The contest between BFA and Babrungas is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probability of a BFA victory sits at 41%, a draw at 30%, and a Babrungas win at 29%. The expected goal tally is 2.4, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability, though the model’s pick remains a BFA win.
BFA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Babrungas, on the road versus a weaker side, averages 2.38 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. These figures suggest BFA’s defence is more tested, while Babrungas’ attack is potent.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.5%), Under 4.5 (90.3%), and Home +2 handicap (88.3%). Each pick carries its own probability, with no overlap of win probabilities.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as BFA secured a 1-0 win, extending their recent run with a draw in the previous match. The favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 41% probability and the result matched the forecast. The game’s low-scoring nature was confirmed by the model’s selections: Under 7.5 (99.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.6%) hit, Under 5.5 (96.4%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (90.5%) hit, Under 4.5 (90.3%) hit, and Home +2 handicap (88.3%) hit. All predictions were settled and each hit, underscoring the model’s strong performance in this Cup encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Babrungas win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.30
1.73
0.93
1.73
1.67
vs Stronger (15)
1.80
1.47
1.86
1.14
1.75
1.75
vs Similar (10)
1.70
1.40
1.80
1.20
1.60
1.60
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.17
2.57
1.50
2.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
3.00
0.80
3.50
1.00
2.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.40
1.24
2.42
1.58
2.38
0.92
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0 ✓
10.7%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.2%
BFA goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.4%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.6%
4.6%
1.7%
0.4%
3
3.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Panevėžys
3.00
Džiugas Telšiai
2.50
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Babrungas
2.25
Šiauliai
2.00
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2.00
Alternatyvus FK
2.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.00
Tauras
2.00
Hegelmann Litauen
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
1.50
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Utenis Utena
1.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.50
VGTU Vilkai
1.50
Sirijus Klaipėda
1.50
Banga
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Atmosfera
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Ekranas
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Nevėžis
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.00
OG Kaišiadorys
1.00
FK Sumskas
1.00
FK Ketera
1.00
Radviliškis
1.00
Svyturys
1.00
Vilniaus Vytis
1.00
FK Inter Nemencine
1.00
Nadruvis
1.00
Granitas
1.00
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.00
Kaunas City FA
1.00
Sendvaris
0.00
Viltis Vilnius
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
Širvėna Biržai
0.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Venta
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Geležinis Vilkas
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
FK Trakai
0.00
BFA
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA is 2.25 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ekranas
9.00
Tauras
6.33
Panevėžys
4.60
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4.00
Atmosfera
4.00
Cementininkas Akmenė
3.00
VGTU Vilkai
3.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
3.00
Babrungas
3.00
Klaipėdos FM
2.50
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.50
Sveikata
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.33
Suduva Marijampole
2.25
Hegelmann Litauen
2.20
Utenis Utena
2.00
Pempininkai Gargždai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Minija
2.00
Jonava
2.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.75
Futboliukas Vilnius
1.65
OG Kaišiadorys
1.65
FK Sumskas
1.65
FK Ketera
1.65
Radviliškis
1.65
Svyturys
1.65
Vilniaus Vytis
1.65
FK Inter Nemencine
1.65
Nadruvis
1.65
Granitas
1.65
FK Jurbarko Imsre
1.65
Kaunas City FA
1.65
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Be1 NFA
1.50
Šiauliai
1.33
Viltis Vilnius
1.00
Širvėna Biržai
1.00
Kauno Žalgiris
1.00
Venta
1.00
Geležinis Vilkas
1.00
FK Trakai
1.00
Banga
1.00
BFA
1.00
Vilnius FA
0.50
Garliava
0.50
Sendvaris
0.00
Šilutė
0.00
FKS Ukmergė
0.00
Tera
0.00
Trivartis Vilnius
0.00
Ataka Vilnius
0.00
Nemunas
0.00
Utenos Utena
0.00
Saned Joniškis
0.00
Dainava
0.00
BFA is 2.00 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Panevėžys
0.20
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.50
Banga
0.50
Babrungas
0.50
Be1 NFA
0.50
Hegelmann Litauen
0.60
Minija
0.67
Suduva Marijampole
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00
Šilutė
1.00
Nemunas
1.00
Džiugas Telšiai
1.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
Šiauliai
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris
1.33
Tauras
1.33
Cementininkas Akmenė
1.50
Klaipėdos FM
1.50
Garliava
1.50
Sveikata
1.50
Jonava
1.75
Vilnius FA
2.00
Utenos Utena
2.00
FK Trakai
2.00
Nevėžis
2.00
Sirijus Klaipėda
2.50
Alternatyvus FK
2.67
Viltis Vilnius
3.00
Širvėna Biržai
3.00
Utenis Utena
3.00
Ataka Vilnius
3.00
BFA
3.00
Futboliukas Vilnius
3.02
OG Kaišiadorys
3.02
FK Sumskas
3.02
FK Ketera
3.02
Radviliškis
3.02
Svyturys
3.02
Vilniaus Vytis
3.02
FK Inter Nemencine
3.02
Nadruvis
3.02
Granitas
3.02
FK Jurbarko Imsre
3.02
Kaunas City FA
3.02
VGTU Vilkai
3.50
Pempininkai Gargždai
4.00
FKS Ukmergė
4.00
Geležinis Vilkas
5.00
Venta
6.00
Saned Joniškis
6.00
Dainava
6.00
Tera
8.00
Sendvaris
13.00
Trivartis Vilnius
13.00
BFA is 2.50 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFA or Draw✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers BFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA or Babrungas✓ Hit
70.1%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers BFA + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Babrungas✗ Miss
58.8%
Avg Implied -
41%
30%
29%
covers Draw + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFA over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFA, so a minus line means BFA give that many goals of a start and Babrungas receive them. At -1, BFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFA)Actual: Babrungas
BFA -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.5%
Babrungas +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFA)Actual: Draw
BFA -1
19.6%
Draw -1
21.6%
Babrungas +1
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFA)Actual: BFA
BFA +1
71.1%
Draw +1
17.2%
Babrungas -1
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFA)Actual: BFA
BFA +2
88.3%
Draw +2
8.2%
Babrungas -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.67
0.40
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.67
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.88
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.40
0.80
0.60
1.40
0.20
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.29
0.64
1.06
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.16
0.56
1.33
0.75
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
1.07
0.53
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (15)
1.27
0.80
1.29
0.71
1.25
0.88
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.60
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.67
1.29
0.86
1.38
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.80
0.60
2.50
1.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
1.24
0.68
1.08
0.83
1.38
0.54
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →