This Lithuania: 1 Lyga match between Be1 NFA and Hegelmann II is finely balanced, with Be1 NFA's recent form raising concerns after three consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Minija. However, Hegelmann II's recent win over Garliava, coming from behind to win 3-1, suggests they can cause an upset. The model's selection is the home win, with a 37% probability, closely followed by a draw at 26% and an away win at 36%.
Expected goals are high at 3.0, indicating a potentially open game. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. Be1 NFA has struggled to score at home, averaging 1 goal per game, while conceding 1.64. Hegelmann II has averaged 1.17 goals away from home, but has conceded 1.67.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals at 81.6%, with no other selections provided. Be1 NFA has a 37% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 36% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Be1 NFA's recent form, coming off a victory over Hegelmann II. The final score was 2-1, which ultimately led to a home win. The model correctly picked Be1 NFA as its selection, citing a 37% probability of a home win before the match. In addition to the home win, the model's selection of over 1.5 goals also came in, with an 81.6% probability of occurrence. The model's call on the home win was correct. The other selections, including over 2.5 goals, did not come to fruition, with the most likely total goals being 2.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied 64.8% · @ 1.38
Edge
-27.3%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 18.6% · @ 4.80
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
5.50
Dafabet
5.20
Betano
4.90
Pinnacle
4.80
Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 16.6% · @ 5.39
Edge
+19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.40
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.64
Pinnacle
5.63
Marathonbet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.53
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.33
1.00
4.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.54
1.50
1.00
1.64
2.00
1.38
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.90
1.19
1.88
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (13)
1.38
1.62
1.43
1.71
1.33
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.91
0.17
1.83
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
2.50
2.67
2.33
1.00
2.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.11-2.5%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 5.83+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.48
Unibet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.35-9.3%
Under 2.5
41.8%
@ 2.81+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.8%
@ 1.76-15.7%
Under 3.5
64.2%
@ 1.87+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.82
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.9%
@ 1.42-1.9%
No
38.1%
@ 2.50+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
1xBet
1.40
No
1xBet
2.66
William Hil
2.62
Marathonbet
2.56
Unibet
2.48
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 10.25+7.9%
2-1 ✓
8.5%@ 8.58+3.4%
1-2
8.3%@ 15.83+5.5%
2-2
6.4%@ 14.00+3.2%
1-0
6.3%@ 11.30+2.4%
0-1
6.2%@ 21.00+4.1%
0-0
6.0%@ 21.00+3.9%
2-0
5.7%@ 9.33+0.9%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Hegelmann II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.2%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.3%
12%
8.3%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.7%
8.5%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.9%
4.3%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Hegelmann II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Be1 NFA is 0.64 points better than Hegelmann II in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Be1 NFA is 0.52 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Be1 NFA is 1.07 goals better than Hegelmann II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.54
0.77
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.58
0.64
0.55
0.77
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.56
0.94
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (11)
0.18
1.18
0.00
1.00
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.46
1.23
0.94
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.17
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.83
0.92
0.36
1.09
1.23
0.77
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hegelmann II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.62
0.94
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.57
1.14
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.83
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.00
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.11
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava