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Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga Prediction & Stats

Date: 31/10/2026
Time: 17:00
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Vs
68%
20%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birzebbuga
Birzebbuga
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Birkirkara’s recent form shows a team that is still finding its rhythm, having come off a defeat to Mosta, yet the model still rates a home win as the clear favourite, with a 72% chance versus a 10% chance for Birzebbuga and an 18% draw probability. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Birkirkara, a 12.2% probability. Birkirkara averages 1.54 goals scored and 0.77 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Birzebbuga, playing away, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include “Away under 3.5 goals” at 99.2%, “Under 7.5” at 98.5%, “Home +2 handicap” at 97.1%, “Under 6.5” at 96.0%, “Away under 2.5 goals” at 95.6%, “Home over 0.5 goals” at 90.5%, “Under 5.5” at 90.3%, and “Home or Draw” at 90.3%. These picks reflect the model’s confidence in a low-scoring, home-dominated affair.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Birkirkara win
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga win
11.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L22D10W01L00D00D11D40W10W01LA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.101.540.770.531.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.971.101.540.770.531.35
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W22D22D31W33D32W11D03L01L12LH·MEL28/02A·SWI08/03H·PIE14/03A·ST.04/04A·BAL12/04H·SIR19/04A·SWI23/04H·FLO14/08A·ZAB22/08H·SLI30/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.881.312.001.381.771.23
vs Stronger (3)0.332.000.502.500.001.00
vs Similar (18)1.891.332.221.221.561.44
vs Weaker (5)2.800.802.501.003.000.67
Clean sheet %19% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
9.5%
3-0
8.6%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.5%
4-0
4.8%
Birkirkara goals ↓
Birzebbuga goals →
01234
05.5%3.0%1.6%0.5%0.1%
19.5%9.5%3.6%1.0%0.2%
212%9.7%4.0%1.1%0.2%
38.6%7.2%3.0%0.8%0.2%
44.8%4.0%1.7%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birkirkara goals (down), columns = Birzebbuga goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Birkirkara is 0.23 points better than Birzebbuga in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Birkirkara is 0.11 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Birkirkara is 0.80 goals better than Birzebbuga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birkirkara or Draw
88.3%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Birkirkara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara or Birzebbuga
80.0%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Birkirkara + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Birzebbuga
31.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
12%
covers Draw + Birzebbuga
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5
Over
89.3%
Under
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5
Over
65.3%
Under
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 3.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5
Over
56.6%
Under
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Birkirkara, so a minus line means Birkirkara give that many goals of a start and Birzebbuga receive them. At -1, Birkirkara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birkirkara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -2
24.8%
Draw -2
20.7%
Birzebbuga +2
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -1
45.5%
Draw -1
22.7%
Birzebbuga +1
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +1
88.3%
Draw +1
7.9%
Birzebbuga -1
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +2
96.2%
Draw +2
2.9%
Birzebbuga -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00D00D10W20W00D01LA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.690.380.350.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.470.690.380.350.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W10W30W10W12L11D01L00D01LH·MEL28/02A·SWI08/03H·PIE14/03A·ST.04/04A·BAL12/04H·SIR19/04A·SWI23/04H·FLO14/08A·ZAB22/08H·SLI30/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.420.850.621.080.23
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (18)1.000.440.890.561.110.33
vs Weaker (5)1.400.201.500.501.330.00
Clean sheet %62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W01L00D00D01L20W10W00DA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.850.380.180.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.630.850.380.180.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L12L01L23L20W00D02L01L11DH·MEL28/02A·SWI08/03H·PIE14/03A·ST.04/04A·BAL12/04H·SIR19/04A·SWI23/04H·FLO14/08A·ZAB22/08H·SLI30/08← Challenge LeaguePremier League →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.920.881.150.770.691.00
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.501.500.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.890.891.330.670.441.11
vs Weaker (5)1.400.601.000.501.670.67
Clean sheet %35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Away under 3.5 goals99.0%-------
Under 7.598.7%-------
Under 6.596.3%-------
Home +2 handicap96.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals94.7%-------
Under 5.590.9%-------
Home over 0.5 goals89.3%-------
Home or Draw88.3%-------
Home +1 handicap88.3%-------
Over 1.581.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals81.3%-------
Under 4.580.4%-------
Home or Away80.0%-------
Away under 1.5 goals79.6%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Birkirkara and Birzebbuga have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
BIR wins
0
Draws
0
BIR wins

Head-to-head

Birkirkara vs Birzebbuga · H/A from BIR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AMosta Vs BIR1-0
22/08/26HBIR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-0
17/08/26HBIR Vs Gzira United4-0
30/04/26HBIR Vs Mosta1-1
24/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs BIR0-0
18/04/26AHibernians Vs BIR0-0
14/04/26ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR1-0
11/04/26HBIR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-0
14/03/26HBIR Vs Floriana2-2
08/03/26AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR3-0

BirzebbugaBirzebbuga

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HBIR Vs Sliema Wanderers1-2
22/08/26AZabbar St. Patrick Vs BIR1-0
14/08/26HBIR Vs Floriana0-3
23/04/26ASwieqi United Vs BIR1-1
19/04/26HBIR Vs Sirens3-2
12/04/26ABalzan FC Vs BIR3-3
04/04/26ASt. Andrews Vs BIR1-3
14/03/26HBIR Vs Pietà Hotspurs2-2
08/03/26ASwieqi United Vs BIR2-2
28/02/26HBIR Vs Melita2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.24
HomeDWDWW1.74
AwayLLDDL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%19%
AVG goals1.981.912.04
Over 1.5 %60%57%63%
Over 2.5 %32%22%41%
Over 3.5 %12%13%11%
Scored0.981.260.74
Conceded1.000.651.30
BTTS26%26%26%
Clean Sheet46%52%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Birzebbuga
Birzebbuga
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.81
HomeWDWLL1.92
AwayDWDDL1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals3.193.383.00
Over 1.5 %77%69%85%
Over 2.5 %65%69%62%
Over 3.5 %35%38%31%
Scored1.882.001.77
Conceded1.311.381.23
BTTS58%62%54%
Clean Sheet19%15%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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