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Bistrica vs Nafta Result & Analysis

Date: 22/04/2023
Time: 14:30
Final 1-0
Bistrica
Bistrica
Vs
38%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bistrica win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D12L02L01L22D40W04L11D01LH·DEK12/11A·DOB19/11H·BIL27/11A·PRI04/03H·KRK12/03A·KRŠ18/03H·ILI25/03A·ROG01/04H·ALU10/04A·BRI15/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.041.321.171.080.921.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.961.301.091.090.831.50
vs Weaker (2)2.001.502.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %16% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L12L42W02L01L11D02L42W01L11DH·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03H·BRI24/03H·RUD31/03A·TRI07/04H·FUŽ14/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.721.521.541.541.921.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.431.790.861.862.001.71
vs Weaker (11)2.091.182.331.171.801.20
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-0 ✓
8.4%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
7.9%
0-1
7.7%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
Bistrica goals ↓
Nafta goals →
01234
08.2%7.7%5.7%2.5%0.8%
18.4%14%7.9%3.4%1.1%
26.6%8.5%5.5%2.3%0.8%
33.1%3.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bistrica goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Bistrica is 0.13 points worse than Nafta in terms of average points per game (1.23 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Bistrica is 0.37 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Bistrica is 0.10 goals better than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W02L00D22D20W03L00D01LH·DEK12/11A·DOB19/11H·BIL27/11A·PRI04/03H·KRK12/03A·KRŠ18/03H·ILI25/03A·ROG01/04H·ALU10/04A·BRI15/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.680.500.330.541.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.430.650.450.360.420.92
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %52% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D11D00D00D11D02L21W00D10WH·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03H·BRI24/03H·RUD31/03A·TRI07/04H·FUŽ14/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.840.720.770.770.920.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.640.860.430.860.860.86
vs Weaker (11)1.090.551.170.671.000.40
Clean sheet %52% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L02L00D01L00D20W01L11D00DH·DEK12/11A·DOB19/11H·BIL27/11A·PRI04/03H·KRK12/03A·KRŠ18/03H·ILI25/03A·ROG01/04H·ALU10/04A·BRI15/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.640.670.750.380.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.520.650.640.730.420.58
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.001.000.000.00
Clean sheet %44% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L31W02L01L00D00D21W01L01LH·PRI13/11A·KRK19/11H·KRŠ25/11A·ILI02/03H·ROG11/03A·ALU17/03H·BRI24/03H·RUD31/03A·TRI07/04H·FUŽ14/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.800.770.771.000.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.790.930.431.001.140.86
vs Weaker (11)1.000.641.170.500.800.80
Clean sheet %44% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Bistrica's squad is €1m less valuable than Nafta's (€1m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Bistrica and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Bistrica and Nafta have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Bistrica and Nafta have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BIS wins
0
Draws
0
NAF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bistrica vs Nafta · H/A from BIS
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/22ANafta Vs BIS0-2

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs BIS1-0
10/04/23HBIS Vs Aluminij1-1
01/04/23ARogaška Vs BIS4-0
25/03/23HBIS Vs Ilirija4-0
18/03/23AKrško Vs BIS2-2
12/03/23HBIS Vs Krka0-1
04/03/23APrimorje Vs BIS2-0
27/11/22HBIS Vs Bilje1-2
19/11/22ADob Vs BIS1-1
12/11/22HBIS Vs Dekani1-1

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/23HNAF Vs Fužinar1-1
07/04/23ATriglav Vs NAF1-0
31/03/23HNAF Vs Rudar4-2
24/03/23HNAF Vs Brinje-Grosuplje0-2
17/03/23AAluminij Vs NAF1-1
11/03/23HNAF Vs Rogaška0-1
02/03/23AIlirija Vs NAF2-0
25/11/22HNAF Vs Krško4-2
19/11/22AKrka Vs NAF2-1
13/11/22HNAF Vs Primorje2-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLDL1.04
HomeDLLWD1.17
AwayDLDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%25%23%
AVG goals2.362.252.46
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %16%8%23%
Scored1.041.170.92
Conceded1.321.081.54
BTTS60%67%54%
Clean Sheet16%17%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLD1.32
HomeWLLWD1.23
AwayWLLDL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%31%42%
AVG goals3.243.083.42
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %60%46%75%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.721.541.92
Conceded1.521.541.50
BTTS60%54%67%
Clean Sheet20%23%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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