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Birkirkara vs Mosta Result & Analysis

Date: 21/09/2025
Time: 17:15
Final 2-0
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Vs
50%
29%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Birkirkara win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mosta win✗ Miss
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D10W01L10W03L00D00D12L22DH·MAR27/04H·FLO30/04A·SLI04/05A·HAM10/05H·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·VAL16/08H·GZI23/08A·HIB13/09A·SLI16/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.031.111.001.001.09
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.071.031.111.001.001.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W04L02L01L03L14L13L10W02L22DA·ZAB29/03H·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.701.231.541.001.82
vs Stronger (12)0.751.830.252.251.001.62
vs Similar (18)1.331.611.671.221.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.5%
Under 2.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.9%
Under 3.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
13.0%
0-0
10.8%
2-0 ✓
10.5%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
Birkirkara goals ↓
Mosta goals →
01234
011%7.1%3.6%1.0%0.2%
113%14%5.3%1.5%0.3%
210%9.1%3.9%1.1%0.2%
35.2%4.5%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.9%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birkirkara goals (down), columns = Mosta goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Naxxar Lions
1.06
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Tarxien Rainbows
0.71
Birkirkara is 0.21 points better than Mosta in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 0.88).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Naxxar Lions
1.24
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Tarxien Rainbows
0.97
Birkirkara
0.91
Birkirkara is 0.15 goals worse than Mosta in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.06).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Naxxar Lions
1.58
Tarxien Rainbows
1.74
Mosta
1.76
Birkirkara is 0.63 goals better than Mosta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.76).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D00D00D00D01L00D00D10W12LH·MAR27/04H·FLO30/04A·SLI04/05A·HAM10/05H·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·VAL16/08H·GZI23/08A·HIB13/09A·SLI16/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.530.530.580.550.45
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.530.530.580.550.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L01L01L02L11D00D00D11DA·ZAB29/03H·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.670.310.690.470.65
vs Stronger (12)0.330.580.001.000.500.38
vs Similar (18)0.440.720.440.560.440.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W01L10W02L00D00D02L10WH·MAR27/04H·FLO30/04A·SLI04/05A·HAM10/05H·PET10/07A·PET17/07A·VAL16/08H·GZI23/08A·HIB13/09A·SLI16/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.580.420.450.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.500.580.420.450.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W02L00D00D02L12L02L10W02L11DA·ZAB29/03H·MAR04/04H·HAM12/04A·BIR19/04A·FLO27/04H·SLI30/04A·MAR17/08A·SLI22/08A·HAM13/09H·HIB17/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.030.920.850.531.18
vs Stronger (12)0.421.250.251.250.501.25
vs Similar (18)0.890.891.220.670.561.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
Birkirkara and Mosta have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Birkirkara and Mosta have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
Birkirkara and Mosta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
Birkirkara and Mosta have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
BIR wins
1
Draws
2
MOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Birkirkara vs Mosta · H/A from BIR
DateH/AGameScore
19/04/25HBIR Vs Mosta1-0
08/02/25HBIR Vs Mosta2-0
29/11/24HBIR Vs Mosta2-0
29/09/24AMosta Vs BIR0-1
24/02/24AMosta Vs BIR0-2
21/10/23HBIR Vs Mosta0-2
11/03/23AMosta Vs BIR1-1
29/10/22HBIR Vs Mosta1-2

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/09/25ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR2-2
13/09/25AHibernians Vs BIR2-1
23/08/25HBIR Vs Gzira United0-0
16/08/25AValletta FC Vs BIR0-0
17/07/25APetrocub Vs BIR3-0
10/07/25HBIR Vs Petrocub1-0
10/05/25AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR1-0
04/05/25ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR0-1
30/04/25HBIR Vs Floriana1-1
27/04/25HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk1-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/25HMOS Vs Hibernians2-2
13/09/25AHamrun Spartans Vs MOS2-0
22/08/25ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS0-1
17/08/25AMarsaxlokk Vs MOS3-1
30/04/25HMOS Vs Sliema Wanderers1-4
27/04/25AFloriana Vs MOS3-0
19/04/25ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-0
12/04/25HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans0-2
04/04/25HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk0-4
29/03/25AZabbar St. Patrick Vs MOS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLD1.54
HomeWDDWD1.54
AwayLLDLD1.55
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%39%41%
AVG goals2.122.142.09
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %28%18%41%
Over 3.5 %16%18%14%
Scored1.201.181.23
Conceded0.920.960.86
BTTS36%43%27%
Clean Sheet46%36%59%
Corners---
Cards---
Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLD1.24
HomeWLLLD1.55
AwayLLLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%45%29%
AVG goals2.502.412.57
Over 1.5 %70%64%75%
Over 2.5 %46%36%54%
Over 3.5 %28%32%25%
Scored1.001.090.93
Conceded1.501.321.64
BTTS40%32%46%
Clean Sheet26%36%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FlorianaFloriana3474
65%
2.2
5328+25
2.4
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.8
-
2Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans3466
56%
1.9
5522+33
2.3
74%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.60.6
-
3MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk3457
47%
1.7
4439+5
2.4
76%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.31.1
-
4Valletta FCValletta FC3454
41%
1.6
4126+15
2.0
62%
26%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.20.8
-
5Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers3248
38%
1.5
3736+1
2.3
72%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.1
-
6Gzira UnitedGzira United3243
38%
1.3
3843-5
2.5
72%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
7HiberniansHibernians3239
31%
1.2
4549-4
2.9
78%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.41.5
-
8BirkirkaraBirkirkara3235
25%
1.1
2936-7
2.0
62%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2110.91.1
-
9Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions3335
27%
1.1
4152-11
2.8
76%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Zabbar St. PatrickZabbar St. Patrick3433
18%
1.0
4245-3
2.6
79%
44%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.3
-
11MostaMosta3329
21%
0.9
3558-23
2.8
70%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.8
-
12Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows3424
12%
0.7
3359-26
2.7
76%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.7
-
Malta: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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