Birmingham hosts Bristol City in the Championship on August 22nd. The recent form of both teams is worth noting, with Birmingham unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 0-0 draw against Sheffield United. In contrast, Bristol City comes off a 0-2 defeat to Millwall.
Birmingham is the favourite to win, with a 55% probability of taking the three points. The model predicts a Home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely score being 1-0, although this is not the most likely total number of goals, which is 2.
At home, Birmingham scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.07, while Bristol City, away from home, scores 1.17 goals and concedes 1.17 against similar strength opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 79.5% probability and an 11% edge, Home or Draw with a 77.8% probability and no edge, and Home or Away with a 71.7% probability. The probabilities of a Home win, Draw, and Away win are 55%, 28%, and 17% respectively.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Birmingham, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ unbeaten streaks. The model had tipped a home win with a 53 % probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8 %, Under 6.5 at 98.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5 %, Under 5.5 at 96.1 %, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1 %. The game’s low-scoring nature matched the model’s most likely 2-goal total, confirming the overall low-goal predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Birmingham win✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Dafabet
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Draw✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.66
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.89
Dafabet
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Bristol City win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.40
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
Pinnacle
4.58
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.27
1.00
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.07
1.29
1.00
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.47
1.47
0.93
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.37
1.57
1.50
1.08
1.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.3%
@ 1.25-8.3%
Under 1.5
33.7%
@ 3.67+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.89
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.3%
@ 1.83-13.2%
Under 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.95+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.5%
@ 3.04-12.2%
Under 3.5
81.5%
@ 1.35+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.14
Betfair
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.0%
@ 1.74-11.5%
No
58.0%
@ 2.00+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.75
No
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.05
888Sport
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.7%@ 6.92+8.2%
1-1
13.2%@ 6.64+6.4%
0-0
12.0%@ 10.41+7.7%
2-0
11.7%@ 8.21+6.1%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.57+2.8%
0-1
7.0%@ 11.86+3.2%
3-0
5.7%@ 13.40+2.3%
1-2
4.5%@ 13.04+1.1%
Birmingham goals ↓
Bristol City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.0%
3.1%
0.8%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.5%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.8%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
5.7%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birmingham goals (down), columns = Bristol City goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Birmingham is 0.04 points better than Bristol City in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Birmingham is 0.04 goals worse than Bristol City in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Birmingham is 0.07 goals better than Bristol City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Birmingham is 4.5 percentage points better than Bristol City in terms of average possession (54% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Birmingham
For 5.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bristol City
For 4.5 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 19.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Birmingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.5
9.2
3.6
4.1
3.1
22.0
22.0
22.0
vs Stronger (2)
16.5
23.0
10.0
2.5
3.0
2.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
vs Similar (46)
10.0
10.7
9.4
3.7
4.2
3.2
21.8
21.7
21.9
vs Weaker (2)
9.5
17.0
2.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
19.0
22.0
16.0
% over line
54%
62%
46%
42%
50%
35%
50%
46%
54%
% under line
46%
38%
54%
58%
50%
65%
50%
54%
46%
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.9
3.5
4.3
21.1
19.5
22.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.7
6.0
4.0
23.3
25.0
22.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
9.5
9.9
3.8
3.4
4.2
20.9
19.4
22.6
vs Weaker (2)
16.5
17.0
16.0
5.0
3.0
7.0
22.5
16.0
29.0
% over line
54%
46%
62%
56%
46%
67%
46%
31%
62%
% under line
46%
54%
38%
44%
54%
33%
54%
69%
38%
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.2%
@ 1.58+3.7%
Under 9.5
37.8%
@ 2.24-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.26
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.7%
@ 1.79+4.8%
Under 3.5
43.3%
@ 1.94-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.5%
@ 1.77+0.5%
Under 21.5
47.5%
@ 1.92-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Under
Superbet
1.92
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birmingham or Draw✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 78.6% · @ 1.19
Edge
-0.9%
53%
29%
18%
covers Birmingham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Birmingham or Bristol City✗ Miss
71.7%
Avg Implied 74.7% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.0%
53%
29%
18%
covers Birmingham + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Draw or Bristol City✓ Hit
50.6%
Avg Implied 46.7% · @ 2.01
Edge
+3.9%
53%
29%
18%
covers Draw + Bristol City
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.09
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.02
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birmingham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.1%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Under
21.9%
@ 4.84+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.80
888Sport
4.80
Birmingham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.8%
@ 1.81-6.8%
Under
55.2%
@ 1.93+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Birmingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 3.57-6.6%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.26+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.67
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
888Sport
3.60
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Birmingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 7.89-5.0%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bristol City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
@ 1.47-2.2%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.53+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Under
10Bet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
888Sport
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Bristol City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 3.36-3.4%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.29+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Bristol City over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.32-3.0%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
888Sport
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Bristol City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 23.88-2.5%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Birmingham, so a minus line means Birmingham give that many goals of a start and Bristol City receive them. At -1, Birmingham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birmingham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birmingham)Actual: Bristol City
Birmingham -2
10.5%
@ 6.24-3.9%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 4.97-2.6%
Bristol City +2
74.1%
@ 1.33+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
6.05
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Birmingham)Actual: Bristol City
Birmingham -1
25.9%
@ 3.02-3.7%
Draw -1
23.5%
@ 3.54-1.8%
Bristol City +1
50.6%
@ 1.99+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.20
Bet365
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
2.04
Unibet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Handicap +1 (Birmingham)Actual: Birmingham
Birmingham +1
77.8%
@ 1.18+2.9%
Draw +1
14.1%
@ 5.69-1.4%
Bristol City -1
8.1%
@ 9.31-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Birmingham)Actual: Birmingham
Birmingham +2
91.9%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Draw +2
6.0%
@ 12.33-1.6%
Bristol City -2
2.1%
@ 28.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.63
0.79
0.50
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.74
0.64
0.71
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.36+0.1%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 2.98-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 2.68-2.4%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.43+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
1xBet
2.69
Under
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 6.68-3.0%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.08+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.4%
@ 1.75-5.9%
Under
52.6%
@ 1.99+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 4.67-6.3%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.15+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 11.62-5.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bristol City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.5%
@ 2.55+0.1%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.46-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Marathonbet
2.58
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Under
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bristol City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 9.36-2.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
Unibet
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Superbet
8.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Bristol City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 38.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.44
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Bristol City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bristol City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.87
0.80
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.63
0.93
0.79
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bristol City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.9%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.5%
1.35
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.5%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.8%
1.19
Betano
1.23
888Sport
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.8%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.3%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.32
-
-
-
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.7%
1.32
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.7%
1.25
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
-3.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Birmingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Gray33%
August Priske33%
P. Neumann17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bright Osayi-Samuel67%
P. Roberts33%
J. Solis33%
L. Vázquez17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
D. Gray0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Beadle0%
August Priske0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Roberts33%
Seung Ho Paik17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Carlos Vicente17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
D. Gray0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Seung Ho Paik17%
D. Gray17%
J. Stansfield17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Bristol City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Twine50%
Dominic Ballard40%
J. Knight20%
L. Tolaj20%
Lisav Naif Eissat20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Rio Cardines0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Randell33%
J. Knight20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
L. Tolaj0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rio Cardines75%
J. Wallace20%
L. Tolaj20%
C. Pring0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
S. Twine0%
George Tanner0%
S. Greenwood0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
L. Tolaj40%
S. Twine25%
S. Greenwood20%
C. Pring0%
J. Wallace0%
J. Williams0%
Rob Dickie0%
A. Randell0%
J. Knight0%
George Tanner0%
S. Tickle0%
Dominic Ballard0%
Yu Hirakawa0%
Lisav Naif Eissat0%
Rio Cardines0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Birmingham's squad is €28m more valuable than Bristol City's (€93m vs €66m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Birmingham's attack is €17m more valuable than Bristol City's (€46m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Birmingham's midfield is €6m less valuable than Bristol City's (€12m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Birmingham's defence is €16m more valuable than Bristol City's (€35m vs €18m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston