BKMA II’s recent form, a 2-3 loss to Banants II, still leaves them the clear favourite, with the model assigning an 82% chance of a home win. Their home scoring rate of 2.33 goals per game and a modest 1.0 conceded average against similar opposition underpin this confidence, especially when contrasted with Ararat II’s away record of 1.29 scored and 2.57 conceded. The expected total goals sit at 4.0, and the model predicts a 6+ total with a 21% probability, signalling a high-scoring affair. The most likely scoreline is 3-0 for BKMA II, carrying a 9.7% chance. The match result probabilities are 82%home win, 12% draw, and 6% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Home +2 handicap (98.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (95.7%), Under 7.5 (95.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.6%), Home or Draw (93.9%), Home +1 handicap (93.9%), and Over 1.5 (91.3%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a dominant home performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA II win
82.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
12.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat II win
5.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
0.87
3.40
0.60
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (24)
2.96
0.83
3.62
0.62
2.18
1.09
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.17
1.38
1.94
1.36
2.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
3.00
1.17
3.50
1.29
2.57
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
1.53
1.67
0.89
1.33
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.7%
Under 2.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
10.2%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
8.1%
4-0
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
4-1
6.3%
1-0
5.8%
1-1
5.5%
BKMA II goals ↓
Ararat II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
1
5.8%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
2
9.8%
7.8%
3.1%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
8.1%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
7.9%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA II goals (down), columns = Ararat II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
BKMA II is 1.10 points better than Ararat II in terms of average points per game (2.37 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
BKMA II is 1.13 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
BKMA II is 0.90 goals better than Ararat II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BKMA II or Draw
94.2%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers BKMA II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA II or Ararat II
87.9%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers BKMA II + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ararat II
17.9%
Avg Implied -
82%
12%
6%
covers Draw + Ararat II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BKMA II over/under 0.5
Over
95.5%
Under
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5
Over
60.1%
Under
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 3.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BKMA II, so a minus line means BKMA II give that many goals of a start and Ararat II receive them. At -1, BKMA II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BKMA II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BKMA II)
BKMA II -2
44.0%
Draw -2
20.7%
Ararat II +2
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BKMA II)
BKMA II -1
64.7%
Draw -1
17.5%
Ararat II +1
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BKMA II)
BKMA II +1
94.2%
Draw +1
4.1%
Ararat II -1
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BKMA II)
BKMA II +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.3%
Ararat II -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.33
1.53
0.20
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (24)
1.17
0.33
1.62
0.23
0.64
0.45
Clean sheet %
80% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.17
0.69
1.25
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.54
0.33
2.17
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.56
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.53
1.87
0.40
1.53
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
1.79
0.50
2.00
0.38
1.55
0.64
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.69
0.69
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.46
0.83
1.33
0.57
1.57
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq