The match between Benevento and Sudtirol is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total is 2.5 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14 % chance. Benevento, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Sudtirol, on the road, averages 0.93 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opposition. The probabilities for the match result are 33 % home win, 29 % draw, and 37 % away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.5 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9 % with a 3 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), Over 19.5 fouls (97.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 % with a 3 % edge), Under 5.5 (95.7 % with a 1 % edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (95.7 %). Both sides have shown recent form that keeps the contest finely balanced.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Sudtirol, was expected to win with a 38% probability, yet the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick incorrect. Benevento, coming off a draw, and Sudtirol, unbeaten in five, both found the net once. The model’s selection of an away win proved wrong, while its eight suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Over 19.5 fouls (97.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (95.7%) and Away under 3.5 goals (95.6%). The final score matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, confirming the low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Benevento win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 2.00
Edge
-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.10
SBO
2.09
Unibet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Dafabet
2.01
Draw✓ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.18
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Sudtirol win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 23.8% · @ 3.94
Edge
+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.36
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.04
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Benevento
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.37
0.80
1.27
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.20
0.80
1.20
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (20)
1.00
1.45
0.80
1.30
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.07
0.81
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.11
0.86
0.93
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Benevento) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.40+6.2%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 2.80-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
3.04
Betano
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.28+4.6%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.61-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.45
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
Betano
2.30
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 4.17+2.1%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.21-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.39
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
@ 1.97+5.3%
No
47.5%
@ 1.76-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
No
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%@ 5.88+6.5%
0-0
9.3%@ 7.32+3.3%
0-1
9.3%@ 8.73+4.2%
1-0
8.4%@ 5.66+0.6%
1-2
8.4%@ 12.65+4.9%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.30+2.3%
0-2
7.0%@ 18.43+4.5%
2-0
5.9%@ 8.39+0.5%
Benevento goals ↓
Sudtirol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.3%
7.0%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.7%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.3%
3.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benevento goals (down), columns = Sudtirol goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Benevento is 0.09 points better than Sudtirol in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Benevento is 0.16 goals better than Sudtirol in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Benevento is 0.26 goals worse than Sudtirol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benevento
For 8.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sudtirol
For 3.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.9 · Against 15.2 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benevento
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
13.2
9.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
27.5
25.0
30.0
vs Stronger (17)
12.7
16.0
11.0
0.8
0.4
1.2
28.3
22.0
31.5
vs Similar (33)
10.9
12.6
8.8
1.2
1.4
0.9
27.2
25.6
29.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
83%
67%
16%
12%
20%
83%
67%
100%
% under line
25%
17%
33%
84%
88%
80%
17%
33%
0%
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.4
7.6
4.3
4.5
4.0
30.8
30.0
31.8
vs Stronger (5)
7.2
9.5
5.7
3.4
3.0
3.7
28.8
31.0
27.3
vs Similar (44)
8.6
9.2
7.9
4.2
4.4
4.0
30.9
29.6
32.4
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
11.0
11.0
-
37.0
37.0
-
% over line
34%
50%
17%
58%
58%
58%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
66%
50%
83%
42%
42%
42%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Benevento) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Carrarese
10.6
Vicenza Virtus
10.4
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
9.9
Ascoli
9.6
Palermo
9.5
Cesena
9.4
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Sampdoria
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.7
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.6
Ascoli
32.6
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Avellino
30.8
Vicenza Virtus
30.0
Virtus Entella
29.9
Juve Stabia
29.7
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.7
Modena
28.6
Benevento
28.4
Carrarese
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.1
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.6%
@ 2.41+3.3%
Under 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.49-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.32
Under
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.0%
@ 1.46-1.0%
Under 3.5
38.0%
@ 2.48+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.40
Under
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.45
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.0%
Under 21.5
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Benevento or Draw✓ Hit
62.1%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-13.9%
33%
29%
38%
covers Benevento + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
SBO
1.22
Benevento or Sudtirol✗ Miss
70.6%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.32
Edge
-0.4%
33%
29%
38%
covers Benevento + Sudtirol
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Draw or Sudtirol✓ Hit
67.3%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
+14.3%
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Sudtirol
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Benevento over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.24-4.5%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.64+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.04
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
Benevento over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 2.23-7.9%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.60+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.33
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Benevento over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 4.94-6.7%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.15+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Benevento over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.69-5.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Sudtirol over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.1%
@ 1.56+13.5%
Under
26.9%
@ 2.30-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Sudtirol over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.8%
@ 3.78+13.1%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.24-13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.13
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Sudtirol over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 10.14+5.3%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.03-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Sudtirol over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 26.17+0.7%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
32.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Benevento, so a minus line means Benevento give that many goals of a start and Sudtirol receive them. At -1, Benevento must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Benevento win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Benevento)Actual: Sudtirol
Benevento -2
4.7%
@ 8.75-5.6%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 5.70-6.1%
Sudtirol +2
85.7%
@ 1.21+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Away
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Benevento)Actual: Sudtirol
Benevento -1
14.3%
@ 3.79-9.2%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 3.46-7.4%
Sudtirol +1
67.3%
@ 1.76+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Draw
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.35
Away
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Handicap +1 (Benevento)Actual: Benevento
Benevento +1
62.1%
@ 1.24-10.8%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 5.18+2.8%
Sudtirol -1
17.7%
@ 9.40+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
4.80
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Handicap +2 (Benevento)Actual: Benevento
Benevento +2
82.3%
@ 1.04-8.0%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 13.50+4.5%
Sudtirol -2
6.2%
@ 35.00+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benevento
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.63
0.31
0.50
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.67
0.36
0.57
0.31
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Benevento) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.3%
@ 1.48+6.5%
Under 0.5
30.7%
@ 2.50-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
William Hil
2.62
Superbet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.7%
@ 3.24+6.9%
Under 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.31-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Under
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 8.71+3.1%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.04-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
William Hil
9.00
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benevento over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.9%
@ 1.99+7.3%
Under
46.1%
@ 1.74-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Benevento over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 5.92+0.2%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.09-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
5.85
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Benevento over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.25-3.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 2.72+5.0%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.41-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.72
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Under
10Bet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 9.70+1.5%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.03-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 45.00-96.2%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benevento
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sudtirol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sudtirol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.44
0.50
0.36
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Benevento) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.8%
@ 1.31+4.4%
Under 0.5
24.2%
@ 3.25-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betano
3.35
Marathonbet
3.28
1xBet
3.28
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.44+2.6%
Under 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.52-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Betano
2.37
Under
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.52
William Hil
1.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 5.57+1.2%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.12-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
5.90
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benevento over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 1.69-2.6%
Under
48.0%
@ 2.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Benevento over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.9%
@ 4.26-3.9%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.18+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Benevento over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 12.17-1.6%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Sudtirol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 2.20+6.7%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.59-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Superbet
1.56
Sudtirol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.4%
@ 7.26+5.6%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.06-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.60
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Sudtirol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 22.17+1.2%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.01-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.7%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+11.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-5.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.12
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
1.31
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.27
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.9%
1.39
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
-
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
+13.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.9%
1.40
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.6%
1.32
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
70.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-4.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benevento
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Francesco Salvemini67%
Davide Lamesta33%
Stefano Scognamillo0%
Gianmarco Vannucchi0%
Pietro Beruatto0%
Mattia Maita0%
Edoardo Pierozzi0%
Antonio Prisco0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pietro Beruatto33%
Stefano Scognamillo0%
Gianmarco Vannucchi0%
Francesco Salvemini0%
Mattia Maita0%
Davide Lamesta0%
Edoardo Pierozzi0%
Antonio Prisco0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pietro Beruatto33%
Stefano Scognamillo0%
Gianmarco Vannucchi0%
Francesco Salvemini0%
Mattia Maita0%
Davide Lamesta0%
Edoardo Pierozzi0%
Antonio Prisco0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Davide Lamesta33%
Stefano Scognamillo0%
Gianmarco Vannucchi0%
Francesco Salvemini0%
Pietro Beruatto0%
Mattia Maita0%
Edoardo Pierozzi0%
Antonio Prisco0%
Sudtirol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simone Davì33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Davì33%
Vasco Lopes33%
Aljoša Vasić33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aljoša Vasić33%
Simone Tronchin33%
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Davì0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alessandro Plizzari0%
Bjarki Bjarkason0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Simone Davì0%
Vasco Lopes0%
Aljoša Vasić0%
Simone Tronchin0%
Rareș Burnete0%
Davide Veroli0%
Riccardo Stivanello0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Benevento's squad is €10m less valuable than Sudtirol's (€12m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Benevento's attack is €1m more valuable than Sudtirol's (€4m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Benevento's midfield is €8m less valuable than Sudtirol's (€3m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Benevento's defence is €3m less valuable than Sudtirol's (€5m vs €8m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
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