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BKMA II vs Ararat II Result & Analysis

Date: 30/10/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 3-1
BKMA II
BKMA II
Vs
64%
20%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

BKMA II win✓ Hit
64.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II win✗ Miss
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

BKMA IIBKMA II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W10W41W31W51W01L30W22D32W32WA·ARA23/05A·ONO15/08H·MIK26/08A·LER31/08H·NIK17/09A·SHI23/09H·AND27/09A·SYU02/10H·ALA22/10A·ARA26/10
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.400.832.430.862.380.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.500.751.000.502.001.00
vs Weaker (26)2.540.852.670.922.430.79
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L01L01L50W43W11D21W31W03L12LH·SHI07/08H·AND14/08A·SYU21/08H·ALA26/08A·ARA30/08H·NOA22/09A·BAN26/09H·PYU30/09A·GAN20/10H·ONO25/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.701.531.731.331.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)1.071.861.671.500.622.12
vs Weaker (16)1.751.561.441.892.141.14
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.2%
Under 2.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.7%
Under 3.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.4%
No
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.8%
2-0
8.4%
3-1 ✓
7.6%
3-0
6.7%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
4.6%
BKMA II goals ↓
Ararat II goals →
01234
03.8%2.6%1.9%0.7%0.2%
16.3%8.8%4.6%1.7%0.5%
28.4%9.6%5.4%2.1%0.6%
36.7%7.6%4.3%1.6%0.5%
44.0%4.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA II goals (down), columns = Ararat II goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Gandzasar
2.64
BKMA II
2.25
Syunik
2.22
Lernayin Artsakh
2.07
Banants II
1.50
Andranik
1.46
Noah II
1.39
Ararat-Armenia II
1.39
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.18
Ararat II
1.14
Pyunik II
1.07
Mika
0.61
Onor
0.59
Nikarm
0.43
BKMA II is 1.11 points better than Ararat II in terms of average points per game (2.25 vs 1.14).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.89
Gandzasar
2.46
Lernayin Artsakh
2.21
Syunik
2.19
Noah II
1.89
Ararat II
1.86
Banants II
1.82
Pyunik II
1.79
Ararat-Armenia II
1.71
Alashkert II
1.64
Shirak II
1.46
Andranik
1.32
Nikarm
0.96
Onor
0.85
Mika
0.75
BKMA II is 1.04 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals scored per game (2.89 vs 1.86).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Gandzasar
0.61
Syunik
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.96
BKMA II
1.11
Banants II
1.21
Noah II
1.36
Andranik
1.46
Ararat-Armenia II
1.46
Ararat II
1.68
Alashkert II
1.75
Shirak II
1.79
Pyunik II
2.04
Mika
2.14
Onor
3.04
Nikarm
4.36
BKMA II is 0.57 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.68).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BKMA IIBKMA II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D10W00D41W11D10W21W11D31WA·MIK15/05H·WES19/05A·ARA23/05A·ONO15/08H·MIK26/08A·LER31/08H·AND27/09A·SYU02/10H·ALA22/10A·ARA26/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.571.070.531.200.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.750.751.000.500.501.00
vs Weaker (26)1.190.541.080.541.310.54
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D01L30W22D11D00D20W02L11DH·SHI07/08H·AND14/08A·SYU21/08H·ALA26/08A·ARA30/08H·NOA22/09A·BAN26/09H·PYU30/09A·GAN20/10H·ONO25/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.860.570.560.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.470.800.710.430.251.12
vs Weaker (15)0.930.731.000.710.880.75
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BKMA IIBKMA II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D30W10W00D20W20W01L21W01LA·MIK15/05H·WES19/05A·ARA23/05A·ONO15/08H·MIK26/08A·LER31/08H·AND27/09A·SYU02/10H·ALA22/10A·ARA26/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.300.401.270.601.330.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.750.000.000.001.500.00
vs Weaker (26)1.380.461.460.691.310.23
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ararat IIArarat II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L00D20W21W00D21W11D01L01LH·SHI07/08H·AND14/08A·SYU21/08H·ALA26/08A·ARA30/08H·NOA22/09A·BAN26/09H·PYU30/09A·GAN20/10H·ONO25/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.141.070.880.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.931.000.860.381.00
vs Weaker (15)1.330.731.291.291.380.25
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BI wins
0
Draws
1
AI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BKMA II vs Ararat II · H/A from BI
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/23AArarat II Vs BI0-4
17/03/23HBI Vs Ararat II1-0
02/10/22AArarat II Vs BI2-1

BKMA IIBKMA II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/23AArarat-Armenia II Vs BI2-3
22/10/23HBI Vs Alashkert II3-2
02/10/23ASyunik Vs BI2-2
27/09/23HBI Vs Andranik3-0
23/09/23AShirak II Vs BI1-0
17/09/23HBI Vs Nikarm5-1
31/08/23ALernayin Artsakh Vs BI1-3
26/08/23HBI Vs Mika4-1
15/08/23AOnor Vs BI0-1
23/05/23AArarat II Vs BI0-4

Ararat IIArarat II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/23HAI Vs Onor1-2
20/10/23AGandzasar Vs AI3-0
30/09/23HAI Vs Pyunik II3-1
26/09/23ABanants II Vs AI1-2
22/09/23HAI Vs Noah II1-1
30/08/23AArarat-Armenia II Vs AI3-4
26/08/23HAI Vs Alashkert II5-0
21/08/23ASyunik Vs AI1-0
14/08/23HAI Vs Andranik0-1
07/08/23HAI Vs Shirak II0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BKMA II
BKMA II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWW2.20
HomeDWWWW2.16
AwayWWLDW2.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%68%71%
AVG goals3.483.793.19
Over 1.5 %85%89%81%
Over 2.5 %62%74%52%
Over 3.5 %48%47%48%
Scored2.482.582.38
Conceded1.001.210.81
BTTS57%68%48%
Clean Sheet32%26%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat II
Ararat II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.67
HomeLWDWL1.68
AwayLLWWL1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%55%50%
AVG goals3.383.733.00
Over 1.5 %86%95%75%
Over 2.5 %64%77%50%
Over 3.5 %38%45%30%
Scored1.862.231.45
Conceded1.521.501.55
BTTS40%41%40%
Clean Sheet29%27%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GandzasarGandzasar2874
86%
2.6
6917+52
3.1
82%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.6
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II2863
71%
2.2
8131+50
4.0
93%
79%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.1
-
3SyunikSyunik2760
70%
2.2
5924+35
3.1
70%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.20.9
-
4Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2858
64%
2.1
6227+35
3.2
86%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Banants IIBanants II2842
36%
1.5
5134+17
3.0
75%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6AndranikAndranik2841
43%
1.5
3741-4
2.8
75%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.5
-
7Noah IINoah II2839
39%
1.4
5338+15
3.2
79%
50%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
-
8Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II2839
39%
1.4
4841+7
3.2
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9Alashkert IIAlashkert II2837
36%
1.3
4649-3
3.4
75%
71%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Shirak IIShirak II2833
36%
1.2
4150-9
3.2
71%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Ararat IIArarat II2832
32%
1.1
5247+5
3.5
79%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
12Pyunik IIPyunik II2830
32%
1.1
5057-7
3.8
82%
68%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
13MikaMika2817
14%
0.6
2160-39
2.9
71%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
14OnorOnor2716
15%
0.6
2382-59
3.9
78%
67%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
15NikarmNikarm2812
14%
0.4
27122-95
5.3
86%
79%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.4
-
Armenia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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