The clash between Birmingham and Wolves is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 34% for a Birmingham victory, 26% for a draw and 39% for Wolves to lift the trophy. The expected total is 3.0 goals, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 23% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% probability. Birmingham, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Wolves, on the road against a comparable opponent, average 0.9 scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (96.6%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.9% with a 2% edge) and Under 5.5 (91.5%). Birmingham’s recent draw and Wolves’ recent defeat add to the uncertainty, making the match a genuine contest.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Birmingham win
34.0%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.92
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.07
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.17
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Wolves win
39.7%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.40
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
1xBet
2.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Birmingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.27
1.33
1.40
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.04
1.38
1.08
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.43
1.87
1.20
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.50
1.14
1.43
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.69
1.83
1.17
0.90
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
3.00
0.25
4.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
@ 1.34+12.0%
Under 1.5
18.3%
@ 3.09-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Unibet
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
@ 2.08+13.2%
Under 2.5
41.5%
@ 1.72-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.74
Unibet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
@ 3.64+10.5%
Under 3.5
63.9%
@ 1.25-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.73
Betano
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
@ 1.80+10.4%
No
38.0%
@ 1.91-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.79
No
Unibet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 5.86+4.5%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.98+3.8%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.94+3.5%
0-1
6.5%@ 7.19+0.3%
2-2
6.4%@ 13.47+3.0%
0-2
6.0%@ 10.71+1.8%
0-0
5.9%@ 8.34+0.5%
1-0
5.9%@ 8.03+0.3%
Birmingham goals ↓
Wolves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.5%
6.0%
3.2%
1.3%
1
5.9%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1.3%
3
2.4%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birmingham goals (down), columns = Wolves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Birmingham is 0.51 points worse than Wolves in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Birmingham is 0.57 goals worse than Wolves in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Birmingham is 0.29 goals worse than Wolves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Birmingham
For 5.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wolves
For 5.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.0 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Birmingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.2
9.2
3.6
4.3
3.0
21.7
21.8
21.6
vs Stronger (3)
14.3
16.5
10.0
2.7
3.0
2.0
27.0
25.5
30.0
vs Similar (46)
10.2
10.8
9.5
3.7
4.4
3.1
21.5
21.5
21.5
vs Weaker (1)
2.0
-
2.0
1.0
-
1.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
64%
48%
42%
52%
32%
46%
40%
52%
% under line
44%
36%
52%
58%
48%
68%
54%
60%
48%
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.7
10.3
3.9
3.9
3.9
23.4
23.3
23.4
vs Stronger (18)
10.0
8.6
11.8
4.1
4.6
3.5
23.6
22.6
24.8
vs Similar (28)
8.9
8.3
9.5
3.9
3.6
4.2
24.0
24.5
23.4
vs Weaker (4)
10.2
11.5
9.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
18.2
18.5
18.0
% over line
56%
48%
65%
56%
52%
61%
62%
67%
57%
% under line
44%
52%
35%
44%
48%
39%
38%
33%
43%
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.8%
@ 1.81+8.7%
Under 9.5
40.2%
@ 1.89-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.71
Under
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.7%
@ 1.83+2.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
@ 1.83-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.5%
Under 21.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birmingham or Draw
73.7%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.53
Edge
+12.6%
34%
26%
40%
covers Birmingham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Birmingham or Wolves
74.4%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.32
Edge
+3.4%
34%
26%
40%
covers Birmingham + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Wolves
52.0%
Avg Implied 68.0% · @ 1.38
Edge
-16.0%
34%
26%
40%
covers Draw + Wolves
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
1xBet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birmingham over/under 0.5
Over
82.7%
@ 1.36+14.5%
Under
17.3%
@ 2.91-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Birmingham over/under 1.5
Over
52.3%
@ 2.75+18.5%
Under
47.7%
@ 1.40-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Marathonbet
2.82
BetVictor
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Birmingham over/under 2.5
Over
25.7%
@ 6.98+12.4%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.07-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.10
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Birmingham over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
@ 16.00+4.2%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.01-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Wolves over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
@ 1.28-0.7%
Under
28.5%
@ 3.33+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Wolves over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
@ 2.40-3.1%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.52+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.41
BetVictor
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Wolves over/under 2.5
Over
13.2%
@ 5.59-3.3%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Wolves over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
@ 13.50-3.2%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Birmingham, so a minus line means Birmingham give that many goals of a start and Wolves receive them. At -1, Birmingham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birmingham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birmingham)
Birmingham -2
11.8%
@ 15.00+5.7%
Draw -2
14.9%
@ 8.12+3.7%
Wolves +2
73.3%
@ 1.10-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (Birmingham)
Birmingham -1
26.7%
@ 6.04+11.9%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 4.44+1.1%
Wolves +1
52.0%
@ 1.38-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Away
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Handicap +1 (Birmingham)
Birmingham +1
73.7%
@ 1.53+15.0%
Draw +1
14.9%
@ 3.96-7.7%
Wolves -1
11.4%
@ 4.80-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.90
Away
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (Birmingham)
Birmingham +2
88.6%
@ 1.14+10.5%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 6.52-6.0%
Wolves -2
3.7%
@ 10.72-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.60
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Birmingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.62
0.85
0.62
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.87
0.67
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.57
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.94
1.17
0.83
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
3.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.42+10.3%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 2.68-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.81
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
@ 3.00+10.1%
Under 1.5
58.9%
@ 1.35-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 7.82+4.6%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.06-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Under
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.0%
@ 2.26+9.8%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.58-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Birmingham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
@ 7.48+3.6%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.06-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Birmingham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wolves over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.4%
@ 2.09+7.0%
Under
48.6%
@ 1.67-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Unibet
2.08
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Wolves over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
@ 6.56+1.8%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.08-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Wolves over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 12.50-5.8%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Birmingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.53
0.67
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.42
0.54
0.46
0.46
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Wolves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wolves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
0.60
1.14
0.86
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Birmingham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.3%
@ 1.26+9.6%
Under 0.5
16.7%
@ 3.53-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.60
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.8%
@ 2.22+9.8%
Under 1.5
48.2%
@ 1.61-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.3%
@ 4.96+6.5%
Under 2.5
74.7%
@ 1.14-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birmingham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.3%
@ 1.91+6.7%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.80-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.76
Birmingham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.7%
@ 5.58+5.1%
Under
78.3%
@ 1.11-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Birmingham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
@ 11.00-2.8%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Wolves over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.9%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Under
41.1%
@ 1.97-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
Wolves over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
@ 4.72+1.8%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.15-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Wolves over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.6%
@ 10.00-4.7%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8%
Under 5.5
91.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-1.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
89.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-4.2%
Home +2 handicap
88.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+10.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
-1.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-3.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
-4.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.3%
1.26
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+9.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
82.7%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
+14.5%
Over 1.5
81.7%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
+12.0%
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.4%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
-6.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
-
-1.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-5.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
+10.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.14
Betano
1.19
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-6.5%
Home or Away
74.4%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+3.4%
Home under 2.5 goals
74.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Unibet
1.07
-12.4%
Home or Draw
73.7%
1.53
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
+12.6%
Home +1 handicap
73.7%
1.53
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
+15.0%
Away +2 handicap
73.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
-9.4%
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.7%
1.48
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Unibet
1.43
-
-
+9.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.28
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
-0.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Birmingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Gray33%
August Priske33%
P. Neumann17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bright Osayi-Samuel67%
P. Roberts33%
J. Solis33%
L. Vázquez17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Seung Ho Paik0%
D. Gray0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Beadle0%
August Priske0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Roberts33%
Seung Ho Paik17%
Alex Cochrane17%
Carlos Vicente17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
D. Gray0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
J. Stansfield0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Seung Ho Paik17%
D. Gray17%
J. Stansfield17%
August Priske17%
L. Vázquez0%
Bright Osayi-Samuel0%
P. Neumann0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
P. Roberts0%
Alex Cochrane0%
Ethan Laird0%
C. Klarer0%
Carlos Vicente0%
J. Solis0%
J. Beadle0%
Wolves
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
R. Jiménez33%
M. Munetsi33%
Adam Armstrong33%
Fer López33%
Jordan James25%
André20%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
M. Mane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Traoré33%
M. Mane33%
Jordan James25%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
R. Jiménez0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Fer López0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommy Doyle33%
Fer López33%
André20%
R. Jiménez17%
Rodrigo Gomes17%
José Sá0%
M. Munetsi0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
Hugo Bueno0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
M. Mane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Mane50%
Fer López33%
R. Jiménez17%
M. Munetsi17%
José Sá0%
Adam Armstrong0%
Toti Gomes0%
Tommy Doyle0%
B. Traoré0%
T. Chirewa0%
David Møller Wolfe0%
André0%
Hugo Bueno0%
Rodrigo Gomes0%
J. Tchatchoua0%
N. Djiga0%
Jordan James0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Birmingham's squad is €180m less valuable than Wolves's (€93m vs €273m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Birmingham's attack is €33m less valuable than Wolves's (€46m vs €79m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Birmingham's midfield is €66m less valuable than Wolves's (€12m vs €79m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Birmingham's defence is €81m less valuable than Wolves's (€35m vs €116m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston