This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.33
1.33
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.86
1.33
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.50
1.11
1.67
0.89
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.38+0.6%
Under 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.57-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.0%
Under 3.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0 ✓
11.4%
1-0
10.3%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.5%
Boavista goals ↓
Rio Ave goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.8%
7.7%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.6%
3.0%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Boavista goals (down), columns = Rio Ave goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AVS
3.00
Sporting CP
2.65
Benfica
2.35
FC Porto
2.12
SC Braga
2.00
Guimaraes
1.85
Moreirense
1.62
Arouca
1.35
Famalicao
1.24
Casa Pia
1.12
Farense
1.09
Rio Ave
1.09
GIL Vicente
1.06
Estoril
0.97
Estrela
0.97
Boavista
0.94
Portimonense
0.89
Vizela
0.76
Chaves
0.68
Boavista is 0.15 points worse than Rio Ave in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.82
Benfica
2.26
SC Braga
2.09
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
1.85
Arouca
1.59
Guimaraes
1.53
Estoril
1.44
Farense
1.35
GIL Vicente
1.24
Boavista
1.15
Portimonense
1.14
Casa Pia
1.12
Rio Ave
1.12
Famalicao
1.09
Vizela
1.06
Moreirense
1.06
Estrela
0.97
Chaves
0.91
Boavista is 0.03 goals better than Rio Ave in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.79
Benfica
0.82
Sporting CP
0.85
AVS
1.00
Moreirense
1.03
Guimaraes
1.12
Famalicao
1.21
Rio Ave
1.26
Casa Pia
1.47
SC Braga
1.47
Arouca
1.47
Farense
1.50
GIL Vicente
1.53
Estrela
1.56
Estoril
1.71
Boavista
1.82
Vizela
1.94
Portimonense
2.11
Chaves
2.12
Boavista is 0.56 goals worse than Rio Ave in terms of goals conceded per game (1.82 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto
64%
Benfica
59%
Sporting CP
59%
SC Braga
57%
Arouca
54%
Vizela
50%
GIL Vicente
49%
Rio Ave
49%
Estoril
49%
Guimaraes
48%
Boavista
48%
Famalicao
47%
Estrela
47%
Moreirense
46%
Portimonense
46%
Casa Pia
44%
Chaves
43%
Farense
42%
AVS
35%
Boavista is 0.9 percentage points worse than Rio Ave in terms of average possession (48% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Boavista
For 4.0 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
For 3.1 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Boavista
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.0
3.5
2.4
29.0
29.5
28.5
vs Stronger (37)
9.7
9.5
9.9
3.2
4.0
2.2
29.1
29.8
28.1
vs Similar (13)
10.8
13.5
9.5
2.4
1.6
2.9
29.0
28.0
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
54%
38%
46%
48%
44%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
54%
46%
62%
54%
52%
56%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
8.6
10.8
3.0
3.2
2.7
29.7
30.6
28.8
vs Stronger (11)
11.4
8.7
13.5
4.2
4.4
4.0
28.7
31.0
27.0
vs Similar (29)
8.7
7.7
9.5
2.8
2.9
2.6
30.5
31.1
29.9
vs Weaker (10)
10.8
10.7
11.0
2.2
2.8
1.2
28.8
29.0
28.0
% over line
38%
23%
54%
42%
52%
32%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
62%
77%
46%
58%
48%
68%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AVS
12.1
Farense
11.7
Estrela
11.1
Chaves
11.0
Guimaraes
10.8
Portimonense
10.6
Vizela
10.5
Benfica
10.5
FC Porto
10.3
Estoril
10.3
Casa Pia
10.1
Rio Ave
10.1
Moreirense
9.9
GIL Vicente
9.7
Famalicao
9.7
Boavista
9.5
SC Braga
9.4
Arouca
9.0
Sporting CP
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Boavista
6.5
Famalicao
6.5
Guimaraes
6.1
FC Porto
6.0
Arouca
6.0
Chaves
5.8
Estoril
5.8
Portimonense
5.7
Vizela
5.6
Farense
5.6
AVS
5.5
GIL Vicente
5.4
Estrela
5.4
Rio Ave
5.2
Sporting CP
5.1
SC Braga
5.1
Moreirense
4.9
Benfica
4.8
Casa Pia
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
31.0
Chaves
30.8
Rio Ave
30.5
Boavista
29.4
Farense
29.2
FC Porto
28.4
Vizela
28.3
Arouca
28.2
Guimaraes
28.1
Portimonense
27.8
AVS
27.7
Moreirense
27.6
Estoril
27.3
Estrela
26.6
Casa Pia
26.6
GIL Vicente
26.5
SC Braga
24.2
Sporting CP
24.0
Benfica
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.1%
Under 9.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
88.8%
Under 21.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Boavista
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.53
1.00
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (23)
0.39
0.87
0.31
0.92
0.50
0.80
vs Similar (7)
1.71
0.57
2.00
1.50
1.60
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.33
0.60
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.61
0.22
0.78
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Boavista
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.07
0.73
0.80
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (23)
0.52
1.00
0.77
0.77
0.20
1.30
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.29
0.50
1.00
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
1.00
0.73
0.20
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Boavista) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Boavista over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boavista over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Boavista
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tiago Morais35%
Róbert Boženík19%
Bruno Lourenço16%
Vincent Sasso12%
Salvador Agra10%
Miguel Reisinho10%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Joel Silva7%
Rodrigo Abascal7%
Gaius Makouta7%
Martim Tavares5%
Ilija Vukotić4%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Machado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastián Pérez46%
Pedro Malheiro35%
Gaius Makouta30%
Rodrigo Abascal28%
Chidozie Awaziem25%
Salvador Agra23%
Miguel Reisinho23%
Ilija Vukotić18%
Vincent Sasso18%
Tiago Morais18%
Jeriel De Santis17%
Luís Santos16%
Filipe Ferreira15%
Róbert Boženík13%
Bruno Lourenço12%
Bruno Onyemaechi12%
João Gonçalves12%
Berna11%
Joel Silva7%
Ibrahima Camará7%
Martim Tavares5%
Masaki Watai0%
Machado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Morais12%
Martim Tavares9%
Pedro Malheiro9%
Gaius Makouta7%
Miguel Reisinho6%
Róbert Boženík6%
Luís Santos5%
Chidozie Awaziem4%
Bruno Onyemaechi4%
Filipe Ferreira4%
Salvador Agra3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Rodrigo Abascal0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Róbert Boženík42%
Tiago Morais6%
Martim Tavares5%
Pedro Malheiro4%
Rodrigo Abascal3%
Bruno Lourenço3%
Masaki Watai0%
Salvador Agra0%
Ibrahima Camará0%
Vincent Sasso0%
Filipe Ferreira0%
Ilija Vukotić0%
Gaius Makouta0%
Miguel Reisinho0%
Chidozie Awaziem0%
Sebastián Pérez0%
Jeriel De Santis0%
João Gonçalves0%
Luís Santos0%
Bruno Onyemaechi0%
Berna0%
Joel Silva0%
Machado0%
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aziz31%
Emmanuel Boateng26%
Joca Fernandes14%
Leonardo Ruiz14%
Aderllan Santos9%
André Pereira9%
Costinha9%
Zé Manuel8%
João Teixeira8%
Marios Vrousai7%
Úmaro Embaló7%
Gonçalo Rodrigues7%
Renato Pantalon5%
Miguel Nóbrega5%
Amine Oudrhiri3%
Fábio Ronaldo3%
Adrien Silva0%
Hernâni0%
Patrick William0%
Sávio0%
Jhonatan0%
Ukra0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Josué Sá0%
João Graça0%
Helder Sá0%
Nuno Namora0%
Magrão0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mateo Tanlongo42%
Miguel Nóbrega36%
João Graça36%
Renato Pantalon32%
Emmanuel Boateng30%
André Pereira27%
Patrick William25%
Josué Sá25%
Amine Oudrhiri24%
Aderllan Santos22%
Adrien Silva20%
Vítor Gomes18%
Ukra17%
Jhonatan15%
João Teixeira15%
Sávio14%
Gonçalo Rodrigues13%
Costinha12%
Fábio Ronaldo9%
Zé Manuel8%
Bruno Ventura8%
Joca Fernandes7%
Úmaro Embaló7%
Leonardo Ruiz7%
Hernâni0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Aziz0%
Helder Sá0%
Nuno Namora0%
Magrão0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Helder Sá25%
João Teixeira15%
Costinha15%
Sávio14%
Aziz12%
Fábio Ronaldo9%
Hernâni8%
Mateo Tanlongo8%
Emmanuel Boateng7%
Joca Fernandes7%
Úmaro Embaló7%
Josué Sá4%
Adrien Silva0%
André Pereira0%
Patrick William0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Gonçalo Rodrigues0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Jhonatan0%
Ukra0%
Zé Manuel0%
Vítor Gomes0%
Miguel Nóbrega0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Aderllan Santos0%
Leonardo Ruiz0%
João Graça0%
Nuno Namora0%
Magrão0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Boateng22%
Leonardo Ruiz14%
Aziz12%
André Pereira9%
Miguel Nóbrega9%
Joca Fernandes7%
Gonçalo Rodrigues7%
Aderllan Santos3%
Adrien Silva0%
Hernâni0%
Patrick William0%
Sávio0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Jhonatan0%
Ukra0%
Zé Manuel0%
Vítor Gomes0%
João Teixeira0%
Úmaro Embaló0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Josué Sá0%
João Graça0%
Costinha0%
Helder Sá0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Nuno Namora0%
Magrão0%
Bruno Ventura0%
Mateo Tanlongo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
Benfica
FC Porto
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Arouca
Famalicao
Casa Pia
Farense
GIL Vicente
Estoril
Estrela
Portimonense
Vizela
Chaves
AVS