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BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums Result & Analysis

Date: 07/03/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 3-0
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Vs
55%
22%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
54.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D40W14L00D11D03L05L12L33D33DA·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09H·RĪG06/10H·RIG19/10H·AUD26/10H·VAL03/11A·FK 09/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.871.471.870.931.87
vs Stronger (10)0.703.300.803.800.602.80
vs Similar (17)1.291.121.621.001.001.22
vs Weaker (3)2.331.332.500.502.003.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1013L33D00D21W11D01L14L110L03L32WA·FK 01/09H·FS 15/09H·BFC21/09A·GRO28/09A·AUD02/10H·MET06/10A·RĪG20/10A·RIG27/10H·AUD03/11A·VAL09/11
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.371.062.000.932.79
vs Stronger (21)1.052.811.002.271.103.40
vs Similar (9)0.891.331.201.400.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.3%
No
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%
1-1
9.1%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
1-2
5.9%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.8%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Tukums goals →
01234
03.5%2.9%2.6%1.2%0.4%
15.0%9.1%5.9%2.8%1.0%
26.5%9.2%6.5%3.1%1.1%
34.8%6.8%4.8%2.3%0.8%
42.7%3.8%2.7%1.3%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga
2.44
Rīgas FS
2.42
FK Liepaja
1.69
BFC Daugavpils
1.33
Auda
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.06
Tukums
1.00
Grobiņa
0.95
Super Nova
0.89
Metta / LU
0.86
JDFS Alberts
0.50
BFC Daugavpils is 0.33 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rīgas FS
2.78
Riga
2.36
FK Liepaja
1.64
BFC Daugavpils
1.44
Super Nova
1.22
Auda
1.22
FS Jelgava
1.08
Metta / LU
1.08
Tukums
1.08
Grobiņa
0.89
JDFS Alberts
0.00
BFC Daugavpils is 0.36 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.50
Riga
0.72
Rīgas FS
1.08
FS Jelgava
1.28
Auda
1.36
FK Liepaja
1.53
Super Nova
1.56
Grobiņa
1.68
BFC Daugavpils
1.72
Tukums
1.75
Metta / LU
2.06
BFC Daugavpils is 0.03 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W03L00D00D02L02L10W11D22DA·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09H·RĪG06/10H·RIG19/10H·AUD26/10H·VAL03/11A·FK 09/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.870.730.930.670.80
vs Stronger (10)0.401.700.402.200.401.20
vs Similar (17)0.760.410.750.380.780.44
vs Weaker (3)1.330.671.500.001.002.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L31W00D21W00D00D02L14L01L11DA·FK 01/09H·FS 15/09H·BFC21/09A·GRO28/09A·AUD02/10H·MET06/10A·RĪG20/10A·RIG27/10H·AUD03/11A·VAL09/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.000.440.560.361.50
vs Stronger (21)0.331.240.270.640.401.90
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.800.400.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W11D00D11D01L03L02L22D11DA·FS 01/09H·GRO14/09A·RĪG17/09A·TUK21/09H·MET27/09H·RĪG06/10H·RIG19/10H·AUD26/10H·VAL03/11A·FK 09/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.730.930.271.07
vs Stronger (10)0.301.600.401.600.201.60
vs Similar (17)0.530.710.880.620.220.78
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TukumsTukums

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L02L00D00D11D01L12L06L02L21WA·FK 01/09H·FS 15/09H·BFC21/09A·GRO28/09A·AUD02/10H·MET06/10A·RĪG20/10A·RIG27/10H·AUD03/11A·VAL09/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.370.621.440.571.29
vs Stronger (21)0.711.570.731.640.701.50
vs Similar (9)0.330.890.401.000.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.570.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
M/L (4)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
BD wins
2
Draws
2
TUK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums · H/A from BD
DateH/AGameScore
21/09/24ATukums Vs BD0-0
03/07/24ATukums Vs BD1-2
12/05/24HBD Vs Tukums4-1
30/03/24HBD Vs Tukums3-1
01/09/23ATukums Vs BD3-0
26/06/23HBD Vs Tukums3-1
03/05/23HBD Vs Tukums3-3
12/03/23ATukums Vs BD1-0

BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24AFK Liepaja Vs BD3-3
03/11/24HBD Vs Valmiera / BSS3-3
26/10/24HBD Vs Auda1-2
19/10/24HBD Vs Riga0-5
06/10/24HBD Vs Rīgas FS0-3
27/09/24HBD Vs Metta / LU1-1
21/09/24ATukums Vs BD0-0
17/09/24ARīgas FS Vs BD4-1
14/09/24HBD Vs Grobiņa4-0
01/09/24AFS Jelgava Vs BD0-0

TukumsTukums

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24AValmiera / BSS Vs TUK2-3
03/11/24HTUK Vs Auda0-3
27/10/24ARiga Vs TUK10-1
20/10/24ARīgas FS Vs TUK4-1
06/10/24HTUK Vs Metta / LU0-1
02/10/24AAuda Vs TUK1-1
28/09/24AGrobiņa Vs TUK1-2
21/09/24HTUK Vs BFC Daugavpils0-0
15/09/24HTUK Vs FS Jelgava3-3
01/09/24AFK Liepaja Vs TUK3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 1 Wins / 5 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDD1.12
HomeDLLLD1.33
AwayLDLDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.663.002.35
Over 1.5 %68%83%54%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %30%33%27%
Scored1.061.420.73
Conceded1.601.581.62
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet30%29%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Tukums
Tukums
Latvia: Virsliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.94
HomeWDDLL1.15
AwayWDLLW0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%31%17%
AVG goals3.343.153.54
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %64%69%58%
Over 3.5 %40%35%46%
Scored1.061.270.83
Conceded2.281.882.71
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet20%27%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RigaRiga3688
75%
2.4
8526+59
3.1
81%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
7362.40.7
-
2Rīgas FSRīgas FS3687
78%
2.4
10039+61
3.9
78%
72%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
6232.81.1
-
3FK LiepajaFK Liepaja3661
50%
1.7
5955+4
3.2
83%
69%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.5
-
4BFC DaugavpilsBFC Daugavpils3648
36%
1.3
5262-10
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.7
-
5AudaAuda3645
36%
1.2
4449-5
2.6
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3031.21.4
-
6FS JelgavaFS Jelgava3638
22%
1.1
3946-7
2.4
69%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.11.3
-
7TukumsTukums3636
25%
1.0
3963-24
2.8
75%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.8
-
8GrobiņaGrobiņa3836
24%
0.9
3464-30
2.6
68%
37%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
9Super NovaSuper Nova3632
17%
0.9
4456-12
2.8
81%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.6
-
10Metta / LUMetta / LU3631
22%
0.9
3974-35
3.1
78%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts21
0%
0.5
01-1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.5
-
Latvia: Virsliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →

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