This Romania: Liga II match between Bihor Oradea and ASA Targu Mures is finely balanced, with both teams coming off defeats in their last outings. Bihor Oradea suffered a 0-2 loss to Concordia, while ASA Targu Mures was defeated 0-2 by Cetatea Suceava.
The model predicts a home win for Bihor Oradea, with a 38% chance of success, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of an away win for ASA Targu Mures. The expected total number of goals is 3.1. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%.
Bihor Oradea has been scoring an average of 3 goals at home, conceding 2, while facing stronger opponents. ASA Targu Mures has scored 1.9 goals on average while away, conceding 1.2, against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.8%. Home win is the model's selection, with a 38% chance, while the away win percentage is 36% and the draw percentage is 26%.
In a stunning turn of events, ASA Targu Mures drew 1-1 with Bihor Oradea, extending their recent run of coming off a draw. The win extends Bihor Oradea's streak of consecutive draws to four. The pre-match favourite, Home win, did not come through as the model's selection, coming in with a 38% probability. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of Home win was not the only one to miss the mark, as the model also predicted Over 1.5 goals, which hit with an 82.8% probability.
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.43 | 2.07 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.65 | 1.42 | 1.92 | 1.31 | 1.38 | 1.54 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 5.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.10 | 2.20 | 0.93 | 1.53 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.48 | 1.17 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 3.14 | 0.86 | 4.33 | 0.33 | 2.25 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| ASA Targu Mures goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 12% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.63 | 1.13 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.85 | 0.58 | 1.08 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.47 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.74 | 0.48 | 0.83 | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 0.43 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.81 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.63 | 1.27 | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.00 | 0.43 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.8% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +10.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
Bihor Oradea| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 3-1 |
ASA Targu Mures| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 6-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |