The contest between Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 31% for a draw, and 36% for the visitors. The expected goal tally sits at 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals, a 28% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% probability.
Barry Town, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.69 goals scored and 0.54 conceded. GAP Connah S Quay, on the road and facing a comparable side, averages 2.08 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Their recent form shows a 4-game winning streak for Barry and a 3-game winning streak for the visitors.
The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 4.5 (91.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.2%), and Away under 2.5 goals (88.0%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barry Town win
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.87
1.86
0.57
2.19
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
2.04
0.79
1.82
0.36
2.23
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.03
2.50
1.14
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
2.22
1.04
2.20
1.30
2.23
0.85
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.50
4.50
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.2%
Under 1.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.2%
Barry Town goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
8.7%
6.2%
2.6%
0.8%
1
8.9%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.5%
8.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.8%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barry Town goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Barry Town is 0.50 points better than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC are level in goals scored per game (both 2.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Barry Town is 0.50 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barry Town or Draw
65.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers Barry Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town or GAP Connah S Quay FC
70.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers Barry Town + GAP Connah S Quay FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC
63.9%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers Draw + GAP Connah S Quay FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barry Town over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barry Town, so a minus line means Barry Town give that many goals of a start and GAP Connah S Quay FC receive them. At -1, Barry Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barry Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barry Town)
Barry Town -2
5.7%
Draw -2
10.8%
GAP Connah S Quay FC +2
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Barry Town)
Barry Town -1
16.5%
Draw -1
19.6%
GAP Connah S Quay FC +1
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Barry Town)
Barry Town +1
65.5%
Draw +1
19.0%
GAP Connah S Quay FC -1
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Barry Town)
Barry Town +2
84.5%
Draw +2
10.3%
GAP Connah S Quay FC -2
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.64
0.14
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.29
0.73
0.09
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.37
1.14
0.29
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.39
1.00
0.40
1.23
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.21
0.43
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.50
1.09
0.27
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.36
0.86
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.65
1.20
0.90
1.00
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Barry Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell