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Bilje vs Rudar Result & Analysis

Date: 09/09/2022
Time: 14:30
Final 4-3
Bilje
Bilje
Vs
27%
27%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Rudar is the clear favourite, with a 47% chance of triumph, while Bilje and a draw each sit at 27%. The model expects 2.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. Bilje, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded, whereas Rudar, on the road, averages 1.67 scored and only 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with a 78.2% probability. The match carries a 27% home win, 27% draw and 47% away win probability. The recent form narrative: Bilje has suffered two straight defeats, last losing 1-4 to Rudar, while Rudar comes off a win, having beaten Bilje 4-1.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Bilje, who had just suffered two straight defeats, turned the tables on Rudar, who had been buoyed by a recent win. The final score was 4-3, giving Bilje a home victory that defied expectations. The model had picked an away win with a 47% probability, but that call was wrong. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 78.2% chance, as the match produced seven goals. Bilje’s 4-3 triumph extended their recent form, while Rudar’s run stalled after the loss. The prediction model’s favourite missed, yet its other selection proved accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilje win✓ Hit
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rudar win✗ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BiljeBilje

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W25L21W42W04L21WH·TRI31/07A·FUŽ06/08H·BIS13/08A·BEL20/08H·DEK27/08A·DOB03/09
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.002.171.331.672.672.67
vs Stronger (2)3.001.002.000.004.002.00
vs Similar (4)1.502.751.002.502.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D11D01L40W20WA·BEL29/07H·ROG06/08A·DEK14/08H·ALU21/08A·DOB27/08H·BRI03/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.831.000.671.671.00
vs Stronger (3)1.000.671.000.67--
vs Similar (3)1.671.00--1.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.2%
Under 2.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.7%
0-2
8.0%
0-0
7.2%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Bilje goals ↓
Rudar goals →
01234
07.2%8.7%8.0%4.3%1.8%
16.0%13%9.4%5.1%2.1%
24.2%6.9%5.6%3.0%1.2%
31.7%2.7%2.2%1.2%0.5%
40.5%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bilje goals (down), columns = Rudar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Bilje is 0.17 points better than Rudar in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Bilje is 0.03 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Bilje is 0.07 goals worse than Rudar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D03L20W10W02L00DH·TRI31/07A·FUŽ06/08H·BIS13/08A·BEL20/08H·DEK27/08A·DOB03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.830.670.670.331.00
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (4)0.501.251.001.000.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W01L30W20WA·BEL29/07H·ROG06/08A·DEK14/08H·ALU21/08A·DOB27/08H·BRI03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.171.000.331.330.00
vs Stronger (3)1.000.331.000.33--
vs Similar (3)1.330.00--1.330.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %83% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BiljeBilje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W22D01L32W02L21WH·TRI31/07A·FUŽ06/08H·BIS13/08A·BEL20/08H·DEK27/08A·DOB03/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.330.671.002.331.67
vs Stronger (2)2.501.002.000.003.002.00
vs Similar (4)1.001.500.001.502.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Rudar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RudarRudar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L00D10W00DA·BEL29/07H·ROG06/08A·DEK14/08H·ALU21/08A·DOB27/08H·BRI03/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.170.670.000.330.331.00
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.33--
vs Similar (3)0.331.00--0.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rudar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bilje and Rudar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BIL wins
0
Draws
0
RUD wins

Head-to-head

Bilje vs Rudar · H/A from BIL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

BiljeBilje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22ADob Vs BIL1-2
27/08/22HBIL Vs Dekani0-4
20/08/22ABeltinci Vs BIL2-4
13/08/22HBIL Vs Bistrica2-1
06/08/22AFužinar Vs BIL5-2
31/07/22HBIL Vs Triglav2-0

RudarRudar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22HRUD Vs Brinje-Grosuplje2-0
27/08/22ADob Vs RUD0-4
21/08/22HRUD Vs Aluminij0-1
14/08/22ADekani Vs RUD1-1
06/08/22HRUD Vs Rogaška1-1
29/07/22ABeltinci Vs RUD2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bilje
Bilje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLW2.00
HomeWWL2.00
AwayLWW2.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%67%67%
AVG goals4.173.005.33
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %83%67%100%
Over 3.5 %50%33%67%
Scored2.001.332.67
Conceded2.171.672.67
BTTS67%33%100%
Clean Sheet17%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Rudar
Rudar
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.33
HomeDLW1.33
AwayLDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%33%33%
AVG goals2.171.672.67
Over 1.5 %83%67%100%
Over 2.5 %17%0%33%
Over 3.5 %17%0%33%
Scored1.331.001.67
Conceded0.830.671.00
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet33%33%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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