The model favours an away win, with the odds at 48% versus 27% for a draw and 25% for a home victory. The expected goal tally is 2.7, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance, reflecting the balanced scoring and conceding figures for both sides. Be1 NFA, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 5.0 conceded, while Babrungas on the road averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested picks span a range of low-goal outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.3%), Away +2 handicap (90.1%) and Under 4.5 (86.7%). The home side’s recent three-game winning streak and the away side’s fresh win set the narrative, but the statistical profile points to a modest, evenly-matched contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas win
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.14
1.71
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
1.35
1.15
1.46
2.08
1.23
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.03
2.31
1.38
2.18
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.26
1.07
2.17
1.50
2.33
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.1%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
9.8%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.3%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.1%
6.5%
5.1%
2.7%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Be1 NFA is 0.79 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Be1 NFA is 0.05 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Be1 NFA is 1.07 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Be1 NFA or Draw
52.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Be1 NFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA or Babrungas
72.6%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Be1 NFA + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Babrungas
75.1%
Avg Implied -
25%
27%
48%
covers Draw + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Be1 NFA, so a minus line means Be1 NFA give that many goals of a start and Babrungas receive them. At -1, Be1 NFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Be1 NFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -2
2.9%
Draw -2
7.0%
Babrungas +2
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -1
9.9%
Draw -1
14.9%
Babrungas +1
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +1
52.3%
Draw +1
22.3%
Babrungas -1
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +2
74.7%
Draw +2
14.9%
Babrungas -2
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.23
0.69
0.94
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.56
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.43
1.07
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.85
0.38
0.92
1.38
0.77
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.08
0.69
1.24
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.52
1.00
0.75
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →