Barry Town’s current form is a bright beacon for the model, with five straight victories and a 4-1 triumph over Briton Ferry. The Pythia model therefore rates a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 65% probability to that outcome. Llandudno, playing away against a stronger side, has a 14% chance of triumph and a 21% chance of a draw, while the home side enjoys a 65% chance of victory. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Barry Town, with a 10.7% chance. Barry Town’s home form shows an average of three goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opponents, whereas Llandudno’s away form averages 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded against stronger opposition. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 7.5 at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.0%, Home +2 handicap at 95.3%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barry Town win
65.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llandudno win
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Barry Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.87
1.86
0.57
2.19
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
2.04
0.79
1.82
0.36
2.23
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
1.25
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.03
3.50
0.71
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
2.56
0.89
3.78
0.67
1.33
1.11
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
4.5%
Barry Town goals ↓
Llandudno goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.2%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
8.9%
9.9%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.8%
7.2%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
4
4.3%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Barry Town goals (down), columns = Llandudno goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Barry Town is 1.00 points better than Llandudno in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Barry Town is 0.67 goals better than Llandudno in terms of goals scored per game (2.83 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Barry Town and Llandudno are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Barry Town or Draw
86.4%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Barry Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Barry Town or Llandudno
79.1%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Barry Town + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Llandudno
34.5%
Avg Implied -
65%
21%
14%
covers Draw + Llandudno
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Barry Town over/under 0.5
Over
88.9%
Under
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 3.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Barry Town, so a minus line means Barry Town give that many goals of a start and Llandudno receive them. At -1, Barry Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Barry Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Barry Town)
Barry Town -2
22.9%
Draw -2
20.0%
Llandudno +2
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Barry Town)
Barry Town -1
42.9%
Draw -1
22.6%
Llandudno +1
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Barry Town)
Barry Town +1
86.4%
Draw +1
9.0%
Llandudno -1
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Barry Town)
Barry Town +2
95.3%
Draw +2
3.5%
Llandudno -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Barry Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.64
0.14
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.29
0.73
0.09
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.21
0.50
0.94
0.19
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.44
0.33
0.22
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.33
0.75
0.75
2.20
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.1%
Under 0.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.4%
Under 1.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Barry Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.53
1.21
0.43
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.50
1.09
0.27
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Llandudno
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.70
2.29
0.21
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
0.56
2.44
0.22
1.00
0.89
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.75
0.25
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Barry Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.7%
Under 1.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Barry Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barry Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Barry Town and Llandudno have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Barry Town and Llandudno have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Barry Town and Llandudno have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Barry Town and Llandudno have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell