Birzebbuga’s recent home form has been bleak, scoring no goals in their last five matches and conceding an average of three, while Hamrun Spartans have struggled away, winning only one of their last five and conceding an average of one. The Pythia model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 65 % probability to Hamrun Spartans triumphing. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, with a 10.4 % probability, reflecting the home side’s defensive frailty and the visitors’ offensive edge.
Home win probability stands at 14 %, draw at 21 %, and away win at 65 %. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4 %), Under 6.5 (95.7 %), Away +2 handicap (95.1 %), Home under 2.5 goals (92.9 %), Under 5.5 (89.8 %), Away over 0.5 goals (89.1 %), and Draw or Away (86.1 %). Each selection carries its own probability, with no overlap in outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Birzebbuga win
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans win
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Birzebbuga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.88
1.31
2.00
1.38
1.77
1.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.33
2.22
1.22
1.56
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.80
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
19% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.76
0.76
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.75
0.88
2.25
0.50
1.25
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
1.00
1.50
0.88
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.1%
Under 2.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.7%
No
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.9%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.8%
0-1
9.0%
0-3
8.0%
1-3
7.2%
0-0
5.4%
0-4
4.4%
Birzebbuga goals ↓
Hamrun Spartans goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
9.0%
11%
8.0%
4.4%
1
3.1%
9.8%
9.8%
7.2%
4.0%
2
1.8%
4.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.8%
3
0.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Birzebbuga goals (down), columns = Hamrun Spartans goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Floriana
2.18
Hamrun Spartans
1.94
Marsaxlokk
1.68
Valletta FC
1.59
Sliema Wanderers
1.50
Gzira United
1.34
Balzan FC
1.29
Hibernians
1.22
Birkirkara
1.09
Zabbar St. Patrick
0.97
Mosta
0.88
Birzebbuga
0.87
Birzebbuga is 1.07 points worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of average points per game (0.87 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
1.62
Floriana
1.56
Hibernians
1.41
Marsaxlokk
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.24
Valletta FC
1.21
Balzan FC
1.19
Gzira United
1.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.16
Mosta
1.06
Birkirkara
0.91
Birzebbuga
0.80
Birzebbuga is 0.82 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.65
Valletta FC
0.76
Floriana
0.82
Birkirkara
1.12
Sliema Wanderers
1.12
Marsaxlokk
1.15
Balzan FC
1.29
Zabbar St. Patrick
1.32
Gzira United
1.34
Hibernians
1.53
Mosta
1.76
Birzebbuga
1.93
Birzebbuga is 1.28 goals worse than Hamrun Spartans in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 0.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Birzebbuga or Draw
33.7%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Birzebbuga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga or Hamrun Spartans
79.4%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Birzebbuga + Hamrun Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hamrun Spartans
86.9%
Avg Implied -
13%
21%
66%
covers Draw + Hamrun Spartans
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 3.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Birzebbuga, so a minus line means Birzebbuga give that many goals of a start and Hamrun Spartans receive them. At -1, Birzebbuga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Birzebbuga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Birzebbuga)
Birzebbuga -2
1.1%
Draw -2
3.3%
Hamrun Spartans +2
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Birzebbuga)
Birzebbuga -1
4.4%
Draw -1
8.7%
Hamrun Spartans +1
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Birzebbuga)
Birzebbuga +1
33.7%
Draw +1
22.6%
Hamrun Spartans -1
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Birzebbuga)
Birzebbuga +2
56.3%
Draw +2
20.2%
Hamrun Spartans -2
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Birzebbuga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.42
0.85
0.62
1.08
0.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
0.44
0.89
0.56
1.11
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
1.50
0.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.65
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.75
0.38
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.8%
Under 1.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.4%
Under 2.5
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Birzebbuga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.88
1.15
0.77
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.89
1.33
0.67
0.44
1.11
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
1.00
0.50
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamrun Spartans) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamrun Spartans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.12
0.47
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.50
1.62
0.25
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.46
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Birzebbuga) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.9%
Under 1.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Birzebbuga over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birzebbuga over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.2%
Under
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamrun Spartans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hamrun Spartans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Semir Smajlagić20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ante Ćorić17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ederson40%
Joseph Mbong40%
Vincenzo Polito40%
Matias Garcia25%
Emerson20%
Mouad El Fanis20%
Ognjen Bjeličić17%
Henry Bonello17%
Jovan Čađenović17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jovan Čađenović17%
Rafael Compri17%
N'Dri Koffi17%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Ederson0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Semir Smajlagić0%
Emerson0%
Matias Garcia0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Sven Xerri0%
Serigne Saliou Thioune0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N'Dri Koffi50%
Matias Garcia25%
Ederson20%
Semir Smajlagić20%
Serigne Saliou Thioune20%
Ante Ćorić0%
Stijn Meijer0%
Ognjen Bjeličić0%
Henry Bonello0%
Joseph Mbong0%
Jovan Čađenović0%
Domantas Šimkus0%
Emerson0%
Ryan Camenzuli0%
Vincenzo Polito0%
Rafael Compri0%
Sven Xerri0%
Mouad El Fanis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
ZSP (24)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BIR (14)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
Birzebbuga's squad is €2m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
Birzebbuga and Hamrun Spartans have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
ZSP (6)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
Birzebbuga's midfield is €1m less valuable than Hamrun Spartans's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
ZSP (12)
€2m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
Birzebbuga and Hamrun Spartans have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Malta: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →
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Floriana
Valletta FC
Mosta
Marsaxlokk
Birkirkara
Balzan FC
Zabbar St. Patrick
Hibernians
Sliema Wanderers
Gzira United