BFC Daugavpils are coming off a win, having beaten FS Jelgava 2-1, and are looking to continue their momentum against a struggling Tukums. However, the numbers suggest a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a probability of 10.2%.
The home side, BFC Daugavpils, have been scoring an average of 2 goals per match at home, with an average of 1.17 goals conceded. In contrast, Tukums have been scoring 1.4 goals per match away from home, with an average of 0.8 goals conceded. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 59%. The model also suggests the selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.8% and a 6% edge. The home win percentage is 59%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 19%.
Results analysis
The win extends BFC Daugavpils' 2-game winning run, their recent form a stark contrast to Tukums' woes. The 2-0 scoreline saw the home side emerge victorious, aligning with the actual result of Home win. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 59%. The model's call was correct, given the 2-0 final score. BFC Daugavpils' Over 1.5 selection hit, with a probability of 84.8%, while the most likely scores pointed to a 2-0 or 2-1 outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win✓ Hit
58.7%
Avg Implied 51.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.89
Dafabet
1.87
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
SBO
1.79
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.63
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.82
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Tukums win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.75
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.07
BetVictor
4.00
1xBet
3.95
Betfair
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.70
1.86
1.86
1.25
1.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.59
1.23
1.91
1.45
1.27
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
4.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.38
1.75
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
2.33
1.33
2.22
0.67
2.44
vs Similar (12)
1.42
1.00
1.43
1.14
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
@ 1.17+6.1%
Under 1.5
15.2%
@ 4.32-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.6%
@ 1.59+5.6%
Under 2.5
36.4%
@ 2.20-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
BetVictor
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Superbet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.5%
@ 2.47+4.2%
Under 3.5
58.5%
@ 1.47-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
888Sport
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.2%
@ 1.56+2.2%
No
38.8%
@ 2.24-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.60
William Hil
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
888Sport
1.57
No
Unibet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 6.72+3.8%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.49+4.1%
2-0 ✓
8.5%@ 8.91+3.7%
1-0
7.1%@ 8.21+1.9%
3-1
7.0%@ 11.50+3.3%
3-0
6.0%@ 13.81+2.9%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.19+1.9%
1-2
5.3%@ 11.13+1.5%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Tukums goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.4%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.1%
10%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.0%
7.0%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.2%
3.7%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
BFC Daugavpils is 1.25 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Grobiņa
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Auda
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
BFC Daugavpils is 0.75 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
BFC Daugavpils is 1.50 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.59
0.91
0.64
0.18
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.50
0.94
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
0.29
0.43
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.00
1.14
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.64
1.00
0.82
1.09
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.88
0.81
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.17
0.67
0.89
0.11
1.44
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.58
1.14
0.71
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.8%
1.17
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+6.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United