The match between Be1 NFA and Neptūnų Klaipėda is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win at 41%. Home and away win probabilities sit at 32% and 27% respectively, leaving the draw at 27%. The average goal expectation is three, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Be1 NFA, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded, while Neptūnų Klaipėda, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 2.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Under 5.5 (92.0%), Away +2 handicap (85.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.0%) and Under 4.5 (82.2%). All selections carry their own probabilities, with no overlap between match-result odds and other picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win
43.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.50
1.14
1.71
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
2.50
1.00
5.00
0.00
1.67
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
1.35
1.15
1.46
2.08
1.23
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.07
1.29
0.86
3.12
1.25
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.20
1.00
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
2.88
0.94
1.50
0.67
3.70
1.10
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.43
2.67
1.00
2.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
Under 2.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
No
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.9%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
7.4%
6.9%
3.8%
1.5%
1
5.8%
12%
9.2%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.6%
7.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.0%
3.3%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Be1 NFA is 0.36 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Be1 NFA is 0.24 goals better than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Be1 NFA is 0.07 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Be1 NFA or Draw
56.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
43%
covers Be1 NFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA or Neptūną Klaipėda
73.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
43%
covers Be1 NFA + Neptūną Klaipėda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Neptūną Klaipėda
69.9%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Neptūną Klaipėda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5
Over
73.3%
Under
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Be1 NFA, so a minus line means Be1 NFA give that many goals of a start and Neptūną Klaipėda receive them. At -1, Be1 NFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Be1 NFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -2
4.7%
Draw -2
8.9%
Neptūną Klaipėda +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA -1
13.6%
Draw -1
16.5%
Neptūną Klaipėda +1
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +1
56.5%
Draw +1
20.5%
Neptūną Klaipėda -1
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Be1 NFA)
Be1 NFA +2
77.0%
Draw +2
13.4%
Neptūną Klaipėda -2
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.73
0.50
0.77
0.54
0.69
0.46
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.43
0.64
0.50
1.69
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.31
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.43
1.07
1.12
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
0.88
0.85
0.38
0.92
1.38
0.77
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Neptūną Klaipėda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
0.64
0.36
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.20
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.33
1.70
0.80
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.86
1.67
0.33
1.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →