Be1 NFA's recent form has been concerning, with three straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Minija. However, Jonava's away form, particularly against stronger opponents, has been equally underwhelming, scoring just 0.93 goals per game and conceding 0.43. The model predicts an away win, with a 39% chance of Jonava emerging victorious. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability.
Be1 NFA's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.38 and 1.25 goals per game, respectively, against weaker opponents. Jonava's away scoring and conceding averages against stronger opponents are 0.93 and 0.43 goals per game. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 77.3% probability and an 8% edge. Another selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 71.1% probability. The home win percentage is 31%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 39%.
Results analysis
The win extends Be1 NFA's recent run of mixed results, having previously suffered 3 consecutive defeats. However, the away team Jonava's recent form was marked by inconsistency, having lost their previous encounter. The game ended 0-2 in favour of Jonava, resulting in an away win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Jonava, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, an away win, was correct. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.3%, while Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 71.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 52.3% · @ 1.71
Edge
-21.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.72
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.45
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Jonava win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.09
Edge
+17.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.49
Marathonbet
4.40
Dafabet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.63
1.08
2.00
1.44
1.39
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
2.33
1.00
4.00
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.54
1.46
1.10
1.60
1.86
1.36
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
0.87
1.47
2.40
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
2.00
1.00
2.60
2.25
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.50
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
0.64
1.00
1.20
3.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.22-3.2%
Under 1.5
28.9%
@ 3.53+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
@ 1.79-7.1%
Under 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.86+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.98
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
@ 2.92-8.3%
Under 3.5
77.3%
@ 1.32+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Unibet
2.63
Under
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.33
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.5%
@ 1.72-2.2%
No
49.5%
@ 1.92+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
No
Unibet
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 6.48+7.8%
0-1
10.1%@ 10.79+6.2%
0-0
10.1%@ 9.54+5.7%
1-0
8.7%@ 6.63+2.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 12.29+5.0%
0-2 ✓
7.4%@ 19.14+5.2%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.57+1.8%
2-0
5.7%@ 7.59+0.1%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Jonava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.4%
3.2%
1.0%
1
8.7%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.7%
7.3%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
3
2.1%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Jonava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Be1 NFA and Jonava are level in average points per game (both 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Be1 NFA and Jonava are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Be1 NFA is 0.80 goals worse than Jonava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.58
0.83
0.56
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.71
0.62
0.70
0.60
0.71
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
0.60
1.60
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.10
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
0.20
0.20
1.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.50
1.17
0.89
0.72
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
1.17
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
0.83
0.83
0.40
1.00
1.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jonava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.87
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.78
0.40
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.40
0.20
0.60
0.60
0.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.45
0.80
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.3%
1.32
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.33
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.1%
1.22
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-3.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BFA
Babrungas
Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Tauras
FA Šiauliai II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava