The contest between BFC Daugavpils and Auda is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 32%, a draw at 27%, and an away triumph at 40%. The expected total goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals at a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13% probability.
BFC Daugavpils, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Auda, on the road against comparable opposition, averages 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The match is still very open, especially after BFC’s recent defeat and Auda’s recent draw.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 (93.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.4%), Away +2 handicap (85.3%), and Under 4.5 (84.7%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Auda win
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
1.93
1.86
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.05
2.00
1.45
1.09
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
4.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.37
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.33
2.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.31
1.14
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.50
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
7.3%
0-2
6.1%
2-0
5.8%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Auda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.5%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.3%
13%
8.4%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.2%
5.8%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.7%
3.8%
2.7%
1.3%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Auda goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
BFC Daugavpils is 0.38 points worse than Auda in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
BFC Daugavpils is 0.36 goals better than Auda in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.30 goals worse than Auda in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFC Daugavpils or Draw
63.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils or Auda
72.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Auda
64.6%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Auda
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5
Over
74.8%
Under
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5
Over
40.1%
Under
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFC Daugavpils, so a minus line means BFC Daugavpils give that many goals of a start and Auda receive them. At -1, BFC Daugavpils must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFC Daugavpils win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -2
6.1%
Draw -2
10.7%
Auda +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -1
16.7%
Draw -1
18.7%
Auda +1
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +1
63.1%
Draw +1
19.1%
Auda -1
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +2
82.3%
Draw +2
11.2%
Auda -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.79
0.71
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.41
0.82
0.64
0.18
0.18
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.50
0.44
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.14
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.83
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.64
1.18
0.82
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Auda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.55
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Auda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
BFC Daugavpils's squad is €3m less valuable than Auda's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils's attack is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Auda have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils's defence is €2m less valuable than Auda's (€1m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums