The model favours an away win, with a 44% chance for Žalgiris II, 30% for BFA and 26% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at three, yet the most likely total is two, reflecting a tight contest. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.1% probability, underscoring the evenly matched nature of the sides. BFA, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages two goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Žalgiris II, on the road, maintains a 2-goal scoring average but concedes only 0.78, suggesting a defensive edge. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.2%), Under 5.5 (91.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.0%), Away +2 handicap (86.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (84.7%) and Over 1.5 (81.5%). BFA’s recent draw streak and Žalgiris II’s four-game winning run set the stage for a competitive encounter.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFA win
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.20
1.73
1.00
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
1.27
1.33
1.00
1.67
1.44
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.25
2.00
1.20
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.40
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.71
1.25
1.50
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.29
2.00
0.78
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
2.29
2.25
2.00
1.33
2.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.7%
Under 2.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.3%
Under 3.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
1-0
5.5%
BFA goals ↓
Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
7.2%
6.9%
3.9%
1.6%
1
5.5%
12%
9.2%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.4%
7.4%
6.1%
3.4%
1.4%
3
2.0%
3.3%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFA goals (down), columns = Žalgiris II goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
BFA is 0.71 points worse than Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
BFA and Žalgiris II are level in goals scored per game (both 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
BFA is 0.14 goals worse than Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFA or Draw
55.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers BFA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFA or Žalgiris II
73.9%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers BFA + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Žalgiris II
70.4%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
44%
covers Draw + Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFA over/under 0.5
Over
73.6%
Under
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFA, so a minus line means BFA give that many goals of a start and Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, BFA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFA)
BFA -2
4.6%
Draw -2
8.7%
Žalgiris II +2
86.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFA)
BFA -1
13.4%
Draw -1
16.2%
Žalgiris II +1
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFA)
BFA +1
55.7%
Draw +1
20.5%
Žalgiris II -1
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFA)
BFA +2
76.2%
Draw +2
13.7%
Žalgiris II -2
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.17
0.44
0.78
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.00
0.25
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.50
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.29
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
0.73
1.00
0.83
1.22
0.67
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
1.20
0.60
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Žalgiris II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.50
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
BFA and Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Žalgiris II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
BFA and Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
BFA and Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Dainava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava