Birkirkara are tipped to win, with a 56% chance of a home victory, 26% for a draw and 18% for Hibernians to come away with a win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.4% probability. Birkirkara’s home form shows they average 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Hibernians, playing away, average 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (94.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.6%) and Under 4.5 (88.3%). Birkirkara’s recent run of two wins and a 1-0 victory over Hamrun Spartans contrasts with Hibernians’ recent defeat and 0-1 loss to Marsaxlokk, setting the stage for a tight contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Birkirkara win
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernians win
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Birkirkara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.54
0.77
0.53
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.24
1.18
0.85
1.85
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
1.62
0.67
1.67
1.40
1.60
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.41
1.36
1.07
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.9%
Under 2.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
6.1%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.5%
Birkirkara goals ↓
Hibernians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.1%
3.4%
1.1%
0.2%
1
11%
13%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.5%
5.1%
2.4%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birkirkara goals (down), columns = Hibernians goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Birkirkara is 0.12 points worse than Hibernians in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Birkirkara is 0.50 goals worse than Hibernians in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Birkirkara is 0.41 goals better than Hibernians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birkirkara or Draw
79.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Birkirkara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara or Hibernians
72.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Birkirkara + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hibernians
47.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
27%
21%
covers Draw + Hibernians
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5
Over
80.1%
Under
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5
Over
48.0%
Under
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 3.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Birkirkara, so a minus line means Birkirkara give that many goals of a start and Hibernians receive them. At -1, Birkirkara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birkirkara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -2
12.1%
Draw -2
16.4%
Hibernians +2
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -1
28.5%
Draw -1
23.7%
Hibernians +1
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +1
79.4%
Draw +1
13.2%
Hibernians -1
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +2
92.6%
Draw +2
5.5%
Hibernians -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Birkirkara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.47
0.69
0.38
0.35
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.59
0.41
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.33
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.59
0.64
0.29
0.25
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.3%
Under 1.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
Under 2.5
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.4%
Under
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Birkirkara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.63
0.85
0.38
0.18
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.65
0.76
0.38
0.85
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.82
0.71
0.79
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.0%
Under 1.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernians over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Birkirkara's squad is €3m less valuable than Hibernians's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Birkirkara and Hibernians have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Birkirkara and Hibernians have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Birkirkara's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernians's (€1m vs €3m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →