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Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Vs
41%
31%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Birkirkara’s defensive record at home - 0.77 goals conceded per match - pairs with a modest 1.54 goals scored, while Marsaxlokk on the road averages 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded against similar opposition. The model projects a tight affair, favouring a home win at 45%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 24%. The expected total of 2.2 goals translates to a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with the most probable total being two goals. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.5%), Under 4.5 (92.3%) and Home +2 handicap (91.3%). Birkirkara enter the game after a defeat, while Marsaxlokk come off a two-game winning streak.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Birkirkara win
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk win
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L22D10W01L00D00D11D40W10W01LA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.101.540.770.531.35
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.971.101.540.770.531.35
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W13L21W10W32W11D12L11D10W21WH·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05A·BAL14/08H·HIB21/08A·VAL28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.101.571.071.121.12
vs Stronger (11)1.091.361.501.750.861.14
vs Similar (19)1.470.951.600.801.331.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.0%
Under 2.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
11.9%
0-1
9.1%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.1%
Birkirkara goals ↓
Marsaxlokk goals →
01234
012%9.1%5.1%1.7%0.4%
112%14%6.5%2.1%0.5%
28.4%8.3%4.1%1.3%0.3%
33.6%3.5%1.7%0.6%0.1%
41.1%1.1%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birkirkara goals (down), columns = Marsaxlokk goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Birkirkara is 0.58 points worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.68).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Birkirkara is 0.39 goals worse than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Birkirkara is 0.02 goals better than Marsaxlokk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.15).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birkirkara or Draw
72.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
28%
covers Birkirkara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara or Marsaxlokk
69.0%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
28%
covers Birkirkara + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marsaxlokk
58.5%
Avg Implied -
41%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Marsaxlokk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
Under
37.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
Under
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Birkirkara, so a minus line means Birkirkara give that many goals of a start and Marsaxlokk receive them. At -1, Birkirkara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birkirkara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -2
6.7%
Draw -2
12.5%
Marsaxlokk +2
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara -1
19.2%
Draw -1
22.3%
Marsaxlokk +1
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +1
72.5%
Draw +1
17.0%
Marsaxlokk -1
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Birkirkara)
Birkirkara +2
89.5%
Draw +2
7.6%
Marsaxlokk -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00D00D10W20W00D01LA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.690.380.350.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.500.470.690.380.350.53
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W12L00D10W21W10W10W10W10W20WH·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05A·BAL14/08H·HIB21/08A·VAL28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.930.430.690.62
vs Stronger (11)0.820.641.250.750.570.57
vs Similar (19)0.790.470.800.300.780.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W01L00D00D01L20W10W00DA·HAM08/03H·FLO14/03H·ZAB11/04A·SLI14/04A·HIB18/04A·TAR24/04H·MOS30/04H·GZI17/08H·HAM22/08A·MOS30/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.850.380.180.82
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.470.630.850.380.180.82
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsaxlokk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L21W00D11D01L02L01L00D01LH·HAM11/04H·FLO15/04H·GZI19/04H·VAL26/04H·NAX02/05H·HAM09/05A·FLO16/05A·BAL14/08H·HIB21/08A·VAL28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.570.640.640.440.50
vs Stronger (11)0.270.730.251.000.290.57
vs Similar (19)0.680.470.800.500.560.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsaxlokk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.2%-------
Under 5.597.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.3%-------
Under 4.592.2%-------
Home +2 handicap89.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals86.5%-------
Under 3.581.0%-------
Away +2 handicap80.8%-------
Away under 1.5 goals74.2%-------
Home or Draw72.5%-------
Home +1 handicap72.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals71.8%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Birkirkara's squad is €1m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Birkirkara's midfield is €1m less valuable than Marsaxlokk's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Birkirkara and Marsaxlokk have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
BIR wins
4
Draws
3
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk · H/A from BIR
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk0-1
11/01/26AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR2-1
28/09/25AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR0-0
27/04/25HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk1-1
08/03/25HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk1-1
29/08/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR0-2
09/03/24AMarsaxlokk Vs BIR0-0
04/11/23HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk0-2

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26AMosta Vs BIR1-0
22/08/26HBIR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-0
17/08/26HBIR Vs Gzira United4-0
30/04/26HBIR Vs Mosta1-1
24/04/26ATarxien Rainbows Vs BIR0-0
18/04/26AHibernians Vs BIR0-0
14/04/26ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR1-0
11/04/26HBIR Vs Zabbar St. Patrick1-0
14/03/26HBIR Vs Floriana2-2
08/03/26AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR3-0

MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26AValletta FC Vs MAR1-2
21/08/26HMAR Vs Hibernians1-0
14/08/26ABalzan FC Vs MAR1-1
16/05/26AFloriana Vs MAR2-1
09/05/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans1-1
02/05/26HMAR Vs Naxxar Lions3-2
26/04/26HMAR Vs Valletta FC1-0
19/04/26HMAR Vs Gzira United2-1
15/04/26HMAR Vs Floriana1-3
11/04/26HMAR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWL1.24
HomeDWDWW1.74
AwayLLDDL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%19%
AVG goals1.981.912.04
Over 1.5 %60%57%63%
Over 2.5 %32%22%41%
Over 3.5 %12%13%11%
Scored0.981.260.74
Conceded1.000.651.30
BTTS26%26%26%
Clean Sheet46%52%41%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.68
HomeWWWDW1.95
AwayLWLDW1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%57%41%
AVG goals2.422.482.38
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %18%19%17%
Scored1.381.431.34
Conceded1.041.051.03
BTTS58%67%52%
Clean Sheet30%24%34%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana410
75%
2.5
102+8
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.50.5
-
2Valletta FCValletta FC49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.51.0
-
3MostaMosta39
100%
3.0
51+4
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.3
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk37
67%
2.3
42+2
2.0
67%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.30.7
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara36
67%
2.0
51+4
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.70.3
-
6Balzan FCBalzan FC34
33%
1.3
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.3
-
7Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick34
33%
1.3
45-1
3.0
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.31.7
-
8HiberniansHibernians44
25%
1.0
34-1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2130.81.0
-
9Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers33
33%
1.0
25-3
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3220.71.7
-
10Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans31
0%
0.3
14-3
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1310.31.3
-
11BirzebbugaBirzebbuga30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1210.32.0
-
12Gzira UnitedGzira United40
0%
0.0
213-11
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.53.2
-
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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