Bihor Oradea are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 95 % chance of a home win and a 4 % chance of a draw, leaving only a 1 % chance for a Štěfánice victory. The prediction favours a 4-0 scoreline, the most likely result at 13.7 % probability, and the expected total is 4.5 goals, with a 27 % chance of six or more. Bihor’s home form is dominant, averaging five goals scored and none conceded against weaker opponents, while Štěfánice’s away record is poor, conceding two goals and scoring only half a goal against stronger sides. The model’s selections reflect this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals (99.9 %), Home +2 handicap (99.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (99.3 %), Home or Draw (99.1 %), Home +1 handicap (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Home over 0.5 goals (98.3 %), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3 %). Bihor’s recent draw and Štěfánice’s recent win add context but do not alter the dominant home advantage.
Bihor Oradea continued their unbeaten run, extending a string of wins and draws, while Ștefănești returned from a defeat. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Bihor secured a 4-0 victory. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 95%. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 3.5 goals at 99.9%, Home +2 handicap at 99.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Home or Draw at 99.1%, Home +1 handicap at 99.1%, Home over 0.5 goals at 98.3%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3%. The match confirmed the model’s predictions across the board.
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.27 | 1.13 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.25 | 1.75 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 1.82 | 1.91 | 2.57 | 1.86 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (1) | 7.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Ştefăneşti goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 13% | 5.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 14% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.54 | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.11 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 1.38 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (1) | 4.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 22% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.71 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Ştefăneşti| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 44% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 99.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 99.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 92.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 1.5 goals | 91.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 89.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home -1 handicap | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 83.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 83.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 82.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 2.5 goals | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 5.5 | 71.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home -2 handicap | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Bihor Oradea| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
Ştefăneşti| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 06/08/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 30/07/25 | A | 0-7 | |
| 07/08/24 | H | 1-5 | |
| 31/07/24 | H | 4-2 | |
| 20/07/24 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |