The model favours an away win, with a 55% chance for Rīga FS to come away with the victory, 24% for a draw and 21% for BFC Daugavpils to win. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability.
BFC Daugavpils, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Rīga FS, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded. Both sides have shown recent resilience, each ending their last match with a draw, 0-0 for Daugavpils and 3-3 for Rīga.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 95.9%, Away +2 handicap at 91.5%, Under 5.5 at 90.2%, Home under 2.5 goals at 88.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 86.1%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 86.1%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS win
58.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
1.93
1.86
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.05
2.00
1.45
1.09
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
4.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
1.37
2.93
1.67
1.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
1.91
1.33
2.17
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
3.11
1.05
4.00
1.33
2.30
0.80
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.2%
0-1
8.0%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.3%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
5.4%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Rīgas FS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
8.0%
9.2%
6.3%
3.2%
1
3.8%
11%
9.9%
6.8%
3.4%
2
2.6%
5.2%
5.4%
3.6%
1.9%
3
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
BFC Daugavpils is 0.80 points worse than Rīgas FS in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 2.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
BFC Daugavpils is 1.07 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.02 goals worse than Rīgas FS in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFC Daugavpils or Draw
41.4%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils or Rīgas FS
77.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Rīgas FS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS
81.6%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5
Over
60.5%
Under
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5
Over
33.5%
Under
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 3.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFC Daugavpils, so a minus line means BFC Daugavpils give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS receive them. At -1, BFC Daugavpils must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFC Daugavpils win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -2
2.0%
Draw -2
5.1%
Rīgas FS +2
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -1
7.1%
Draw -1
11.3%
Rīgas FS +1
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +1
41.4%
Draw +1
22.4%
Rīgas FS -1
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +2
63.7%
Draw +2
18.1%
Rīgas FS -2
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.79
0.71
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.41
0.82
0.64
0.18
0.18
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.40
0.93
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.91
0.50
1.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.58
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.2%
Under 1.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.64
1.18
0.82
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rīgas FS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.53
0.73
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.83
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.53
2.00
0.67
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.1%
Under 0.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.1%
Under 1.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.6%
Under 2.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rīgas FS · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Žiga Lipušček14%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Panić38%
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Adam Markhiyev25%
Roberts Savaļnieks12%
Herdi Prenga12%
Lasha Odisharia12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jānis Ikaunieks12%
Stefan Panić12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Darko Lemajić0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Adam Markhiyev0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jānis Ikaunieks25%
Darko Lemajić25%
Adam Markhiyev12%
Fabrice Ondoa0%
Luka Silagadze0%
Roberts Savaļnieks0%
Stefan Panić0%
Herdi Prenga0%
Elvis Stuglis0%
Alain Cedric Herve Kouadio0%
Daniels Balodis0%
Žiga Lipušček0%
Dmitrijs Zelenkovs0%
Lasha Odisharia0%
Victor Osuagwu0%
Haruna Njie0%
Rostand Ndjiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
BFC Daugavpils's squad is €8m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€3m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils's attack is €5m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Rīgas FS have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils's defence is €2m less valuable than Rīgas FS's (€1m vs €3m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
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Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Tukums