Be1 NFA, riding a three-game winning streak after a 5-0 rout of Ekranas, faces Kauno Žalgiris II, who are on a two-game winning run following a 3-0 win over Hegelmann II. The model favours a home win, with a 55% probability, a 23% chance of a draw and 22% for an away victory. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10.5% probability. Be1 NFA, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded, while Kauno Žalgiris II, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 92.4% and Home +2 handicap at 90.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win
54.6%
Avg Implied 66.9% · @ 1.34
Edge
-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied 19.6% · @ 4.56
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Dafabet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
Kauno Žalgiris II win
22.2%
Avg Implied 13.5% · @ 6.65
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.47
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
7.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.14
1.71
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
1.35
1.15
1.46
2.08
1.23
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 5.50-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.45+1.4%
Under 2.5
36.3%
@ 2.40-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.42
Pinnacle
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.6%
@ 2.14-0.8%
Under 3.5
58.4%
@ 1.57+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
Betfair
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Both teams to score
Yes
62.9%
@ 1.67+8.5%
No
37.1%
@ 2.00-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
No
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%@ 8.54+5.5%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.37+4.0%
2-0
7.8%@ 7.09+1.8%
1-0
6.7%@ 8.07+1.4%
3-1
6.6%@ 9.61+2.2%
2-2
6.1%@ 14.14+3.1%
1-2
6.0%@ 18.00+3.6%
3-0
5.3%@ 8.76+0.4%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.7%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.7%
10%
6.0%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.3%
6.6%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.7%
3.3%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Be1 NFA and Kauno Žalgiris II are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Be1 NFA is 0.17 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Be1 NFA is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Be1 NFA or Draw
77.8%
Avg Implied 86.0% · @ 1.06
Edge
-8.2%
55%
23%
22%
covers Be1 NFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Be1 NFA or Kauno Žalgiris II
76.7%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.12
Edge
-4.8%
55%
23%
22%
covers Be1 NFA + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
45.4%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.82
Edge
+13.0%
55%
23%
22%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
William Hil
2.90
Bet365
2.88
10Bet
2.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5
Over
86.9%
@ 1.07+0.5%
Under
13.1%
@ 6.80-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.07
Under
1xBet
6.80
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5
Over
60.3%
@ 1.36-6.5%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.75+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.70
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5
Over
33.2%
@ 2.15-9.5%
Under
66.8%
@ 1.60+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Be1 NFA over/under 3.5
Over
14.9%
@ 3.80-9.3%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.21+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
71.3%
@ 1.58+13.2%
Under
28.7%
@ 2.19-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.57
Under
1xBet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
35.5%
@ 3.74+11.0%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.22-11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
13.1%
@ 8.45+2.2%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.04-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.45
Under
1xBet
1.04
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Be1 NFA, so a minus line means Be1 NFA give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Be1 NFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Be1 NFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -2
16.3%
@ 3.14-11.9%
Draw -2
16.8%
@ 4.25-4.0%
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
66.9%
@ 1.74+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.14
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.74
Handicap -1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -1
33.1%
@ 1.95-12.5%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 3.70-2.6%
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
45.4%
@ 2.93+15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
Away
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.83
Handicap +1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +1
77.8%
Draw +1
12.8%
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.3%
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.22-2.8%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.65+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
3.75
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.8%
@ 2.11-7.0%
Under 1.5
64.2%
@ 1.57+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.15
Betano
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Under
Betfair
1.62
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.5%
@ 4.57-5.7%
Under 2.5
85.5%
@ 1.16+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.60
William Hil
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Under
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.1%
@ 1.41-9.7%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.59+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.63
1xBet
2.55
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.6%
@ 2.87-13.1%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.33+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.87
Under
1xBet
1.33
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
@ 6.85-9.0%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.07+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Under
1xBet
1.07
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.6%
@ 2.62+3.9%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.39-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.39
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
@ 9.10-0.4%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.43
1.07
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.85
0.38
0.92
1.38
0.77
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.8%
@ 1.12-0.8%
Under 0.5
18.2%
@ 5.30+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.12
Under
1xBet
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.68-1.4%
Under 1.5
46.3%
@ 2.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.1%
@ 3.00-6.5%
Under 2.5
75.9%
@ 1.32+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.0%
@ 1.31-10.4%
Under
41.0%
@ 2.97+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.31
Under
1xBet
2.97
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.6%
@ 2.38-11.5%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.47+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.47
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
@ 5.25-10.4%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.11+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.25
Under
1xBet
1.11
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.6%
@ 2.29+9.5%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.53-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.29
Under
1xBet
1.53
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
@ 7.30+3.2%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.06-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
@ 11.00-3.2%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+9.0%
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.4%
Under 5.5
88.5%
1.09
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
+2.9%
Home over 0.5 goals
86.9%
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.16
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
85.1%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+9.3%
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+1.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
-3.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+13.1%
Home or Draw
77.8%
1.06
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.06
-8.2%
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
1.12
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
-4.8%
Under 4.5
76.6%
1.23
Unibet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.9%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.22
Betfair
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-2.8%
Away over 0.5 goals
71.3%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.59
1xBet
1.57
-
-
-
+13.2%
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →