PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja Result & Analysis

Date: 14/05/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 0-4
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
26%
27%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L00D15L00D20W00D20W10W14L01LA·RĪG19/03H·VAL02/04A·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.821.361.170.830.402.00
vs Stronger (5)0.201.800.331.330.002.50
vs Similar (5)1.201.202.000.500.671.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %55% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W51W51W11D41W23L03L31W10W00DA·SPA01/04H·BFC06/04A·MET10/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK19/04H·RĪG23/04A·VAL27/04A·SUP02/05A·RIG06/05H·SPA10/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.251.002.001.002.501.00
vs Stronger (3)1.331.001.501.501.000.00
vs Similar (3)2.001.673.001.000.003.00
vs Weaker (6)2.830.671.500.503.500.75
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
9.3%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.3%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
FK Liepaja goals →
01234
07.9%9.3%8.3%4.4%1.7%
16.4%13%9.4%4.9%1.9%
24.3%6.7%5.3%2.8%1.1%
31.6%2.5%2.0%1.0%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = FK Liepaja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.36
Riga
2.25
Rīgas FS
2.11
FK Liepaja
1.94
Auda
1.50
Tukums
1.06
BFC Daugavpils
0.94
Spartaks Jurmala
0.86
Super Nova
0.56
Metta / LU
0.53
BFC Daugavpils is 1.00 points worse than FK Liepaja in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera / BSS
2.81
Rīgas FS
2.31
FK Liepaja
2.00
Riga
1.89
Auda
1.22
Metta / LU
1.06
Tukums
1.06
Spartaks Jurmala
1.03
BFC Daugavpils
0.83
Super Nova
0.67
BFC Daugavpils is 1.17 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.64
Valmiera / BSS
0.69
Rīgas FS
0.89
Auda
0.92
FK Liepaja
1.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Tukums
1.92
Spartaks Jurmala
2.08
Super Nova
2.25
Metta / LU
2.44
BFC Daugavpils is 0.69 goals worse than FK Liepaja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L00D00D00D10W00D12L01LA·RĪG19/03H·VAL02/04A·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.450.500.330.000.60
vs Stronger (5)0.200.800.330.670.001.00
vs Similar (5)0.200.200.500.000.000.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W21W01L10W01L00D10W10W00DA·SPA01/04H·BFC06/04A·MET10/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK19/04H·RĪG23/04A·VAL27/04A·SUP02/05A·RIG06/05H·SPA10/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.330.500.501.000.17
vs Stronger (3)0.670.330.500.501.000.00
vs Similar (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
vs Weaker (6)1.000.330.500.501.250.25
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L00D14L00D20W00D10W10W02L00DA·RĪG19/03H·VAL02/04A·FK 06/04H·RIG10/04H·SPA15/04A·SUP19/04H·MET24/04A·TUK30/04H·RĪG05/05A·VAL09/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.910.670.500.401.40
vs Stronger (5)0.001.000.000.670.001.50
vs Similar (5)1.001.001.500.500.671.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Liepaja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W41W30W10W31W22D03L21W00D00DA·SPA01/04H·BFC06/04A·MET10/04H·AUD14/04A·TUK19/04H·RĪG23/04A·VAL27/04A·SUP02/05A·RIG06/05H·SPA10/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.500.671.500.501.500.83
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (3)1.671.332.500.500.003.00
vs Weaker (6)1.830.331.000.002.250.50
Clean sheet %58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Liepaja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's squad is €2m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
SN (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils's attack is €1m less valuable than FK Liepaja's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepaja have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and FK Liepaja have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
BD wins
0
Draws
1
FL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs FK Liepaja · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/22AFK Liepaja Vs BD5-1

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/22AValmiera / BSS Vs BD1-0
05/05/22HBD Vs Rīgas FS1-4
30/04/22ATukums Vs BD0-1
24/04/22HBD Vs Metta / LU2-0
19/04/22ASuper Nova Vs BD0-0
15/04/22HBD Vs Spartaks Jurmala2-0
10/04/22HBD Vs Riga0-0
06/04/22AFK Liepaja Vs BD5-1
02/04/22HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS0-0
19/03/22ARīgas FS Vs BD4-0

FK LiepajaFK Liepaja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/22HFL Vs Spartaks Jurmala0-0
06/05/22ARiga Vs FL0-1
02/05/22ASuper Nova Vs FL1-3
27/04/22AValmiera / BSS Vs FL3-0
23/04/22HFL Vs Rīgas FS2-3
19/04/22ATukums Vs FL1-4
14/04/22HFL Vs Auda1-1
10/04/22AMetta / LU Vs FL1-5
06/04/22HFL Vs BFC Daugavpils5-1
01/04/22ASpartaks Jurmala Vs FL0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.36
HomeDDWWL1.83
AwayLLDWL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%20%
AVG goals2.182.002.40
Over 1.5 %55%67%40%
Over 2.5 %36%33%40%
Over 3.5 %27%17%40%
Scored0.821.170.40
Conceded1.360.832.00
BTTS27%33%20%
Clean Sheet55%67%40%
Corners---
Cards---
FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD2.17
HomeWWDLD1.83
AwayWWLWW2.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%50%83%
AVG goals3.253.003.50
Over 1.5 %75%67%83%
Over 2.5 %58%50%67%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored2.252.002.50
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet33%33%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS3685
72%
2.4
10125+76
3.5
89%
64%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.7
-
2RigaRiga3681
72%
2.2
6823+45
2.5
72%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7361.90.6
-
3Rīgas FSRīgas FS3676
61%
2.1
8332+51
3.2
86%
61%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.30.9
-
4FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3670
58%
1.9
7242+30
3.2
78%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.01.2
-
5AudaAuda3654
44%
1.5
4433+11
2.1
64%
39%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.20.9
-
6TukumsTukums3638
31%
1.1
3869-31
3.0
78%
61%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.9
-
7BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3634
25%
0.9
3067-37
2.7
72%
47%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.9
-
8Spartaks JurmalaSpartaks Jurmala3631
25%
0.9
3775-38
3.1
86%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.1
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3620
11%
0.6
2481-57
2.9
75%
53%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.72.2
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3619
11%
0.5
3888-50
3.5
89%
61%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.4
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

← all matches