Beltinci vs Krka Result & Analysis

The contest between Beltinci and Krka is a tight one, with the model pointing to a home win as the most likely outcome. Home victory sits at 37%, a draw at 27%, and an away win at 36%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, but the most probable total is two, with a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability. Beltinci, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.5 goals scored and concedes none, while Krka, on the road, averages 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s only suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.6% probability. Recent form offers no clear advantage: Beltinci’s last five include a loss, a win, a win, a win, and a loss, and they just came off a 1-3 defeat to Jesenice, whereas Krka’s last five are three losses, one draw, and one loss, following a 2-3 loss to Primorje. The match remains finely balanced.

The upset was immediate: Beltinci fell short, losing 0-1 to Krka in a match that saw the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win pick at 37%, miss the mark. The model’s selection was wrong, and the only other suggested pick, Over 1.5 at 78.6%, also missed. Beltinci’s recent run of LWLWW, coming off a defeat, was not enough to secure a win, while Krka’s form of LLLDL after three straight defeats still produced the victory. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win, leaving the model’s predictions off target.