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BFA vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 3-1
BFA
BFA
Vs
41%
27%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives BFA a 41% win probability against Be1 NFA in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga on 2026-07-26, with 27% for the draw and 31% for Be1 NFA. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.9%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (79%).

Results analysis

BFA finished 3-1 against Be1 NFA (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 41% home win, 27% draw and 31% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFA win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D10W03L00D13L15L32W20W22D41WA·MIN30/08H·ŽAL12/09A·TRA20/09A·BE126/09A·BAB04/10H·NEP18/10A·TAU25/10H·NEV31/10A·ATM09/11A·EKR19/07
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.231.730.931.531.53
vs Stronger (14)1.431.862.001.860.861.86
vs Similar (10)1.700.701.600.201.801.20
vs Weaker (6)2.000.671.330.002.671.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D13L31W00D40W13L41W30W30WH·TAU22/08A·NEV29/08H·ATM14/09A·EKR21/09H·BFA26/09A·KAU05/10H·HEG17/10H·PAN24/10H·FA 31/10A·MIN09/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.701.001.801.331.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.503.001.003.330.002.67
vs Weaker (24)1.331.381.001.421.671.33
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
BFA goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
07.1%6.5%5.0%2.2%0.7%
17.8%13%7.7%3.3%1.1%
26.8%8.9%5.8%2.5%0.8%
33.5%4.5%3.0%1.3%0.4%
41.3%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Transinvest 2
1.41
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Dainava
1.36
Minija
1.20
Garliava
1.10
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
BFA is 0.83 points better than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
Transinvest 2
1.54
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Garliava
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.17
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
BFA is 0.40 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Transinvest 2
1.58
Žalgiris II
1.60
Dainava
1.63
Hegelmann II
1.70
Be1 NFA
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Garliava
2.03
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
BFA is 0.50 goals better than Be1 NFA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
FŠI (0)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
HI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
ŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

BFA vs Be1 NFA · H/A from BFA
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25ABe1 NFA Vs BFA0-0
24/05/25HBFA Vs Be1 NFA3-0
14/09/24HBFA Vs Be1 NFA0-1
26/04/24ABe1 NFA Vs BFA1-0
16/09/23HBFA Vs Be1 NFA0-1
20/04/23ABe1 NFA Vs BFA2-1
03/09/22HBFA Vs Be1 NFA1-1
01/05/22ABe1 NFA Vs BFA3-2

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26AEkranas Vs BFA1-4
09/11/25AAtmosfera Vs BFA2-2
31/10/25HBFA Vs Nevėžis2-0
25/10/25ATauras Vs BFA2-3
18/10/25HBFA Vs Neptūną Klaipėda1-5
04/10/25ABabrungas Vs BFA3-1
26/09/25ABe1 NFA Vs BFA0-0
20/09/25ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs BFA3-0
12/09/25HBFA Vs Žalgiris II1-0
30/08/25AMinija Vs BFA1-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/25AMinija Vs BN0-3
31/10/25HBN Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
24/10/25HBN Vs Panevėžys II4-1
17/10/25HBN Vs Hegelmann II1-3
05/10/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs BN0-4
26/09/25HBN Vs BFA0-0
21/09/25AEkranas Vs BN1-3
14/09/25HBN Vs Atmosfera1-3
29/08/25ANevėžis Vs BN0-0
22/08/25HBN Vs Tauras0-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.58
HomeWWWLW1.83
AwayDLWDW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%35%
AVG goals3.083.083.08
Over 1.5 %78%67%88%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %44%42%46%
Scored1.661.881.46
Conceded1.421.211.62
BTTS52%38%65%
Clean Sheet30%46%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.40
HomeLDLWW1.62
AwayLDWWW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%46%33%
AVG goals2.822.962.67
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %38%42%33%
Scored1.441.691.17
Conceded1.381.271.50
BTTS46%54%38%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II513
80%
2.6
103+7
2.6
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.6
-
2BabrungasBabrungas512
80%
2.4
102+8
2.4
80%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.4
-
3BFABFA510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
60%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda510
60%
2.0
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija49
75%
2.2
121+11
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.00.2
-
6DainavaDainava48
50%
2.0
63+3
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
7TaurasTauras47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
8JonavaJonava46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
9Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II56
40%
1.2
810-2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.0
-
10AtmosferaAtmosfera44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Transinvest 2Transinvest 254
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II44
25%
1.0
47-3
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13EkranasEkranas54
20%
0.8
413-9
3.4
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
14Be1 NFABe1 NFA43
25%
0.8
39-6
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
15Hegelmann IIHegelmann II53
20%
0.6
513-8
3.6
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.6
-
16GarliavaGarliava40
0%
0.0
16-5
1.8
25%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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