Barry Town are poised to take the win in this Premier League clash against Cardiff MET. The hosts have been on a two-game winning run, with a notable 3-2 victory over Flint Town United in their last outing. This impressive form suggests they will be the favourites to secure the three points.
Barry Town will look to build on their home strengths, having scored an average of 1.18 goals per game at home, while conceding just 0.73. Meanwhile, Cardiff MET have struggled to replicate this form on the road, scoring 1.75 goals per game away from home but conceding 1.38.
The model predicts a 43% chance of a home win, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of an away win. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%. The expected total goals stand at 2.3.
The model's selection is the home win, and it also suggests the Under 3.5 goal model's selection with a probability of 79.2%. The Under 3.5 goal model's selection, the home win, the draw, and the away win are all predicted to occur 79.2%, 43%, 30%, and 27% of the time, respectively.
The win extends Barry Town's run of three consecutive victories, their latest triumph coming against Cardiff MET. The final score was 1-0, confirming the actual result of a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 44%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favourite landed. The model also correctly identified an Under 3.5 goals outcome, which hit, with a probability of 79.1%.
Barry Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 0.97 | 1.53 | 0.60 | 1.87 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.79 | 0.83 | 1.62 | 0.54 | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff MET| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.43 | 1.82 | 1.71 | 1.46 | 1.08 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.62 | 1.42 | 1.87 | 1.67 | 1.27 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Cardiff MET goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12% | 14% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Barry Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.69 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff MET| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.45 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Barry Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.96 | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Cardiff MET| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.88 | 0.85 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.04 | 0.77 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | +12.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/08/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/12/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/08/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 30/12/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 2-1 |
Barry Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 29/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
Cardiff MET| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Barry Town | 6 | 18 | 100% | 3.0 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 4.0 | 83% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 2 | The New Saints | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 3.2 | 67% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Cardiff MET | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 6 | Llandudno | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Penybont | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Colwyn Bay | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.7 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 6 | 3 | 17% | 0.5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 2.3 | 83% | 50% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2.8 | 67% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 15 | Trefelin | 6 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 17 | -15 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | - |
| 16 | Holywell | 6 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 5.8 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 4.3 | - |