Benfica’s dominance at home is unmistakable, with an 85% chance of victory and an 85.1% probability that the model will pick a home win. Their recent 4-game winning streak, highlighted by a 2-1 triumph over Estoril, fuels that confidence. Moreirense, playing away against a stronger opponent, has only a 4% chance of triumph and an average of zero goals scored versus Benfica’s 3.08 at home, while conceding 0.5. The model therefore predicts a 3-goal match, most likely ending 2-0 for the hosts, with a 12.9% chance for that exact scoreline. The expected total of 3.5 goals aligns with the 22% probability that the final tally will be 3. Benfica’s home form and Moreirense’s away form reinforce the 85%home win, 11% draw, and 4% away win percentages. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls (97%), Over 21.5 fouls (92.9%), Over 23.5 fouls (85.7%), Over 25.5 fouls (75%), Over 8.5 corners (73.2%), Over 2.5 cards (85.2%), and the Home win (85.1%). The model also lists Over 1.5 goals (87.4%) as a selection, though it predicts a 2-0 scoreline.
Results analysis
Benfica’s 1-0 victory over Moreirense kept the model’s prediction on target, extending the home side’s four-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was a home win, assigned an 85.1% probability, and the outcome matched that call. The model’s selections performed strongly: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.0%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 92.9%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 85.7%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 75.0%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 73.2%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 85.2%. Only Over 1.5 missed, with an 87.4% probability. The expected total of 3.5 goals and the most likely score of 3-0 were not reached, but the overall model delivered a correct outcome and most of its picks.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Benfica win✓ Hit
85.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
11.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moreirense win✗ Miss
3.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Benfica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
0.70
2.71
0.57
2.00
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
2.65
0.73
3.08
0.50
2.29
0.93
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.50
0.94
1.25
0.93
1.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.25
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.50
1.17
1.50
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
1.58
1.17
1.17
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.7%
Under 2.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.3%
Under 3.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.0%
No
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
3-0
12.9%
4-0
9.6%
1-0 ✓
8.2%
2-1
7.2%
3-1
7.2%
5-0
5.8%
4-1
5.4%
Benfica goals ↓
Moreirense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.2%
5.3%
1.3%
0.2%
0.0%
2
13%
7.2%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
3
13%
7.2%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
9.6%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica goals (down), columns = Moreirense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Benfica is 1.44 points better than Moreirense in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Benfica is 1.50 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals scored per game (2.35 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Benfica is 0.82 goals better than Moreirense in terms of goals conceded per game (0.65 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica
For 7.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.7 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Moreirense
For 6.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 14.6 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.7
11.1
2.8
2.6
3.0
28.9
28.5
29.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
12.0
12.5
11.5
3.3
3.7
3.0
29.2
32.0
26.5
vs Weaker (44)
11.3
11.6
11.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
28.8
28.0
29.6
% over line
64%
69%
59%
48%
44%
52%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
36%
31%
41%
52%
56%
48%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.2
9.4
3.4
3.6
3.2
31.5
34.2
28.7
vs Stronger (11)
12.0
10.0
14.7
3.2
2.4
5.3
30.6
34.5
25.3
vs Similar (19)
9.2
11.0
7.5
3.0
3.8
2.5
26.5
30.2
22.8
vs Weaker (20)
10.5
12.1
8.9
3.9
4.4
3.4
36.3
37.4
35.1
% over line
55%
71%
38%
48%
50%
46%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
45%
29%
62%
52%
50%
54%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benfica
11.4
Feirense
11.3
Pacos Ferreira
11.2
Sporting CP
11.2
Chaves
11.2
Estoril
10.7
Tondela
10.5
Moreirense
10.4
SC Braga
10.4
FC Porto
10.4
Boavista
10.2
Guimaraes
10.1
Aves
9.8
Rio Ave
9.5
Maritimo
9.5
Portimonense
9.5
Belenenses
9.4
Setubal
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Feirense
5.8
Rio Ave
5.7
Pacos Ferreira
5.4
Boavista
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Estoril
5.1
Setubal
4.9
FC Porto
4.8
Belenenses
4.8
Maritimo
4.8
Sporting CP
4.8
Tondela
4.7
SC Braga
4.7
Chaves
4.5
Portimonense
4.5
Aves
4.4
Guimaraes
4.4
Benfica
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.5
Setubal
35.5
Rio Ave
34.3
Estoril
32.5
Guimaraes
32.1
Maritimo
32.1
Boavista
31.9
Aves
31.9
SC Braga
31.8
Belenenses
31.8
Sporting CP
31.6
Moreirense
31.5
FC Porto
31.4
Tondela
31.2
Portimonense
31.1
Pacos Ferreira
30.8
Chaves
30.7
Benfica
28.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
61.6%
Under 9.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.7%
Under 3.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.9%
Under 21.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.23
1.14
0.36
0.75
0.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.08
0.23
1.33
0.33
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.42
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.17
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.47
1.57
0.21
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
1.58
0.50
1.75
0.17
1.43
0.79
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Moreirense) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moreirense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.31
0.75
0.43
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.08
0.17
0.83
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (12)
0.42
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moreirense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis100%
Gianluca Prestianni67%
Clément Lenglet33%
Rafa Silva33%
Jhon Durán33%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Araújo33%
Georgiy Sudakov33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Vangelis Pavlidis0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander Bah33%
Leandro Barreiro33%
Vangelis Pavlidis33%
Enzo Barrenechea33%
Tomás Araújo33%
Gianluca Prestianni33%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Prestianni100%
Vangelis Pavlidis67%
Clément Lenglet0%
Rafa Silva0%
Jhon Durán0%
Alexander Bah0%
Dodi Lukebakio0%
Leandro Barreiro0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Enzo Barrenechea0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Samuel Soares0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Moreirense · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nile John33%
João Veloso33%
Kiko33%
André Ferreira0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nile John67%
Kiko67%
Guilherme Liberato33%
Gilberto Batista33%
Rodrigo Alonso33%
Leandro Santos33%
André Ferreira0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
João Veloso0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexandre Parsemain33%
João Veloso33%
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Ferreira0%
Nile John0%
Guilherme Liberato0%
Alexandre Parsemain0%
Gilberto Batista0%
Rodrigo Alonso0%
João Veloso0%
Kiko0%
Mateja Stjepanović0%
Landerson0%
Leandro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Benfica's squad is €335m more valuable than Moreirense's (€357m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Benfica's attack is €167m more valuable than Moreirense's (€172m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Benfica's midfield is €68m more valuable than Moreirense's (€77m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Benfica's defence is €99m more valuable than Moreirense's (€108m vs €9m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Chaves
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Feirense
Pacos Ferreira
Estoril