BFC Daugavpils are the favourites to win this match, with a recent surge in form having won their last two games. They have shown resilience at home, scoring 1.55 goals on average while conceding 1.82. In contrast, FS Jelgava have struggled away from home, scoring only 0.67 goals and conceding 1.67.
The model predicts a 55% chance of a home win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 21% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.1. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.2%.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goal line, which has an 82.3% chance of occurring and is expected to have an edge of 7%. In terms of match probabilities, BFC Daugavpils have a 55% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include the Over 1.5 goal line, with a 82.3% probability, the Home win, with a 55% probability, and the Draw, with a 24% probability.
Results analysis
The win extends BFC Daugavpils' 2-game winning run, as they edged past FS Jelgava 2-1. The result was the actual outcome, aligning with the predicted home win, which the model correctly picked with a 55% probability. The model's selection was correct, as the model's call was true. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals hit, with an 82.3% probability, while the most likely total goals remained at 2, with a 23% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
54.7%
Avg Implied 44.2% · @ 2.05
Edge
+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
SBO
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.11
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.29
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
FS Jelgava win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.20
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
1xBet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
Betano
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.70
1.71
1.86
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (17)
1.29
1.82
1.14
2.29
1.40
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.30
2.00
1.33
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
4.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.43
1.00
1.19
0.93
1.71
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.56
1.00
2.17
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
@ 1.23+7.5%
Under 1.5
17.7%
@ 3.65-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.78+7.6%
Under 2.5
40.4%
@ 1.93-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 2.87+5.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.35-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Under
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
@ 1.65+3.7%
No
40.5%
@ 2.08-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betfair
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
No
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%@ 6.03+4.1%
2-1 ✓
9.8%@ 7.71+4.3%
2-0
8.6%@ 9.35+4.0%
1-0
7.8%@ 7.34+2.0%
3-1
6.4%@ 14.15+3.4%
1-2
5.8%@ 10.18+1.7%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.69+2.0%
0-0
5.6%@ 10.01+1.3%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
FS Jelgava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.2%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
1
7.8%
11%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
5.5%
6.4%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = FS Jelgava goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.60
FK Liepaja
2.00
Auda
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.86
Super Nova
1.40
Grobiņa
0.67
Ogre United
0.67
FS Jelgava
0.50
Tukums
0.43
BFC Daugavpils is 1.36 points better than FS Jelgava in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.20
Rīgas FS
2.40
FK Liepaja
2.17
BFC Daugavpils
1.71
Super Nova
1.20
Auda
1.20
Grobiņa
1.17
Ogre United
1.17
Tukums
0.71
FS Jelgava
0.67
BFC Daugavpils is 1.05 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Riga
0.40
Rīgas FS
0.60
Auda
0.60
BFC Daugavpils
0.86
Super Nova
1.00
FK Liepaja
1.17
FS Jelgava
1.83
Tukums
2.14
Grobiņa
3.00
Ogre United
3.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.98 goals better than FS Jelgava in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.79
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.65
0.71
0.57
0.20
0.70
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.83
0.83
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.44
0.56
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.80
0.22
0.67
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.93
1.14
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.18
0.43
1.71
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (FS Jelgava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FS Jelgava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.56
0.62
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.00
0.78
0.89
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.25
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.83
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FS Jelgava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
82.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Riga
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Ogre United
Grobiņa
Tukums