Blackburn’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just under a goal per match, while QPR’s away defence has been leaky, giving up over one and a quarter. The model favours a home win, with a 38% chance, a 32% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of a QPR victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. Blackburn’s average home scoring of 0.83 and conceding of 0.92 against similar opposition contrasts with QPR’s 1.0 scoring and 1.25 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (97.6% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 6% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (97.0% with a 5% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Blackburn, failed to deliver, with QPR snatching a 1-2 away win after Blackburn’s recent run of two straight defeats. The model had called a home win at 38% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%) was correct, as were Under 6.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (97.6%) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%). Each probability is expressed as a percentage and no other teams or scores are mentioned.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Blackburn win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 38.0% · @ 2.47
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.52
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.28
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.51
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Bet365
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
QPR win✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.81
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.85
Dafabet
2.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Blackburn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.20
0.79
1.00
1.00
1.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.22
0.80
1.00
1.08
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.67
1.60
0.93
1.47
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.29
1.75
1.33
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.3%
@ 1.32-5.7%
Under 1.5
34.7%
@ 3.23+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.68
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.1%
@ 2.01-9.9%
Under 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.78+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
SBO
2.06
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
@ 3.49-9.3%
Under 3.5
82.4%
@ 1.28+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Unibet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.1%
@ 1.77-7.6%
No
54.9%
@ 1.97+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
No
10Bet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 5.90+7.1%
0-0
12.7%@ 8.75+7.6%
1-0
11.8%@ 7.41+5.8%
0-1
10.2%@ 8.04+4.6%
2-1
7.8%@ 8.98+2.8%
2-0
7.6%@ 11.36+3.7%
1-2 ✓
6.8%@ 9.70+2.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 12.90+2.4%
Blackburn goals ↓
QPR goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.8%
2.0%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.6%
7.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Blackburn goals (down), columns = QPR goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Blackburn is 0.13 points worse than QPR in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Blackburn is 0.41 goals worse than QPR in terms of goals scored per game (0.91 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Blackburn is 0.37 goals better than QPR in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Blackburn is 2.0 percentage points better than QPR in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Blackburn
For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QPR
For 5.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Blackburn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.0
10.3
3.8
3.6
4.0
21.0
20.0
22.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.1
11.2
11.0
4.0
4.4
3.5
20.1
20.2
20.0
vs Similar (40)
10.4
10.9
9.9
3.8
3.4
4.1
21.1
20.0
22.1
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
3.0
-
3.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
62%
72%
52%
56%
52%
60%
44%
36%
52%
% under line
38%
28%
48%
44%
48%
40%
56%
64%
48%
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.2
11.2
3.6
3.8
3.4
20.7
21.2
20.3
vs Stronger (9)
11.4
9.0
13.4
2.9
2.8
3.0
21.4
19.8
22.8
vs Similar (41)
10.0
9.2
10.7
3.8
4.0
3.5
20.6
21.5
19.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
50%
58%
54%
58%
50%
42%
46%
38%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
46%
42%
50%
58%
54%
62%
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.1%
@ 1.68+9.8%
Under 9.5
34.9%
@ 2.08-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.7%
@ 1.95+3.0%
Under 3.5
49.3%
@ 1.77-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
41.2%
Under 21.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Blackburn or Draw✗ Miss
69.6%
Avg Implied 66.7% · @ 1.40
Edge
+2.9%
38%
32%
30%
covers Blackburn + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Blackburn or QPR✓ Hit
68.1%
Avg Implied 71.5% · @ 1.31
Edge
-3.4%
38%
32%
30%
covers Blackburn + QPR
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Draw or QPR✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied 61.8% · @ 1.52
Edge
+0.5%
38%
32%
30%
covers Draw + QPR
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Blackburn over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.7%
@ 1.28-3.9%
Under
31.3%
@ 3.38+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Blackburn over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.3%
@ 2.42-6.3%
Under
67.7%
@ 1.52+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Pinnacle
2.43
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Blackburn over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 5.63-5.3%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Blackburn over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 13.58-4.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
QPR over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.33-6.1%
Under
36.2%
@ 3.08+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
QPR over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.0%
@ 2.66-8.1%
Under
73.0%
@ 1.44+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
QPR over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.40-6.2%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.08+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
QPR over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 15.25-4.3%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Blackburn, so a minus line means Blackburn give that many goals of a start and QPR receive them. At -1, Blackburn must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Blackburn win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Blackburn)Actual: QPR
Blackburn -2
5.3%
@ 10.58-3.1%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 6.59-2.4%
QPR +2
83.6%
@ 1.14+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Away
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Blackburn)Actual: QPR
Blackburn -1
16.4%
@ 4.93-1.8%
Draw -1
21.3%
@ 4.03-1.1%
QPR +1
62.3%
@ 1.51+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Handicap +1 (Blackburn)Actual: Draw
Blackburn +1
69.6%
@ 1.40+5.4%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.35-2.2%
QPR -1
11.9%
@ 5.93-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Away
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Handicap +2 (Blackburn)Actual: Blackburn
Blackburn +2
88.1%
@ 1.09+5.6%
Draw +2
8.5%
@ 8.00-2.8%
QPR -2
3.4%
@ 14.50-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Blackburn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.29
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.40
0.60
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.71
0.92
0.58
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.5%
@ 1.40+0.2%
Under 0.5
33.5%
@ 2.76-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.8%
@ 2.91-3.3%
Under 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.37+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 7.55-3.6%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Blackburn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.0%
@ 2.07+1.0%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.69-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Blackburn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 6.46-3.3%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.08+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Blackburn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 17.00-3.8%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
QPR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.4%
@ 2.22-4.6%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.61+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
QPR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 7.40-2.9%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
QPR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 18.75-3.8%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Blackburn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.36
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.70
0.40
0.40
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.87
1.07
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.58
0.83
0.75
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.25-0.6%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.63+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.2%
@ 2.19-4.4%
Under 1.5
61.8%
@ 1.63+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 4.81-4.8%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.16+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Blackburn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.5%
@ 1.77-1.8%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.94+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Blackburn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.8%
@ 4.74-3.7%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.15+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Blackburn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.50-4.7%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
QPR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.2%
@ 1.84-5.1%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.86+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
QPR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.7%
@ 5.32-3.7%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.12+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
QPR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 13.38-4.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.0%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.08
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
William Hil
1.07
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.6%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.4%
1.28
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.1%
1.39
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.33
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.0%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.5%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.42
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
+3.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Blackburn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andri Guðjohnsen60%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Todd Cantwell17%
S. McLoughlin17%
Ryoya Morishita17%
J. Fevrier17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Harry Pickering0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Tom Atcheson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Todd Cantwell50%
A. Forshaw40%
Sam Morsy40%
S. McLoughlin33%
Harry Pickering25%
Andri Guðjohnsen20%
J. Garrett20%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryoya Morishita33%
Harry Pickering25%
Andri Guðjohnsen20%
Ryan Alebiosu20%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Todd Cantwell17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
S. McLoughlin0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oladapo Afolayan33%
Todd Cantwell33%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Harry Pickering0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
S. McLoughlin0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Andri Guðjohnsen0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Smyth25%
Koki Saito25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Jimmy Dunne20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter50%
Ronnie Edwards40%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tariq Lamptey33%
Harvey Vale25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Ronnie Edwards20%
Amadou Salif Mbengue20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale50%
Richard Kone33%
Kwame Poku25%
Alfie Lloyd25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Blackburn's squad is €35m less valuable than QPR's (€36m vs €71m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Blackburn's attack is €14m less valuable than QPR's (€15m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Blackburn's midfield is €8m less valuable than QPR's (€7m vs €15m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Blackburn's defence is €13m less valuable than QPR's (€14m vs €27m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston