The contest between Barrow and Newport County is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 34 % and 36 %, while a draw is 30 %. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.3 % chance. Barrow, at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 0.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded, whereas Newport County on the road against similar opposition averages 0.92 scored and 2.08 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 78.4 %, Under 3.5 at 76.9 %, Under 5.5 cards at 76.0 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 74.8 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 72.4 % (miss), and Over 1.5 at 71.4 %. Both sides are coming off mixed recent form: Barrow’s last five are DLLLL, having drawn 2-2 with Harrogate, while Newport County’s last five are LWDWW, having lost 3-5 to Bristol Rovers. The match is poised to be a tight, evenly matched encounter.
Results analysis
Barrow finished 1-2 against Newport County (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 30% draw and 36% away win. Picks that landed: Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 3.5 (77%), Under 5.5 cards (76%), Over 19.5 fouls (75%), Over 1.5 (71%). Missed: Under 25.5 fouls (72%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barrow win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.91
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.29
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newport County win✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 40.0% · @ 2.32
Edge
-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barrow
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.97
0.64
1.50
1.31
2.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
1.04
2.08
0.69
1.54
1.38
2.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.70
1.13
1.33
0.87
2.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
1.70
1.07
1.36
0.92
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 2.00-2.2%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.73+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
1-2 ✓
8.0%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.3%
Barrow goals ↓
Newport County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
9.4%
6.6%
2.7%
0.8%
1
9.2%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.8%
4.8%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.1%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.8%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barrow goals (down), columns = Newport County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bromley
1.89
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Cambridge
1.78
Notts County
1.78
Salford
1.73
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Grimsby
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Crawley Town
0.87
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow
0.78
Barrow is 0.15 points worse than Newport County in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Grimsby
1.60
Notts County
1.59
Bromley
1.54
Swindon
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Cambridge
1.43
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.33
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Walsall
1.22
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Barrow
0.98
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow is 0.07 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals scored per game (0.98 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cambridge
0.72
Oldham
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Bromley
1.00
Notts County
1.06
Colchester
1.07
Grimsby
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Harrogate
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Barrow
1.70
Tranmere
1.72
Cheltenham
1.72
Barrow is 0.02 goals worse than Newport County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Notts County
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Cambridge
51%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Milton Keynes Dons
49%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
47%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Barrow
46%
Bromley
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Barrow is 0.6 percentage points worse than Newport County in terms of average possession (46% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Barrow
For 4.1 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
For 6.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barrow
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.1
10.2
3.2
3.5
3.0
20.3
20.9
19.7
vs Stronger (9)
9.1
9.8
8.3
2.6
3.0
2.2
22.7
21.8
24.0
vs Similar (41)
10.3
10.2
10.5
3.4
3.5
3.2
19.9
20.7
19.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
67%
54%
48%
58%
38%
38%
42%
33%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
52%
42%
62%
62%
58%
67%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.3
3.7
3.8
3.6
23.2
23.0
23.3
vs Stronger (7)
9.1
9.2
9.0
3.3
2.5
4.3
23.3
22.2
24.7
vs Similar (43)
9.4
9.5
9.4
3.8
4.1
3.5
23.2
23.2
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
51%
52%
50%
50%
58%
42%
65%
64%
67%
% under line
49%
48%
50%
50%
42%
58%
35%
36%
33%
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.7
Swindon
11.1
Harrogate
10.5
Grimsby
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Barrow
10.0
Salford
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Cheltenham
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Notts County
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Gillingham
9.5
Newport County
9.4
Colchester
9.2
Crewe
9.2
Cambridge
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Colchester
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Chesterfield
4.2
Grimsby
4.1
Accrington
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Cheltenham
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Swindon
3.4
Barrow
3.4
Cambridge
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Colchester
25.1
Oldham
25.1
Salford
24.4
Notts County
24.3
Bristol Rvs
24.1
Milton Keynes Dons
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.6
Grimsby
23.6
Cheltenham
23.2
Walsall
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Newport County
23.0
Tranmere
22.8
Cambridge
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Bromley
22.2
Accrington
22.2
Chesterfield
22.0
Harrogate
21.7
Swindon
20.9
Barrow
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.2%
Under 9.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.3%
Under 21.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barrow
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.07
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.81
0.08
0.54
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.70
0.40
0.53
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barrow over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barrow
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.57
1.00
0.56
1.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.58
1.27
0.62
1.00
0.54
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.73
0.80
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.67
1.04
0.64
0.79
0.69
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Barrow) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barrow over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barrow over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (29)
€10m
BR (25)
€5m
SAL (27)
€5m
NC (24)
€5m
GRI (26)
€5m
CRE (25)
€5m
CAM (22)
€5m
CHE (25)
€4m
GIL (27)
€4m
WAL (25)
€4m
FT (23)
€4m
CT (26)
€4m
SWI (25)
€4m
BAR (20)
€4m
COL (22)
€4m
TRA (27)
€3m
BRO (18)
€3m
BAR (24)
€3m
OLD (22)
€3m
CHE (21)
€3m
NC (24)
€3m
ACC (20)
€3m
SHR (19)
€2m
HAR (26)
€2m
Barrow and Newport County have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (10)
€3m
NC (8)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CHE (9)
€2m
SAL (9)
€2m
GRI (12)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
COL (8)
€2m
GIL (9)
€1m
SWI (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
TRA (10)
€1m
CAM (7)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
OLD (6)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
NC (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
BRO (4)
€0m
HAR (6)
€0m
SHR (4)
€0m
Barrow and Newport County have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€3m
SAL (8)
€2m
NC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (8)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
GIL (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BAR (6)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
CT (8)
€1m
HAR (9)
€1m
CAM (5)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
CHE (7)
€1m
GRI (4)
€1m
SWI (6)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
COL (4)
€1m
SHR (5)
€1m
NC (5)
€0m
BR (3)
€0m
Barrow and Newport County have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (13)
€3m
BR (12)
€3m
GRI (10)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
WAL (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€2m
FT (11)
€2m
CHE (11)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
GIL (10)
€2m
SAL (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
NC (9)
€2m
SWI (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€1m
NC (12)
€1m
COL (10)
€1m
TRA (9)
€1m
OLD (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
HAR (11)
€1m
Barrow and Newport County have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford
Cambridge
Chesterfield
Grimsby
Barnet
Swindon
Oldham
Crewe
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rvs
Fleetwood Town
Accrington
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate