BKMA II is the clear favourite to win against Lernayin Artsakh, with a predicted home win probability of 79%. The model's selection is a home win, and it's likely due to Lernayin Artsakh's poor away form, where they've averaged just 0.25 goals scored and 3.25 conceded against stronger opponents. This weakness should play into BKMA II's hands, who have a strong home record, averaging 3.46 goals scored and 0.69 conceded against weaker opponents.
The expected total goals in this match is 3.8, with the most likely score being 2-0, although the model's selection is a home win. BKMA II's home scoring and conceding statistics suggest they'll take advantage of Lernayin Artsakh's away woes.
The model suggests three selections: Over 1.5 (90.1%), Home win (79.4%), and Over 2.5 (73.6%). Lernayin Artsakh's away form is concerning, and BKMA II's home form is impressive. The probabilities for the match outcome are: Home win (79%), Draw (13%), Away win (7%).
Results analysis
BKMA II's 4-0 thrashing of Lernayin Artsakh extends their 2-game winning run, having previously defeated Ararat-Armenia II 2-0. The win was the expected outcome, as the model had predicted a home win with 79% probability. The model's selection was correct, as the home team dominated from start to finish. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5, Home win, and Over 2.5 all hitting, boasting probabilities of 90.1%, 79.4%, and 73.6% respectively. The most likely scores were 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1, with 2-0 being the most probable at 9.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA II win✓ Hit
79.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh win✗ Miss
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.57
1.03
3.07
0.93
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.88
1.50
2.00
1.75
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (22)
2.82
0.86
3.45
0.64
2.18
1.09
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.43
0.81
2.50
0.86
2.36
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.46
0.71
2.71
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (15)
1.07
2.67
1.00
2.50
1.14
2.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.6%
Under 2.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.6%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
8.2%
3-1
8.2%
4-0 ✓
7.1%
4-1
6.1%
1-1
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
BKMA II goals ↓
Lernayin Artsakh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
1.3%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
5.9%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
9.6%
8.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.6%
8.2%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
4
7.1%
6.1%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA II goals (down), columns = Lernayin Artsakh goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
BKMA II is 1.57 points better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of average points per game (2.37 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
BKMA II is 1.81 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals scored per game (2.57 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
BKMA II is 1.41 goals better than Lernayin Artsakh in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 2.45).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.37
1.33
0.33
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.09
0.32
1.55
0.27
0.64
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.44
1.00
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.92
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.47
1.00
0.62
1.38
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.67
1.73
0.60
1.53
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.25
1.25
1.50
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.73
0.55
1.91
0.36
1.55
0.73
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.53
0.38
1.50
0.50
1.57
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.54
0.43
2.00
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.67
0.38
1.12
0.86
2.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
BKMA II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
BKMA II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
BKMA II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
BKMA II and Lernayin Artsakh have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II