The model favours an away win, with the probability that Babrungas will come away with victory standing at 42%. A draw is slightly less likely at 27%, while a home win sits at 30%. The expected total goals hover around 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% chance.
BFA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and concedes 1.0 per game. Babrungas, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.33 goals scored and concedes only 0.73. The recent form notes that BFA is coming off a draw, whereas Babrungas is riding a win.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.3%) and Under 5.5 (93.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win
32.2%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.44
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Babrungas win
40.3%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.91
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Dafabet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.92
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.20
1.73
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
1.27
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.44
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.25
2.00
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.03
2.31
1.38
2.18
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.26
1.07
2.17
1.50
2.33
0.73
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
@ 1.27+6.1%
Under 1.5
21.8%
@ 3.27-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.2%
@ 1.85+4.0%
Under 2.5
46.8%
@ 1.79-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.9%
@ 3.16+1.9%
Under 3.5
69.1%
@ 1.29-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
57.9%
@ 1.72+4.8%
No
42.1%
@ 1.94-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Unibet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Unibet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.15+6.2%
1-2
8.8%@ 7.89+3.5%
0-1
7.8%@ 6.86+1.7%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.79+3.9%
0-0
7.2%@ 9.13+2.6%
1-0
6.8%@ 9.56+2.3%
0-2
6.7%@ 8.47+1.8%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.00+2.6%
BFA goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
7.8%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
1
6.8%
13%
8.8%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.2%
7.8%
5.8%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.3%
3.4%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
BFA is 0.29 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
BFA is 0.43 goals better than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
BFA is 0.57 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFA or Draw
59.7%
Avg Implied 52.4% · @ 1.73
Edge
+7.3%
32%
28%
40%
covers BFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
BetVictor
1.73
BFA or Babrungas
72.5%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.9%
32%
28%
40%
covers BFA + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Draw or Babrungas
67.8%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.23
Edge
-6.4%
32%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Babrungas
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
@ 1.41+8.2%
Under
26.9%
@ 2.61-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.67
1xBet
2.65
Unibet
2.50
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
@ 2.90+6.2%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.34-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.90
Under
1xBet
1.34
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
@ 8.00+3.2%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.03-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5
Over
77.5%
@ 1.19-0.4%
Under
22.5%
@ 4.20+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.20
Babrungas over/under 1.5
Over
43.9%
@ 1.97-2.6%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.71+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.62
Babrungas over/under 2.5
Over
18.9%
@ 4.00-4.0%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.19+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.19
Babrungas over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFA, so a minus line means BFA give that many goals of a start and Babrungas receive them. At -1, BFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFA)
BFA -2
5.1%
Draw -2
9.6%
Babrungas +2
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFA)
BFA -1
14.7%
@ 6.65+1.9%
Draw -1
17.5%
@ 4.55-1.2%
Babrungas +1
67.8%
@ 1.25-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
7.50
Unibet
5.80
Draw
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.10
Away
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.21
Handicap +1 (BFA)
BFA +1
59.7%
@ 1.68+9.7%
Draw +1
20.1%
@ 3.35-4.9%
Babrungas -1
20.2%
@ 3.35-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.62
Draw
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.10
Away
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.10
Handicap +2 (BFA)
BFA +2
79.8%
Draw +2
12.4%
Babrungas -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.17
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.00
0.25
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.23
0.69
0.94
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.56
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.34+3.0%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 2.72-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.81
Unibet
2.63
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 2.57-2.6%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.38+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.63
William Hil
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
@ 6.53-2.1%
Under 2.5
88.0%
@ 1.07+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Under
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
@ 2.35+5.7%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.50-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
1xBet
2.33
Under
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.0%
@ 7.30-1.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.06+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Under
1xBet
1.06
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
@ 11.00-5.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.0%
@ 1.82-2.3%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.85+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.84
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.4%
@ 4.85-7.5%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.13+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.85
Under
1xBet
1.13
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
@ 11.00-5.7%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
0.73
1.00
0.83
1.22
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.08
0.69
1.24
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.19
0.52
1.00
0.75
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.22+3.2%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 3.80-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Under
1xBet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.8%
@ 2.07+0.1%
Under 1.5
55.2%
@ 1.67-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Under
1xBet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.9%
@ 4.40-0.9%
Under 2.5
80.1%
@ 1.16+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Under
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.6%
@ 2.00+2.4%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.72-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.72
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.6%
@ 5.85+0.7%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.10-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.85
Under
1xBet
1.10
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
@ 11.00-4.6%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Under
1xBet
1.01
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
@ 1.62-2.9%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.11+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.11
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.5%
@ 3.80-4.6%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.21+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Under
1xBet
1.21
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
@ 9.10-4.6%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.4%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
+0.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
-
-
+7.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.07
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.2%
Away +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.7%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
-
-
-0.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
-
-0.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.21
1xBet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Over 1.5
78.2%
1.27
Unibet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
+6.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
-
-
-
-0.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.41
1xBet
1.43
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
-
-
+8.2%
Home or Away
72.5%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-0.9%
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
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Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava