BFC Daugavpils are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 62% chance of a home win, 22% for a draw and 16% for a Tukums victory. The prediction favours a 1-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome with a 10.4% probability, while the expected total goals hover around 3.1. The match is projected to see two goals in 23% of the time, making a 2-goal total the most common total.
At home, Daugavpils average 2.0 goals scored and 1.45 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Tukums, on the road, average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. The venue advantage for the home side is amplified by Tukums’ recent slump, coming off a 1-4 loss after three straight defeats.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Home +2 handicap (94.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.9%), Under 5.5 (90.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.8%) and Home or Draw (83.8%). These picks reflect the high confidence in a modest, home-side-led contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BFC Daugavpils win
63.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tukums win
15.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BFC Daugavpils
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.57
1.93
1.86
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
3.40
0.50
4.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
1.05
2.00
1.45
1.09
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.33
4.00
2.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.00
1.31
2.00
0.86
2.00
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
2.39
1.33
2.22
0.67
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.25
1.42
1.29
1.71
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.4%
Under 2.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.5%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.3%
2-2
4.8%
BFC Daugavpils goals ↓
Tukums goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.5%
10%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.3%
7.1%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.9%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BFC Daugavpils goals (down), columns = Tukums goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rīgas FS
2.43
Riga
2.29
Auda
2.00
FK Liepaja
1.88
BFC Daugavpils
1.62
Super Nova
1.33
Grobiņa
1.00
FS Jelgava
0.86
Ogre United
0.57
Tukums
0.38
BFC Daugavpils is 1.25 points better than Tukums in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Riga
3.00
Rīgas FS
2.57
FK Liepaja
2.00
BFC Daugavpils
1.50
Super Nova
1.17
Auda
1.14
FS Jelgava
1.14
Grobiņa
1.14
Ogre United
1.00
Tukums
0.75
BFC Daugavpils is 0.75 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Auda
0.57
Rīgas FS
0.86
BFC Daugavpils
0.88
Super Nova
1.00
Riga
1.14
FK Liepaja
1.25
FS Jelgava
1.71
Tukums
2.38
Grobiņa
2.57
Ogre United
3.00
BFC Daugavpils is 1.50 goals better than Tukums in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BFC Daugavpils or Draw
84.9%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils or Tukums
78.4%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers BFC Daugavpils + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tukums
36.7%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Draw + Tukums
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5
Over
88.3%
Under
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 3.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BFC Daugavpils, so a minus line means BFC Daugavpils give that many goals of a start and Tukums receive them. At -1, BFC Daugavpils must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BFC Daugavpils win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -2
21.4%
Draw -2
19.4%
Tukums +2
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils -1
40.7%
Draw -1
22.6%
Tukums +1
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +1
84.9%
Draw +1
9.7%
Tukums -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BFC Daugavpils)
BFC Daugavpils +2
94.6%
Draw +2
4.0%
Tukums -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.79
0.71
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.41
0.82
0.64
0.18
0.18
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.56
1.00
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.56
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.50
0.43
0.57
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BFC Daugavpils
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.00
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
0.64
1.18
0.82
0.91
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tukums) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tukums
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.75
1.00
0.21
1.21
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
1.22
0.67
0.89
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.92
0.86
1.14
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (BFC Daugavpils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFC Daugavpils over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tukums over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (27)
€16m
RF (29)
€11m
AUD (25)
€6m
FL (21)
€5m
OU (27)
€3m
SN (24)
€3m
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
BD (21)
€3m
TUK (20)
€2m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (10)
€7m
RF (15)
€6m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (7)
€2m
OU (12)
€2m
GRO (10)
€1m
SN (8)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
TUK (7)
€1m
BD (7)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (5)
€3m
RF (4)
€2m
SN (6)
€1m
FL (4)
€1m
BD (6)
€1m
OU (4)
€1m
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
AUD (3)
€0m
TUK (3)
€0m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIG (12)
€6m
RF (10)
€3m
AUD (11)
€3m
FL (10)
€2m
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
TUK (10)
€1m
OU (11)
€1m
BD (8)
€1m
SN (10)
€1m
BFC Daugavpils and Tukums have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Latvia: Virsliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: Virsliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rīgas FS
Riga
FK Liepaja
Auda
Super Nova
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
Ogre United