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BFA vs Minija Prediction & Stats

Date: 24/10/2026
Time: 12:00
BFA
BFA
Vs
29%
26%
44%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Minija’s recent four-game winning streak gives the visitors the edge, and the model favours an away win. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability. BFA, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages two goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Minija, on the road, averages 2.5 scored and 0.75 conceded. Home win probability sits at 30%, draw at 26%, and away win at 44%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Under 5.5 (91.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.4%), Away +2 handicap (86.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.3%), and Under 4.5 (82.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFA win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W21W03L41W31W01L42W00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.201.731.001.601.40
vs Stronger (15)1.531.271.331.001.671.44
vs Similar (8)1.381.252.001.200.331.33
vs Weaker (7)2.291.002.000.752.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-12120W22D11D21W01L40W30W50W21W32WA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.371.071.792.311.00
vs Stronger (11)1.551.641.172.002.001.20
vs Similar (15)1.871.201.141.712.500.75
vs Weaker (4)1.751.250.001.002.331.33
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
BFA goals ↓
Minija goals →
01234
06.4%7.5%7.1%3.9%1.6%
15.8%12%9.2%5.0%2.1%
24.5%7.4%6.0%3.3%1.3%
32.0%3.2%2.6%1.4%0.6%
40.6%1.0%0.9%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
BFA is 0.40 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
BFA is 0.66 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (2.14 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
BFA is 0.60 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFA or Draw
55.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
44%
covers BFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA or Minija
73.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
44%
covers BFA + Minija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Minija
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
26%
44%
covers Draw + Minija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
72.9%
Under
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
Under
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to BFA, so a minus line means BFA give that many goals of a start and Minija receive them. At -1, BFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFA)
BFA -2
4.5%
Draw -2
8.7%
Minija +2
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFA)
BFA -1
13.2%
Draw -1
16.3%
Minija +1
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFA)
BFA +1
55.9%
Draw +1
20.7%
Minija -1
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFA)
BFA +2
76.6%
Draw +2
13.6%
Minija -2
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D01L30W10W01L20W00D00D00DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.670.330.670.60
vs Stronger (15)0.400.530.330.170.440.78
vs Similar (8)0.620.620.800.600.330.67
vs Weaker (7)1.290.141.000.251.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-880W10W00D10W01L10W10W10W00D01LA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.360.711.120.44
vs Stronger (11)0.640.550.500.500.800.60
vs Similar (15)0.870.670.291.001.380.38
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L11D21W00D22D00D20W22DH·BAB28/04H·GAR19/05H·KAU23/06A·EKR19/07H·BE126/07A·FA 02/08H·TRA08/08A·DAI15/08H·NEP22/08A·TAU28/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.731.070.670.930.80
vs Stronger (15)1.130.731.000.831.220.67
vs Similar (8)0.750.621.200.600.000.67
vs Weaker (7)1.000.861.000.501.001.33
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MinijaMinija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W12L11D11D00D30W20W40W21W31WA·GEL12/04H·SUD28/04A·PEM19/05H·PAN23/06A·ŽAL28/07A·HEG31/07H·BE108/08A·EKR14/08A·FA 28/08H·DAI01/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.800.711.071.190.56
vs Stronger (11)0.911.090.671.501.200.60
vs Similar (15)1.000.530.860.711.120.38
vs Weaker (4)1.001.000.001.001.331.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.9%-------
Under 6.596.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.6%-------
Under 5.592.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals91.6%-------
Away +2 handicap86.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals85.6%-------
Under 4.582.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals80.5%-------
Over 1.580.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals77.4%-------
Home +2 handicap76.6%-------
Home or Away73.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals72.9%-------
Draw or Away70.6%-------
Away +1 handicap70.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
BFA and Minija have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
BFA wins
3
Draws
2
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFA vs Minija · H/A from BFA
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/25AMinija Vs BFA1-1
03/05/25HBFA Vs Minija1-0
17/08/24HBFA Vs Minija1-1
23/03/24AMinija Vs BFA0-1
28/10/23HBFA Vs Minija2-0
10/06/23AMinija Vs BFA1-1
30/09/22HBFA Vs Minija2-3
10/08/22AMinija Vs BFA3-1

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26ATauras Vs BFA2-2
22/08/26HBFA Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-0
15/08/26ADainava Vs BFA0-0
08/08/26HBFA Vs Transinvest 24-2
02/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA1-0
26/07/26HBFA Vs Be1 NFA3-1
19/07/26AEkranas Vs BFA1-4
23/06/26HBFA Vs Kauno Žalgiris0-3
19/05/26HBFA Vs Garliava2-1
28/04/26HBFA Vs Babrungas1-0

MinijaMinija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/09/26HMIN Vs Dainava3-2
28/08/26AFA Šiauliai II Vs MIN1-2
14/08/26AEkranas Vs MIN0-5
08/08/26HMIN Vs Be1 NFA3-0
31/07/26AHegelmann II Vs MIN0-4
28/07/26AŽalgiris II Vs MIN1-0
23/06/26HMIN Vs Panevėžys2-1
19/05/26APempininkai Gargždai Vs MIN1-1
28/04/26HMIN Vs Suduva Marijampole2-2
12/04/26AGeležinis Vilkas Vs MIN0-12

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWD1.76
HomeWLWWW2.12
AwayWWLDD1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals2.902.793.00
Over 1.5 %74%67%81%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.661.711.62
Conceded1.241.081.38
BTTS50%42%58%
Clean Sheet34%46%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Minija
Minija
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.40
HomeLDWWW1.17
AwayDLWWW1.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals2.722.502.92
Over 1.5 %68%71%65%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.401.001.77
Conceded1.321.501.15
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet30%25%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II719
86%
2.7
156+9
3.0
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.10.9
-
2BabrungasBabrungas716
71%
2.3
123+9
2.1
71%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.4
-
3BFABFA714
57%
2.0
157+8
3.1
71%
57%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.0
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda713
57%
1.9
1010+0
2.9
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5MinijaMinija512
80%
2.4
142+12
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.4
-
6DainavaDainava69
33%
1.5
75+2
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
7Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II69
50%
1.5
1110+1
3.5
100%
83%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Be1 NFABe1 NFA69
50%
1.5
109+1
3.2
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9TaurasTauras69
33%
1.5
98+1
2.8
83%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
10JonavaJonava69
50%
1.5
76+1
2.2
67%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.0
-
11FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II67
33%
1.2
69-3
2.5
67%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II76
29%
0.9
818-10
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.6
-
13AtmosferaAtmosfera65
17%
0.8
811-3
3.2
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
14Transinvest 2Transinvest 274
14%
0.6
1116-5
3.9
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.3
-
15EkranasEkranas74
14%
0.6
621-15
3.9
100%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
16GarliavaGarliava60
0%
0.0
19-8
1.7
33%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.21.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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