The match between Birmingham and Southampton sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. The probability split is 32% for a home victory, 27% for a draw, and 41% for a Southampton triumph. The average goal expectation sits at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% probability, reflecting the evenly matched offensive outputs.
Birmingham, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. Southampton, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, suggesting a potent attack that should find the net. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.0% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (96.1% with no edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7% with a 2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0% with a 2% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (91.4%). All figures are presented as percentages, with no repetition of any number.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Southampton, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw. Birmingham’s recent form note that they were coming off a draw, while Southampton also ended their last game in a 1-1 stalemate. The model had picked an away win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.1%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 93.6%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 91.9%. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, yet the overall result was a draw, not the predicted away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Birmingham win✗ Miss
31.7%
Avg Implied 37.0% · @ 2.54
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.57
Draw✓ Hit
26.6%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.40
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.59
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Southampton win✗ Miss
41.7%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.65
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.75
Dafabet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Betano
2.67
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.33
1.40
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.04
1.38
1.08
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.97
2.06
0.94
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.08
1.00
2.15
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.24+4.7%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 3.87-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.16
Superbet
4.15
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.77+3.3%
Under 2.5
43.4%
@ 2.03-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Superbet
2.07
SBO
2.07
Betano
2.05
Betfair
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.88+1.6%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.39-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Under
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.60+2.0%
No
39.6%
@ 2.23-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.60
No
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.25
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.4%@ 6.26+5.2%
1-2
9.0%@ 9.10+4.0%
2-1
7.7%@ 8.97+2.7%
0-1
7.2%@ 9.35+2.3%
0-2
6.6%@ 13.47+3.2%
0-0
6.4%@ 11.30+2.4%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.30+2.1%
1-0
6.0%@ 9.15+1.0%
Birmingham goals ↓
Southampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
7.2%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.0%
12%
9.0%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.1%
3.2%
1.3%
3
2.2%
3.5%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.8%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birmingham goals (down), columns = Southampton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Birmingham is 0.32 points worse than Southampton in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Birmingham is 0.49 goals worse than Southampton in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Birmingham is 0.03 goals worse than Southampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Birmingham is 2.6 percentage points worse than Southampton in terms of average possession (54% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Birmingham
For 5.9 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
For 5.2 · Against 6.8 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Birmingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.4
9.2
3.6
4.2
3.1
21.9
21.9
21.8
vs Stronger (3)
14.3
16.5
10.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
27.0
25.5
30.0
vs Similar (46)
10.2
10.9
9.5
3.8
4.4
3.2
21.7
21.5
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
2.0
-
2.0
1.0
-
1.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
67%
46%
42%
50%
35%
48%
42%
54%
% under line
44%
33%
54%
58%
50%
65%
52%
58%
46%
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.2
11.2
3.7
3.8
3.5
22.0
22.8
21.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
13.0
13.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (40)
11.4
11.3
11.4
3.9
4.0
3.8
22.3
23.2
21.3
vs Weaker (8)
9.9
10.0
9.8
2.9
3.3
2.6
21.0
20.7
21.2
% over line
69%
72%
67%
52%
48%
56%
47%
48%
46%
% under line
31%
28%
33%
48%
52%
44%
53%
52%
54%
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
64.6%
@ 1.58+5.9%
Under 9.5
35.4%
@ 2.24-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Betano
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.26
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.46-6.5%
Under 3.5
43.4%
@ 2.50+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.51
Unibet
2.35
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.8%
@ 1.75-0.7%
Under 21.5
49.2%
@ 1.86+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Under
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birmingham or Draw✓ Hit
60.2%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.44
Edge
-4.6%
32%
27%
42%
covers Birmingham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Birmingham or Southampton✗ Miss
74.0%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
+1.3%
32%
27%
42%
covers Birmingham + Southampton
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Draw or Southampton✓ Hit
65.7%
Avg Implied 62.4% · @ 1.50
Edge
+3.3%
32%
27%
42%
covers Draw + Southampton
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
SBO
1.51
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birmingham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.4%
@ 1.24+2.3%
Under
22.6%
@ 3.73-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Unibet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Birmingham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.8%
@ 2.21+1.5%
Under
56.2%
@ 1.62-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Birmingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 4.89-0.2%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.15+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Birmingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 10.80-2.4%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Southampton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.1%
@ 1.25+5.9%
Under
19.9%
@ 3.60-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.84
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Southampton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 2.27+6.9%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.58-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Unibet
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Under
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Southampton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.0%
@ 5.10+3.8%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.13-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.30
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Southampton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 11.59-0.1%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Birmingham, so a minus line means Birmingham give that many goals of a start and Southampton receive them. At -1, Birmingham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birmingham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birmingham)Actual: Southampton
Birmingham -2
6.3%
@ 10.07-2.5%
Draw -2
10.4%
@ 6.67-3.0%
Southampton +2
83.3%
@ 1.15+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Birmingham)Actual: Southampton
Birmingham -1
16.7%
@ 4.75-2.1%
Draw -1
17.6%
@ 4.14-4.0%
Southampton +1
65.7%
@ 1.50+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.55
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
Unibet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Handicap +1 (Birmingham)Actual: Birmingham
Birmingham +1
60.2%
@ 1.44-2.1%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.36-1.4%
Southampton -1
20.6%
@ 5.24+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
Away
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
4.90
Handicap +2 (Birmingham)Actual: Birmingham
Birmingham +2
79.4%
@ 1.12-0.0%
Draw +2
12.2%
@ 7.10-0.3%
Southampton -2
8.4%
@ 11.02+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.85
0.54
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
1.00
0.38
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.58
1.00
0.46
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.34+2.9%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 3.08-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.58+2.8%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.46-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.67
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.24-1.4%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.1%
@ 1.98-2.9%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.76+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
1xBet
1.73
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 5.85-3.8%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.10+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 15.38-4.3%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Southampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
51.8%
@ 2.02+5.6%
Under
48.2%
@ 1.73-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Southampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 6.03+0.3%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.09-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.15
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Southampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 16.00-2.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.46
0.54
0.54
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.50
1.06
0.56
1.57
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
0.42
1.15
0.54
1.64
0.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.4%
@ 1.20+2.9%
Under 0.5
19.6%
@ 4.14-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.96+3.5%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 1.78-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 3.94-3.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.9%
@ 1.67-5.4%
Under
50.1%
@ 2.07+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.27-6.5%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.18+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 10.75-5.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Southampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.5%
@ 1.70+3.0%
Under
42.5%
@ 2.03-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Southampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.3%
@ 4.43+2.5%
Under
76.7%
@ 1.17-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Southampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 11.25-2.5%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
79.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.33
-
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.7%
1.33
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Birmingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Gray33%
August Priske33%
P. Neumann17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bright Osayi-Samuel67%
P. Roberts33%
J. Solis33%
L. Vázquez17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
D. Gray0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Beadle0%
August Priske0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Roberts33%
Seung Ho Paik17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Carlos Vicente17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
D. Gray0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Seung Ho Paik17%
D. Gray17%
J. Stansfield17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Southampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cyle Larin67%
Léo Scienza33%
Romeo Akachukwu33%
Ryan Manning20%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Finn Azaz17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Manning40%
J. Bree33%
Flynn Downes33%
N. Wood-Gordon25%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Cyle Larin17%
Léo Scienza17%
Cameron Bragg17%
J. Stephens0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Azaz50%
Ryan Manning40%
Léo Scienza33%
Flynn Downes17%
Cameron Bragg17%
Cyle Larin0%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
D. Mubama0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cyle Larin83%
Kuryu Matsuki17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
Ryan Manning0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
Léo Scienza0%
D. Mubama0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Birmingham's squad is €112m less valuable than Southampton's (€93m vs €205m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Birmingham's attack is €27m less valuable than Southampton's (€46m vs €72m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Birmingham's midfield is €40m less valuable than Southampton's (€12m vs €53m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Birmingham's defence is €45m less valuable than Southampton's (€35m vs €79m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston