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BFA vs Nevėžis Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2024
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
BFA
BFA
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFA win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis win✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFABFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W20W14L24L20W11D10W10W32W22DA·TRA22/10H·MIN28/10H·TRA01/11A·FA 05/11H·GAR08/11H·EKR09/03H·GAR16/03A·MIN23/03H·BAB30/03A·NEP05/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.331.291.361.441.31
vs Stronger (15)1.201.531.001.881.431.14
vs Similar (9)2.001.332.001.002.001.50
vs Weaker (6)0.830.831.330.330.331.33
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D13L03L00D41W01L21W10W21W10WA·BE104/10A·KAU22/10H·NEP28/10A·JON04/11H·TRA08/11H·BAN08/03A·ATM15/03H·PAN22/03A·KAU29/03H·FA 05/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.131.800.931.271.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.181.181.800.800.671.50
vs Weaker (19)1.741.111.801.001.671.22
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.2%
Under 2.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.4%
Under 3.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.7%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
BFA goals ↓
Nevėžis goals →
01234
08.7%8.0%5.8%2.4%0.8%
18.8%14%7.8%3.3%1.0%
26.8%8.5%5.3%2.2%0.7%
33.0%3.8%2.4%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Nevėžis goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FK Trakai
2.47
Be1 NFA
2.10
Babrungas
1.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.90
Tauras
1.57
Nevėžis
1.57
Atmosfera
1.47
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.23
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.13
Panevėžys II
1.13
FA Šiauliai II
1.07
Minija
1.03
Garliava
0.77
Banga II
0.40
BFA is 0.33 points worse than Nevėžis in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FK Trakai
2.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.13
Be1 NFA
1.90
Babrungas
1.87
Tauras
1.83
FA Šiauliai II
1.77
BFA
1.50
Nevėžis
1.47
Ekranas
1.40
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.30
Hegelmann II
1.23
Panevėžys II
1.23
Atmosfera
1.20
Garliava
0.97
Minija
0.93
Banga II
0.60
BFA is 0.03 goals better than Nevėžis in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FK Trakai
0.63
Be1 NFA
0.87
Babrungas
0.93
Tauras
1.03
Nevėžis
1.07
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.27
Atmosfera
1.30
Minija
1.33
Ekranas
1.60
BFA
1.60
Garliava
1.70
Panevėžys II
1.77
Hegelmann II
1.97
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.03
Banga II
2.27
FA Šiauliai II
2.30
BFA is 0.53 goals worse than Nevėžis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFABFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W01L12L10W10W00D00D11D11DA·TRA22/10H·MIN28/10H·TRA01/11A·FA 05/11H·GAR08/11H·EKR09/03H·GAR16/03A·MIN23/03H·BAB30/03A·NEP05/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.500.360.500.560.50
vs Stronger (15)0.330.670.250.750.430.57
vs Similar (9)0.670.560.330.330.830.67
vs Weaker (6)0.500.000.670.000.330.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D11D01L00D11D00D10W10W00D10WA·BE104/10A·KAU22/10H·NEP28/10A·JON04/11H·TRA08/11H·BAN08/03A·ATM15/03H·PAN22/03A·KAU29/03H·FA 05/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.330.800.470.530.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.360.600.600.170.17
vs Weaker (19)0.840.320.900.400.780.22
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFABFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W13L12L10W01L10W10W21W11DA·TRA22/10H·MIN28/10H·TRA01/11A·FA 05/11H·GAR08/11H·EKR09/03H·GAR16/03A·MIN23/03H·BAB30/03A·NEP05/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.830.930.860.880.81
vs Stronger (15)0.870.870.751.121.000.57
vs Similar (9)1.330.781.670.671.170.83
vs Weaker (6)0.330.830.670.330.001.33
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L02L00D30W01L11D00D21W00DA·BE104/10A·KAU22/10H·NEP28/10A·JON04/11H·TRA08/11H·BAN08/03A·ATM15/03H·PAN22/03A·KAU29/03H·FA 05/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.801.000.470.731.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.820.821.200.200.501.33
vs Weaker (19)0.890.790.900.600.891.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
BFA wins
2
Draws
1
NEV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFA vs Nevėžis · H/A from BFA
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23ANevėžis Vs BFA2-2
30/04/23HBFA Vs Nevėžis0-2
24/09/22HBFA Vs Nevėžis1-1
01/04/22ANevėžis Vs BFA0-2

BFABFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/24ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BFA2-2
30/03/24HBFA Vs Babrungas3-2
23/03/24AMinija Vs BFA0-1
16/03/24HBFA Vs Garliava1-0
09/03/24HBFA Vs Ekranas1-1
08/11/23HBFA Vs Garliava2-0
05/11/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs BFA4-2
01/11/23HBFA Vs TransINVEST Vilnius1-4
28/10/23HBFA Vs Minija2-0
22/10/23ATrakai II Vs BFA1-3

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/24HNEV Vs FA Šiauliai II1-0
29/03/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs NEV1-2
22/03/24HNEV Vs Panevėžys II1-0
15/03/24AAtmosfera Vs NEV1-2
08/03/24HNEV Vs Banga II0-1
08/11/23HNEV Vs TransINVEST Vilnius4-1
04/11/23AJonava Vs NEV0-0
28/10/23HNEV Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-3
22/10/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs NEV3-1
04/10/23ABe1 NFA Vs NEV1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFA
BFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.28
HomeLWDWW1.68
AwayWWLWD0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%20%
AVG goals2.982.883.08
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %36%32%40%
Scored1.501.641.36
Conceded1.481.241.72
BTTS66%68%64%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.76
HomeLWLWW2.08
AwayDLDWW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals2.482.502.46
Over 1.5 %64%58%69%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %28%29%27%
Scored1.461.621.31
Conceded1.020.881.15
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet30%38%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FK TrakaiFK Trakai3074
80%
2.5
7019+51
3.0
73%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.6
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA3063
63%
2.1
5726+31
2.8
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3057
53%
1.9
5628+28
2.8
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3057
57%
1.9
6438+26
3.4
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.3
-
5TaurasTauras3047
43%
1.6
5531+24
2.9
73%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
6NevėžisNevėžis3047
43%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
7AtmosferaAtmosfera3044
43%
1.5
3639-3
2.5
70%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
8EkranasEkranas3039
33%
1.3
4248-6
3.0
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
9BFABFA3037
30%
1.2
4548-3
3.1
83%
53%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
10Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3035
33%
1.2
3961-22
3.3
97%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
11Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3034
30%
1.1
3753-16
3.0
80%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
12Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3034
33%
1.1
3759-22
3.2
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
13FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3032
33%
1.1
5369-16
4.1
87%
77%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.3
-
14MinijaMinija3031
20%
1.0
2840-12
2.3
67%
37%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
15GarliavaGarliava3023
17%
0.8
2951-22
2.7
67%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
16Banga IIBanga II3012
7%
0.4
1868-50
2.9
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.3
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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