The model designates an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 65 % chance to Sardarapat triumphing over Bentonit Ijevan. This preference stems from Sardarapat’s strong away form - averaging 2.58 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded against weaker opponents - contrasted with Bentonit’s struggle at home, where they average 1.45 scored and 1.91 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 3.2 goals points to a lively contest, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Sardarapat, carrying a 10.2 % probability. Home win stands at 14 %, draw at 21 %, and away win at 65 %. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.6 % probability. Bentonit entered the match after a draw in their last game, while Sardarapat remained unbeaten in their final five outings. These figures together paint a picture of a match where Sardarapat’s offensive potency and Bentonit’s defensive frailties combine to make an away victory the most probable outcome.
Results analysis
The match saw Sardarapat extend their unbeaten run, while Bentonit Ijevan finished coming off a draw. The model’s favourite was an Away win, with a 65 % probability, and it proved correct as Sardarapat triumphed 1-3. The predicted most likely scoreline of 1-2 missed, but the total goals hit the Over 1.5 selection, which the model had set at 83.6 %. The final score matched the actual result, confirming the model’s overall accuracy. The outcome also aligned with the pre-match odds, reinforcing confidence in the model’s predictive strength.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bentonit Ijevan win✗ Miss
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat win✓ Hit
64.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bentonit Ijevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.47
2.00
0.80
1.27
vs Stronger (22)
1.00
1.73
1.45
1.91
0.55
1.55
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.38
1.50
2.25
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.69
0.59
2.87
0.53
2.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.84
0.64
3.08
0.62
2.58
0.67
Clean sheet %
55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.6%
Under 1.5
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.2%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
0-1
8.3%
0-3
7.5%
1-3 ✓
7.3%
0-0
5.0%
2-2
4.8%
Bentonit Ijevan goals ↓
Sardarapat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
8.3%
10%
7.5%
4.2%
1
3.1%
9.8%
9.8%
7.3%
4.0%
2
1.9%
4.3%
4.8%
3.5%
2.0%
3
0.6%
1.4%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bentonit Ijevan goals (down), columns = Sardarapat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Bentonit Ijevan is 1.57 points worse than Sardarapat in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 2.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Bentonit Ijevan is 1.60 goals worse than Sardarapat in terms of goals scored per game (1.10 vs 2.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Bentonit Ijevan is 1.03 goals worse than Sardarapat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bentonit Ijevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.60
0.87
0.13
0.60
vs Stronger (22)
0.41
0.86
0.73
1.00
0.09
0.73
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.38
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.45
0.21
1.80
0.20
1.07
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.60
0.24
2.00
0.23
1.17
0.25
Clean sheet %
79% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bentonit Ijevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.87
1.13
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.59
0.86
0.73
0.91
0.45
0.82
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.00
1.25
1.75
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.24
0.38
1.07
0.33
1.43
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.24
0.40
1.08
0.38
1.42
0.42
Clean sheet %
62% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (27)
€2m
BI (40)
€2m
HAY (36)
€1m
AND (40)
€1m
SYU (27)
€1m
NI (44)
€1m
BI (46)
€1m
SI (51)
€1m
PI (38)
€1m
LA (55)
€0m
BI (47)
€0m
MIK (42)
€0m
AI (34)
€0m
Bentonit Ijevan's squad is €2m less valuable than Sardarapat's (€0m vs €2m).
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →