with a 1% edge, “Under 6.5” at 94.6%, “Away under 1.5 HT goals” at 92.7% with a 2% edge, “Home under 2.5 HT goals” at 92.7% with a 2% edge, and “Home +2 handicap” at 92.1% with no edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Barnet, failed to deliver as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent form streaks. The model had picked a home win with a 58% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. Every suggested selection was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.5%, Under 7.5 hit at 97.9%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 96.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 94.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.4%, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.4%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 92.1%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, except for the home win call.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barnet win✗ Miss
58.3%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.61
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Dafabet
1.62
Betano
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Draw✓ Hit
22.2%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.73
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Dafabet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Cheltenham win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied 17.3% · @ 5.35
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.34
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.64
Dafabet
5.60
Betano
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barnet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.27
1.86
1.29
1.56
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.70
1.27
1.86
1.29
1.56
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.80
1.44
1.75
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.80
1.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.60
1.54
1.54
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.24+10.3%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 3.76-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.04
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.79+12.4%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 1.98-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Betfair
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.9%
@ 2.83+10.1%
Under 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.38-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.5%
@ 1.77+10.1%
No
37.5%
@ 1.94-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%@ 6.91+3.5%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.45+3.8%
2-0
8.2%@ 7.43+2.2%
3-1
7.0%@ 11.83+3.2%
1-0
6.7%@ 6.55-0.1%
3-0
5.9%@ 11.58+2.0%
2-2 ✓
5.8%@ 14.23+2.7%
1-2
5.4%@ 15.24+2.5%
Barnet goals ↓
Cheltenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.7%
10.0%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.2%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.9%
7.0%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
4
3.1%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barnet goals (down), columns = Cheltenham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Barnet is 0.52 points better than Cheltenham in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Barnet is 0.37 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Barnet is 0.57 goals better than Cheltenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Barnet is 7.6 percentage points better than Cheltenham in terms of average possession (56% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barnet
For 6.7 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
For 5.0 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 11.1 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnet
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.0
10.5
3.5
3.2
3.7
24.0
23.9
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.3
10.0
10.5
3.5
3.2
3.7
24.0
23.9
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
54%
60%
50%
42%
58%
67%
58%
76%
% under line
43%
46%
40%
50%
58%
42%
33%
42%
24%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.8
3.3
3.1
3.5
22.2
23.3
20.9
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
10.8
9.0
2.6
1.8
4.0
21.1
19.5
23.3
vs Similar (41)
9.7
9.5
9.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.3
24.0
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
56%
57%
44%
41%
48%
54%
64%
43%
% under line
44%
44%
43%
56%
59%
52%
46%
36%
57%
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.6%
@ 1.60-6.0%
Under 9.5
48.4%
@ 2.18+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.1%
Under 3.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.6%
Under 21.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barnet or Draw✓ Hit
80.5%
Avg Implied 82.1% · @ 1.13
Edge
-1.6%
58%
22%
20%
covers Barnet + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Barnet or Cheltenham✗ Miss
77.8%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.23
Edge
+2.1%
58%
22%
20%
covers Barnet + Cheltenham
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Cheltenham✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.20
Edge
-0.5%
58%
22%
20%
covers Draw + Cheltenham
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barnet over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.3%
@ 1.12+5.4%
Under
11.7%
@ 5.47-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.25
Barnet over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
63.3%
@ 1.67+7.4%
Under
36.7%
@ 2.11-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Barnet over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 3.08+6.2%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.33-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Pinnacle
3.09
Under
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Barnet over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 6.88+3.5%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.08-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Cheltenham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.7%
@ 1.55+9.6%
Under
30.3%
@ 2.32-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Cheltenham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.5%
@ 3.71+8.4%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.24-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Cheltenham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 10.27+2.8%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.03-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Cheltenham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 25.83-0.4%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
31.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barnet, so a minus line means Barnet give that many goals of a start and Cheltenham receive them. At -1, Barnet must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barnet win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barnet)Actual: Cheltenham
Barnet -2
18.9%
@ 5.05+1.2%
Draw -2
17.8%
@ 4.55-1.8%
Cheltenham +2
63.3%
@ 1.43+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Away
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Handicap -1 (Barnet)Actual: Cheltenham
Barnet -1
36.7%
@ 2.60+2.5%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.46-4.1%
Cheltenham +1
41.7%
@ 2.22+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Draw
Marathonbet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Away
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Handicap +1 (Barnet)Actual: Barnet
Barnet +1
80.5%
@ 1.13+2.4%
Draw +1
11.6%
@ 6.39-2.3%
Cheltenham -1
7.9%
@ 11.05-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Barnet)Actual: Barnet
Barnet +2
92.1%
@ 1.03+0.2%
Draw +2
5.5%
@ 16.00-0.4%
Cheltenham -2
2.5%
@ 42.50+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barnet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
1.07
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.57
1.07
0.57
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.00
0.38
0.94
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.80
0.38
0.62
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.35+6.5%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 2.99-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.24
Superbet
3.15
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.8%
@ 2.56+5.6%
Under 1.5
58.2%
@ 1.45-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 6.25+0.4%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Under
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barnet over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
64.6%
@ 1.65+8.4%
Under
35.4%
@ 2.12-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Barnet over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.4%
@ 4.07+2.6%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.20-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Barnet over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 10.50-2.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.73+2.0%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.40-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
Superbet
2.67
Under
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 10.04-1.7%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 45.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barnet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.70
0.79
0.71
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
0.70
0.79
0.71
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.06
0.81
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.80
1.15
0.92
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.9%
@ 1.21+5.9%
Under 0.5
17.1%
@ 4.03-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.7%
@ 1.98+5.6%
Under 1.5
47.3%
@ 1.76-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.5%
@ 4.01+0.3%
Under 2.5
76.5%
@ 1.21-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betano
3.80
1xBet
3.68
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barnet over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
68.6%
@ 1.45+4.5%
Under
31.4%
@ 2.58-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.70
Betano
2.65
Superbet
2.52
10Bet
2.45
Barnet over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.7%
@ 3.05+0.3%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.33-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Superbet
3.15
Betano
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Barnet over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 7.67-1.4%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
7.80
1xBet
7.60
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.2%
@ 2.21+2.2%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.60-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.3%
@ 7.26+0.6%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 19.75-3.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.24
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
82.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.21
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
80.5%
1.13
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
1.23
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
75.5%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-7.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.35
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.6%
1.20
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
1.46
Superbet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
+8.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Barnet
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Lakin50%
K. Tshimanga50%
J. Reeves33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
Brandon Comley0%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Comley33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
C. Lakin25%
M. Cox25%
Z. Williams25%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Tshimanga50%
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Cheltenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
C. McCann50%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
J. Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. McWilliams67%
F. Willcox33%
J. Tomlinson25%
J. Bickerstaff25%
J. Tomkinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
C. McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Sweeney33%
A. Weimann33%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
C. McCann0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. McCann50%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Barnet and Cheltenham have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Barnet and Cheltenham have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Barnet and Cheltenham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Barnet's defence is €2m more valuable than Cheltenham's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale