Be1 NFA are the clear favourites to win at home, with a 52% chance of triumph, 29% for a draw and 19% that Tauras will come away with the victory. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, most likely a 1-0 scoreline for the hosts, which carries a 14% probability. Be1 NFA have been prolific at home against weaker opposition, averaging 1.67 goals scored and only 0.78 conceded, while Tauras, playing away against stronger teams, manage just 0.67 goals and concede 1.67. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with an 80.3% probability of success. The home win probability is 52%, the draw 29% and the away win 19%. The single most likely score is 1-0. The model’s pick is the home win.
Results analysis
The win extends Be1 NFA’s three-game winning run, while Tauras returns from a draw. The final score was 2-1, a home win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had chosen a Home win with a 52% probability, and this call proved correct. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals came with an 80.3% probability and it hit, as the match produced only two goals. All other suggested picks were settled, with each result recorded. The outcome confirms the model’s accuracy in both the final result and the total-goals market.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tauras win✗ Miss
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Be1 NFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.70
1.77
0.69
1.47
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.62
0.75
1.67
0.78
1.60
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.20
2.43
1.29
1.62
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
0.00
4.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
2.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
3.29
0.57
3.25
0.50
3.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
11.3%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.8%
Be1 NFA goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.9%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.8%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.0%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.5%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Be1 NFA goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
Be1 NFA is 0.53 points better than Tauras in terms of average points per game (2.10 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
Be1 NFA is 0.07 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals scored per game (1.90 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
Be1 NFA is 0.17 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.43
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.65
0.39
0.89
0.44
0.50
0.36
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.29
1.14
0.29
0.57
0.29
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Be1 NFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.86
0.50
0.94
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.80
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.39
0.78
0.33
1.07
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
1.00
1.29
1.00
0.14
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
36% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FK Trakai
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Atmosfera
Ekranas
BFA
Kauno Žalgiris II
Panevėžys II
Hegelmann II
FA Šiauliai II
Minija
Garliava
Banga II