Barry Town are tipped to win, with a 48% chance of lifting the trophy, while the draw sits at 26% and Colwyn Bay’s 26% win probability mirrors that. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 24% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% event. Barry’s home form shows 2.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded against teams of similar strength, whereas Colwyn Bay’s away record is 1.0 scored and 1.67 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s selection, Over 1.5, carries an 80.4% chance. The recent run of five victories for Barry, highlighted by a 4-1 win over Briton Ferry, contrasts with Colwyn Bay’s mixed five-game stretch, capped by a 2-0 triumph over Llandudno. The predicted outcome remains a Barry Town win.
Results analysis
Barry Town’s five-game winning streak ended in a 1-1 draw at home to Colwyn Bay, a result that surprised the Pythia model’s pre-match favourite. The model had selected a home win with a 48% probability, but the match finished as a draw, so that call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, given an 80.4% chance, and it hit as the match produced two goals. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 12.2% probability. The game’s 2-goal total was close to the expected 2.9, but the draw was the unexpected outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barry Town win✗ Miss
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay win✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.73
2.00
1.73
1.20
1.73
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
4.00
2.00
6.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.60
2.15
1.46
0.92
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.97
1.38
1.94
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
6.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.74
1.30
1.80
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
2.11
1.80
2.40
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.2%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.4%
Barry Town goals ↓
Colwyn Bay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
5.4%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
1
7.9%
12%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
3
4.4%
5.4%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.9%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barry Town goals (down), columns = Colwyn Bay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.88
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.84
Bala Town
1.59
Penybont
1.53
Caernarfon Town
1.38
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.18
Barry Town
1.00
Pontypridd Town
0.97
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Colwyn Bay
0.78
Barry Town is 0.22 points better than Colwyn Bay in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.66
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.19
Caernarfon Town
1.68
Penybont
1.53
Newtown AFC
1.48
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.22
Bala Town
1.19
Barry Town
1.12
Colwyn Bay
1.06
Cardiff MET
1.06
Aberystwyth Town
0.84
Pontypridd Town
0.72
Barry Town is 0.06 goals better than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.56
Bala Town
0.97
Penybont
1.18
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.25
Pontypridd Town
1.28
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.34
Newtown AFC
1.55
Barry Town
1.69
Aberystwyth Town
1.78
Cardiff MET
1.97
Colwyn Bay
2.06
Caernarfon Town
2.09
Barry Town is 0.38 goals better than Colwyn Bay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 2.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.20
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.60
1.38
0.54
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.56
0.88
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.68
0.40
0.60
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
1.11
1.00
1.60
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.13
0.80
1.20
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.50
2.00
5.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
1.00
0.77
0.92
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Colwyn Bay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colwyn Bay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.81
1.06
0.57
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.05
0.90
1.20
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colwyn Bay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Barry Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Barry Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Barry Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Barry Town and Colwyn Bay have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Penybont
Bala Town
Caernarfon Town
Newtown AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET
Pontypridd Town
Aberystwyth Town